Jim Walmsley: "I'd like to think I'm around 2:10 shape..I've legitimately put in the training and the work to contend up front."

dont think so crazy boy wrote:

Well let me fill you in. Kipchoge is never running under 2:06 in a championship race without pacers. The Olympic championship races are typically in grueling weather and usually not on flat courses, so Kipchoge's winning time in Tokyo would be similar to 2016...near 2:09. In that case, if Walmsley ran 2:10 he would be withing 400 meters and that could mean a bronze. Get real.

Walmsley is not going to the Olympics and if it works out for Jim he might end up in 10th place in a best case scenario. After that the Walmsley fans will say that he didn't taper and he is just training for Comrades.

Wildhorse wrote:

Buzz kill wrote:

He is not gonna make the team.

Let's remember, Jim has not run one Marathon yet.

This is a good point. Not only does he need to be fit, but he needs to nail his first marathon, which is its own challenge. And let's remember it'll be his marathon debut because he chose to debut at the trials, already 2 years ago he announced that was his plan. He had plenty of time to race a couple marathons to be better prepared. His choice, though. Good luck to Jim.

I'm curious about those new Hokas he'll be wearing. I hope Hoka stepped up their game and gave him a fair chance.

You two realized of course he's a ultra-marathoner right?

Buzz kill wrote:

dont think so crazy boy wrote:

Well let me fill you in. Kipchoge is never running under 2:06 in a championship race without pacers. The Olympic championship races are typically in grueling weather and usually not on flat courses, so Kipchoge's winning time in Tokyo would be similar to 2016...near 2:09. In that case, if Walmsley ran 2:10 he would be withing 400 meters and that could mean a bronze. Get real.

Walmsley is not going to the Olympics and if it works out for Jim he might end up in 10th place in a best case scenario. After that the Walmsley fans will say that he didn't taper and he is just training for Comrades.

Comrades is a month before the Olympics. So they could say he didn't recover well. But the taper for Comrades will not be a factor.

This is fantasy football for running geeks, you numb skulls with a dash of radio sports talk.

It's just plain fun to argue about whether your team will make the playoffs, win the pennant or make it to the Olympics.

It's just fun. Don't make it so serious just because you also run.

Sledge_Hammer wrote:

You two realized of course he's a ultra-marathoner right?

You one, we know that. But just because you can run ultramarathons that does not mean you can run Marathons on the highest level. Nobody thinks that Jim can't manage the distance but people are skeptical if he can run 2:12 in Atlanta.

dont think so crazy boy wrote:

kkkjjjhhh wrote:

I can’t believe us fans are hoping a guy that “thinks” he can run 2:10 makes our team. This guy will be over a MILE behind the medals “if” he can run as fast as he “thinks” he can run. Pathetic to have so much hype over him.

Back the real contenders. Not the talkers.

2:10 a mile behind the winner? Are you new to the sport? Don't know much about it?

Well let me fill you in. Kipchoge is never running under 2:06 in a championship race without pacers. The Olympic championship races are typically in grueling weather and usually not on flat courses, so Kipchoge's winning time in Tokyo would be similar to 2016...near 2:09. In that case, if Walmsley ran 2:10 he would be withing 400 meters and that could mean a bronze. Get real.

Are you new to the sport? Even if in 2:10 shape, the usual Olympic marathon strategy would never allow Walmsley to come close to that. In 2016, leaders went through the half in 65:55. Only three runners went on to break 2:11. You think Jimbo is closing in a 63? Because he can barely do that fresh...

If Kipchoge runs 2:09, Walmsley is running 2:15+. That said, Walmsley will never have the opportunity to run against kipchoge because he’s not good enough to qualify.

He is definitely good enough to qualify. He is one of like 15 people with an actual chance to qualify. He won't and shouldn't be favored over about 6-10 of the top guys, but could make it to Sapporo if some people have had injuries, have a bad day, etc. His consistency and durability will be his strength in this race.

Walmsley is not a plodding endurance monster. He was an FL qualifier in HS, ran 13:52 and 29:08 in college, and is clearly more adept at the longer distances. For instance, we consider Fauble a serious contender for a spot and Fauble has a similar track record -- FL qualifier, 14:00 and 28:43 in college. These guys are not that far apart talent-wise and Walmsley has shown himself to be very durable and consistent in his training. I don't understand the hate for him outside of just getting annoyed with how much the ultra guys love him.

I think the only lock for a spot is Rupp, with Korir a near-lock. I would pick Ward for the third spot with a gun to my head. But Walmsley, Fauble, Lagat, Abdi, Riley, Mock, and some dark horses with Brian Shrader can all contend.

Also, historically the 3rd-best qualifier for us has not been super strong.

Brian Sell (2008) never broke 14 in the 5K, 1:02:36 / 2:10:47.

Dan Browne (2004) never ran faster than 1:03:09 / 2:11.

