Looks like Bumbi and Derrick just ran 1:04:10 half’s in New Orleans. Tough to interpret. Doubt they raced it all out since they finished together a couple minutes slower than their PRs. Maybe they ran target marathon pace?
Looks like Bumbi and Derrick just ran 1:04:10 half’s in New Orleans. Tough to interpret. Doubt they raced it all out since they finished together a couple minutes slower than their PRs. Maybe they ran target marathon pace?
The ghost of meb wrote:
mo fan wrote:
Rupp will run with the lead group at 2:12 pace until 10k to go. Then he will start running 4:30s and win it by 30 seconds at least. You heard it here first
Clipping Walmsley's heels between miles 19-21!!
Touché!
Thanks for the recap, I certainly had all of that in mind. I know better than to use glass-half-full goggles in viewing chronic injury cycles in long-in-the-tooth runners. The odds are typically poor. There are always exceptions that prove the rule. Plus better living through science.
Dexy's Midnight Runner wrote:
Full disclosure: I'd rather not see Rupp make the team, so I can't be 100% confident my bias isn't influencing my view on this.
This is all I needed to know^^
If Rupp is healthy at the start of the trails (and he seems to be now), he could run away from people after 10k, 20k, or take a quick stretch break at 40k and still win.
He just jogged a time that would be a dream for most qualifiers. Don’t be silly.
BTC Boys wrote:
Looks like Bumbi and Derrick just ran 1:04:10 half’s in New Orleans. Tough to interpret. Doubt they raced it all out since they finished together a couple minutes slower than their PRs. Maybe they ran target marathon pace?
Ran in the Alphaflys, btw.....
Remember when Chris used to win races? Sad.
BowermanBras wrote:
BTC Boys wrote:
Looks like Bumbi and Derrick just ran 1:04:10 half’s in New Orleans. Tough to interpret. Doubt they raced it all out since they finished together a couple minutes slower than their PRs. Maybe they ran target marathon pace?
Ran in the Alphaflys, btw.....
Remember when Chris used to win races? Sad.
Does Chris Derrick have a regular job?
He seems smart and went to Stanford. I bet he could do well in something else. He is not quite good enough for me to think a running career has the highest value for him.
I am surprised he did not go after something more competitive.
Rupp will not have it easy at all.
His big fear is Leonard Korir.
The last two races between the two, Rupp lost to Korir's kick. 2018 US XC, Korir dropped him like an empty IV bag.
2017 outdoor champs in Sacramento, not only did Korir outkick him to keep him off the world 10k team (when Rupp bypassed his marathon spot as he thought he was a lock) but Mead, Kipchirchir, Korir and Simbassa all outkicked him.
Leaving it to a kick is not what Rupp wants. Remember, Korir also outkicked Lilesa at the Houston half right after Rio.
I also dont think, with three spots on the line, that Rupp will control the race. Army has five guys entered and Kebenei is debuting. It will be a dog fight!
GBohannon wrote:
NERunner053 wrote:
Where is the women's chattter? About a dozen women with realistic chances to make the team. I think the Big 4 on the men's side are gonna be pretty tough to beat.
I will post a women’s thread this afternoon. I was going to last night, but got swept up in the excitement of Millrose and drank a couple too many beers to put together anything worthwhile.
The women's thread is up for those who are interested.
As if this weekend Ritz is still healthy.
Leonard is still in Kenya but very fit. Returns to Colorado next week.
Word from Colorado is that Haron Lagat is cleated to run in Atlanta.
My darkhorse pick is Wilkerson Given...maybe just because he’s got that name.
Solid write up on the men's side. As much as I want to think Ritz will make top-3 being a GR area resident myself, I have not seen much from him on social media (beyond his coaching side) to indicate that will happen. At the least I want to finish it strong in the top-5 to end his pro career.
So I agree with Rupp and Ward..but the 3rd member is a huge toss up.
Derrick and Bumbalough are definitely threats for the #3 spot due to the Alphaflys. They both just cruised 64:10, even paced, in New Orleans, step for step the whole time.
Here's somebody nobody is mentioning though...CJ Albertson.
Just this morning he ran 27 miles at 5:09 pace on slightly rolling hills. Last mile 4:43 or so. He's recently done 30 mile long runs at around 5:15 pace as well.
People say that Walmsley's ultra career is his advantage because this course will run more like a 50k....but I think CJ would smoke Jim in a 50k road race.
Only downside to CJ is that he has to wear the Hyperion Elite...and even with that he's a major darkhorse for 3rd-5th
frankly frank wrote:
Rupp will not have it easy at all.
His big fear is Leonard Korir.
The last two races between the two, Rupp lost to Korir's kick. 2018 US XC, Korir dropped him like an empty IV bag.
2017 outdoor champs in Sacramento, not only did Korir outkick him to keep him off the world 10k team (when Rupp bypassed his marathon spot as he thought he was a lock) but Mead, Kipchirchir, Korir and Simbassa all outkicked him.
Leaving it to a kick is not what Rupp wants. Remember, Korir also outkicked Lilesa at the Houston half right after Rio.
I also dont think, with three spots on the line, that Rupp will control the race. Army has five guys entered and Kebenei is debuting. It will be a dog fight!
This just made me laugh, you are pointing to an off season XC race and a 10k after he had moved to the marathon?
