The Favorites /top seeds
Galen Rupp - His 61:19 this morning proves that he is still the man to beat. While the course did have a net downhill of 350 ft, both Sam Chelanga and Matt Llano ran slower today than they did in Houston last month. Over the final 10k, Rupp managed to put 40+ seconds on Llano and over a minute on Chelanga. In Houston, Jared Ward (top American in that race) "only" beat Chelanga by 16 seconds and Llano by 22 seconds. Granted, comparing different races is never a perfect science. However, it does seem that Rupp's performance today was a level or two above what any of the guys did in Houston last month.
Leonard Korir - Korir was a stud on the track winning NCAA titles both indoors and outdoors and then making the Olympic 10k team in 2016. His career HM credentials (sub-60, wins in NYC and Houston) made it clear that he would be the best non-Rupp American at the marathon distance when he finally debuted. Sure enough, he ran 2:07:56 last fall in his debut making him the 5th fastest American ever. Despite limited (no?) racing since then, he seems to be a sure bet to make the team, barring injury.
Jared Ward - His marathon credentials are well-known. During his college days at BYU, he was unable to compete in his final XC season due to some type of silly costume race confusion. Instead of crying over missing the XC season, he jumped into the Chicago Marathon and came away with a 2:16 off of no specific training. Largely as a result of that race, he has focused his entire pro career on the marathon distance and has had great success. His 6th place finish at the 2016 Olypmics was a clear highlight as was his 2:09 in Boston. Last month, he finished as the top American finisher in Houston although many others were nipping at his heels.
Scott Fauble - He ran 2:09 right ahead of Ward in Boston to give him the 3rd fastest seed time heading into the Trials. He had some tough races this fall, but this was reportedly the result of some gait issues that have since been remedied. His group is very transparent with their training and things seems to be going smoothly for Faubs despite a bout with the flu last month. In the 2018 NYC race, he turned in a top 10 performance running lockstep with Ward for much of the race and coming in right behind him.
Second Tier
Shadrack Biwott - Despite a slew of top 10 finishes in Boston and NYC (3rd in Boston in '18, 4th in '17; 5th at NYC in '16, 9th in '18), he has never had a big breakthrough. He did not look good in the Houston half running a couple of minutes behind the top American group. However, he certainly can't be entirely discounted and could sneak onto the team if he is in top and a few others have an off day.
Bernard Lagat - The ageless wonder turned some heads with his 2:12:10 this summer. While a "normal" runner with a one-off 2:12:10 PR and little else to show at the marathon distance would not merit mention, Lagat is no normal runner.
Scott Smith - He ran neck and neck with Fauble in a few races before Fauble's breakthrough and they do almost all of their training together. He ran well in Chicago, but was only the 6th American. While I do not expect him to make the team, I do think he could beat all of the guys that got him there. Having Fauble to run with everyday is no small thing.
Chicago guys who beat Smith (Riley, Mock, Stinson, Bumbalough, McDonald) - It seems that if I consider Smith in the second tier, these guys should be listed as well. After all, they all beat him in Chicago. I think that was the best race that we will ever see from Riley and do not consider him a top 5 threat even though he was the top American on that day. Stinson and Mock stand out to me as the best 2 in that group of 5 guys. Stinson has been consistently strong in races at or around the half marathon distance to back up his Chicago result. Mock's run in Chicago was his debut (I think) so it seems he could really surprise people in Atlanta. I hope to see Bumby perform well, but think the highlight of his career will forever be beating Rupp in that one heat.
Others
Jim Walmsley - no explanation required. He is the only non-top 10 type guy that is on EVERYONE's radar. I am glad he is racing; it really adds a layer of intrigue. I think he will likely be in the 8th - 15th range and that will be a nice result. It would be epic if he pulled out a top 3 finish though.
Nico Montanez - He had a faster chip time than Ward in Houston. He has not done anything at the marathon distance to indicate that he can crack the top 10, but the Hosuton result was a big breakthrough and he has been a solid road guy throughout his career. Plus, I ate with him during an "elite athlete dinner" in Grand Rapids for the 25k a few years back. Despite the fact that my presence at the dinner was a bit of a stretch (I am WAY slower than Montanez), he was cool to me and was respectful when we were talking about race goals and mine was like 7 minutes slower than his.
Noah Droddy - the cult hero has put up some legit results to go with his iconic look.
Diego Estrada - A decent run in Chicago indicated that he may be "back from the dead". Remember, the dude did run that legendary sub-61 way back when.
I'm sure I am missing a ton of dudes, but this is what I've got for now. Please add and critique as you see fit.