Top 3 were strong in 2012, but the drop-off afterward was pretty severe and Walmsley is as talented as any of the guys that were 4-10. Same goes for 2016.

rojo wrote:

1) He's going to be racing the Olympic Trials in a prototype pair of HOKA ONE ONE shoes that he loves and has nicknamed "The Trials Dagger."

Hold up what the hell? Prototype Hoka shoes? I'm not saying they'll be as good as the AlphaFlys, but if Nike athletes aren't allowed to race in prototype shoes that aren't available to the market, why should Hoka athletes be allowed to? Just cuz it's not Nike the big scary corporation trying to slip in a pair of shoes that no one else will have, doesn't mean it's fair to the other competitors. Am I the only one who's noticed this?

Or did I misunderstand something from the headline (I haven't listened to the podcast), and these will be available to other runners?

Dan Browne ran 27:43 for the 10000.

hollup wrote:

rojo wrote:

1) He's going to be racing the Olympic Trials in a prototype pair of HOKA ONE ONE shoes that he loves and has nicknamed "The Trials Dagger."

Hold up what the hell? Prototype Hoka shoes? I'm not saying they'll be as good as the AlphaFlys, but if Nike athletes aren't allowed to race in prototype shoes that aren't available to the market, why should Hoka athletes be allowed to? Just cuz it's not Nike the big scary corporation trying to slip in a pair of shoes that no one else will have, doesn't mean it's fair to the other competitors. Am I the only one who's noticed this?

Or did I misunderstand something from the headline (I haven't listened to the podcast), and these will be available to other runners?

The prototype shoe ban does not take effect until April 30, 2020. So people can still run in prototypes for now. They will need to be released to the public 4 months before the Olympics if they want people to be able to run in them for that race, though.

The prototypes still can't exceed the 40mm stack height requirement or the more than 1 carbon plate limitation.

?? wrote:

Dan Browne ran 27:43 for the 10000.

Correct, and 13:16 for the 5K. His times got significantly worse the more he went up in distance. Walmsley already has a faster HM than Browne.

Buzz kill wrote:

Sledge_Hammer wrote:

You two realized of course he's a ultra-marathoner right?

You one, we know that. But just because you can run ultramarathons that does not mean you can run Marathons on the highest level. Nobody thinks that Jim can't manage the distance but people are skeptical if he can run 2:12 in Atlanta.

+1.

Walming up wrote:

JMar Superstar wrote:

More likely he's just catnip for trolls here like LoneStarXC. People chiefly click to see the troll and fanboy reaction, nothing more.

People are interested in Walmsley.

Maybe so, but I'm not certain. I figure that less than half the respondents to this thread (and fewer than half the lurkers who just click and read) listened to the POD.

So people can wear AlphaFlys at the Trials? That's f**ked. Kinda defeats the whole point of the ruling.

tally wrote:

The most pertinent data we have are his road half marathons.

Last month in Tempe, he ran 1:03:10, adjusting for the course mis-measurement, and finished seventh place.

Last year, he ran 1:04:00 at Houston.

Those times do not suggest 2:10:00.

Nothing at all against the guy, but this is a show me sport.

As a marketing ploy, not running a marathon before the trials is, I will concede, a smart move, because it keeps up the suspense and intrigue.

This is very misleading. Yuki Kawauchi has track PRs of 13:58 and 29:02 and a road 10k PR of 29:54. Around the same time he ran 2:08:14 for a marathon. There are many Japanese runners with similar outlier marathon times.

I don't think it's totally bogus to think Jim can run 2;10, he just has to prove it.

hollup wrote:

So people can wear AlphaFlys at the Trials? That's f**ked. Kinda defeats the whole point of the ruling.

The point of the ruling was to indefinitely prohibit shoes with more than 1 carbon fiber plate and a higher than 40mm stack height. The rumors about the Kipchoge prototype were that the shoe had 3 CF plates and a near 50mm stack height. The new Alphafly is within the World Athletics guidelines. People will be able to wear them at the Olympics too, and into the future unless the rules change. They will not be able to wear the 50mm, 3 plate prototypes.

Any company could make a prototype like the Alphafly NEXT% and have their runners in them in the trials.

If he thinks he's gonna run 2:10 then he will probably run 2:12?

Athletes tend to be optimistic.

Even as an ultramarathoner, there is always a penalty for debuting at the Marathon distance compared to "what your training suggests".

I think he will run 2:12-2:14 for trying to push the pace too hard initially.

But all of this does not matter anyway ... Even 2:10 does not even compare with the top marathoner - it's far, far behind. 2:10 is insignificant really. Nobody wins any world class marathon with such PR anymore.

Can he make top 3 at the Trials? Very small chance. Will he have any impact on the sport of marathon running, will he ever be remembered as a prominent olympic long distance athlete? Zero chance.