Here is a tip for you, running a fast 10k at the end of a marathon isn't the same as running a 10k on the track. If rupp remains healthy he is on the team, it would be surprising if he didn't win, but given it is the trials, sometimes folks are less concerned about winning and more concerned about an easy qualifying experience. What bad races has he run in his career. The cold day in Boston, His comeback from surgery, and I guess you could count his 2:06:xx at chicago when he needed surgery.
Of course Rupp isn't going to control the race, he will sit on the lead back, and bide his time depending on how the pace plays out. I'm sure he respects the top folks, but it would be silly to fear them.
macdaddy wrote:
Dexy's Midnight Runner wrote:
Full disclosure: I'd rather not see Rupp make the team, so I can't be 100% confident my bias isn't influencing my view on this.
This is all I needed to know^^
If Rupp is healthy at the start of the trails (and he seems to be now), he could run away from people after 10k, 20k, or take a quick stretch break at 40k and still win.
He just jogged a time that would be a dream for most qualifiers. Don’t be silly.
Ok. Because your hyperbole isn't silly at all, big guy.
reed wrote:
Derrick and Bumbalough are definitely threats for the #3 spot due to the Alphaflys. They both just cruised 64:10, even paced, in New Orleans, step for step the whole time.
Here's somebody nobody is mentioning though...CJ Albertson.
Just this morning he ran 27 miles at 5:09 pace on slightly rolling hills. Last mile 4:43 or so. He's recently done 30 mile long runs at around 5:15 pace as well.
People say that Walmsley's ultra career is his advantage because this course will run more like a 50k....but I think CJ would smoke Jim in a 50k road race.
Only downside to CJ is that he has to wear the Hyperion Elite...and even with that he's a major darkhorse for 3rd-5th
CJ does do impressive workouts, but I feel like he goes a bit too hard. He did a 30 miler at 5:15 pace before CIM, and only ran 2:13 on a fast course. If we use that as a measuring stick for Atlanta, I don't see him being a serious threat for the team, but a likely top 10-15 guy.
reed wrote:
Derrick and Bumbalough are definitely threats for the #3 spot due to the Alphaflys. They both just cruised 64:10, even paced, in New Orleans, step for step the whole time.
Here's somebody nobody is mentioning though...CJ Albertson.
Just this morning he ran 27 miles at 5:09 pace on slightly rolling hills. Last mile 4:43 or so. He's recently done 30 mile long runs at around 5:15 pace as well.
People say that Walmsley's ultra career is his advantage because this course will run more like a 50k....but I think CJ would smoke Jim in a 50k road race.
Only downside to CJ is that he has to wear the Hyperion Elite...and even with that he's a major darkhorse for 3rd-5th
Strange. Both around 2:14 marathon efforts. Either he is going essentially all out in these long runs like they are peak workouts, or he can run 2:11-12 in Atlanta.
Clipping Walmsley's heels between miles 19-21!![/quote]
JW ran is tapering for the Trials.
Did a nice easy 50 km at Pemberton yesterday in 2:49.
frankly frank wrote:
Rupp will not have it easy at all.
His big fear is Leonard Korir.
The last two races between the two, Rupp lost to Korir's kick. 2018 US XC, Korir dropped him like an empty IV bag.
2017 outdoor champs in Sacramento, not only did Korir outkick him to keep him off the world 10k team (when Rupp bypassed his marathon spot as he thought he was a lock) but Mead, Kipchirchir, Korir and Simbassa all outkicked him.
Leaving it to a kick is not what Rupp wants. Remember, Korir also outkicked Lilesa at the Houston half right after Rio.
I also dont think, with three spots on the line, that Rupp will control the race. Army has five guys entered and Kebenei is debuting. It will be a dog fight!
It will be interesting to see if WCAP pushes the pace to separate Korir from the all of the 2:10ish guys.
reed wrote:
Derrick and Bumbalough are definitely threats for the #3 spot due to the Alphaflys. They both just cruised 64:10, even paced, in New Orleans, step for step the whole time.
Here's somebody nobody is mentioning though...CJ Albertson.
Just this morning he ran 27 miles at 5:09 pace on slightly rolling hills. Last mile 4:43 or so. He's recently done 30 mile long runs at around 5:15 pace as well.
People say that Walmsley's ultra career is his advantage because this course will run more like a 50k....but I think CJ would smoke Jim in a 50k road race.
Only downside to CJ is that he has to wear the Hyperion Elite...and even with that he's a major darkhorse for 3rd-5th
Serious question, not a troll, but in regards to the BTC team, what is the point in traveling to a different city to cruise a half at what is presumably goal marathon pace? Did they do this as part of a larger workout? Clearly they must be running much harder efforts in training. 13.1 at goal MP is hardly a workout.
frankly frank wrote:
Rupp will not have it easy at all.
His big fear is Leonard Korir.
The last two races between the two, Rupp lost to Korir's kick. 2018 US XC, Korir dropped him like an empty IV bag.
2017 outdoor champs in Sacramento, not only did Korir outkick him to keep him off the world 10k team (when Rupp bypassed his marathon spot as he thought he was a lock) but Mead, Kipchirchir, Korir and Simbassa all outkicked him.
Leaving it to a kick is not what Rupp wants. Remember, Korir also outkicked Lilesa at the Houston half right after Rio.
I also dont think, with three spots on the line, that Rupp will control the race. Army has five guys entered and Kebenei is debuting. It will be a dog fight!
It will be interesting to see if the Army guys push the pace early. If so, there will be carnage up and down the course. Patience will matter.
@ GBohannon - you ever get your trials qualifier?!