The coronavirus panic proves how easily manipulated people are and how the media sensationalizes everything

fartlekpa wrote:

fartlekpa wrote:

Would you rather sell a stock a day too early or a day too late?

Corona virus has everything you need to take EARLY, MAXIMUM precautions:

1. Long incubation period

2. Transmission during incubation period before you know you're sick

3. Mild initial symptoms

Add to that the fact that Chinese gov't is almost definitely under reporting their numbers and even despite that they've employed some pretty significant restrictions--all likely far too late to contain this.

Further--keep in mind infection rates this early are major projections and should not be relied upon. You can pretty much disregard the R0. Systems are far too complex to make any real predictions about where this virus is going.

People who talk about influenza deaths are straight up idiots who need to a lesson in basic probability, precaution principles, and complex systems (includes CDC, WHO, etc).

Above is the first post I wrote on January 30th in response to the complete idiot who continues to stick his head in the sand. I rarely use Letsrun anymore but was curious as to what people were saying. At the time I was watching videos from China that included mass lock downs, coordinated spraying of streets and buildings with disinfectant, overnight erecting makeshift hospitals, burning bodies, and some very alarming footage leaked from inside their hospitals. I knew enough to know that it's not what people/countries say (ie. reported stats) but what they do that matters.

It's now 2 months later. I work in a major hospital in the northeast (not NY). 3 of our ICUs are at 100% capacity with only COVID patients. 4 other ICUs are about half filled with only COVID patients. Our Cardiac ICU doesn't have a single non-covid cardiac patient (though has several COVID positives in cardiogenic shock on VA ECMO). Many of our hospitals staff are out as a result of positive tests. Currently we increase by 10 ICU COVID patients every 24 hours (on average). Our institution is moving towards becoming almost entirely ICU based---meaning we are actively converting general medical wards to ICUs. We're planning on turning conference rooms and the chapel into either triage areas or rooms for patients. People are exhausted, and already signs of burnout exist. Patients range from 30-80 years old with a few outliers. Many are otherwise very healthy. My team and I are making due with the resources we have but it sucks knowing you are constantly exposed and putting your family at risk.

I'm somewhat incredulous at the people who are still playing this down. I'm not sure what else they need (and I gave up trying a week or two ago when it was clear my energies were needed in real life). I'm also dumbfounded by the people who maintain some bizarre level of optimism that things are getting better. Please don't do that. First of all, it's the default position--we're all hoping things get better. But your irrational insistence that things are better is just embarrassing. It's like calling yourself an anti-fascist. It's not impressive to proudly stand behind the default setting in life.

I got home tonight and after taking my daily sterilizing shower, washing my clothes, and wiping down everything I touched--just so I could hug and kiss my family I decided to unwind online and saw someone had bumped this thread, which I believe was the first to address the crisis (as "not serious"). I spent 5-10 minutes looking thru my posts from Jan/Feb and I can say I stand by every one. It really sucks we are where we are and I really wish people spent a little more time understanding how fragile our world really is.

Facts Matter? wrote:

fartlekpa wrote:

Above is the first post I wrote on January 30th in response to the complete idiot who continues to stick his head in the sand. I rarely use Letsrun anymore but was curious as to what people were saying. At the time I was watching videos from China that included mass lock downs, coordinated spraying of streets and buildings with disinfectant, overnight erecting makeshift hospitals, burning bodies, and some very alarming footage leaked from inside their hospitals. I knew enough to know that it's not what people/countries say (ie. reported stats) but what they do that matters.

It's now 2 months later. I work in a major hospital in the northeast (not NY). 3 of our ICUs are at 100% capacity with only COVID patients. 4 other ICUs are about half filled with only COVID patients. Our Cardiac ICU doesn't have a single non-covid cardiac patient (though has several COVID positives in cardiogenic shock on VA ECMO). Many of our hospitals staff are out as a result of positive tests. Currently we increase by 10 ICU COVID patients every 24 hours (on average). Our institution is moving towards becoming almost entirely ICU based---meaning we are actively converting general medical wards to ICUs. We're planning on turning conference rooms and the chapel into either triage areas or rooms for patients. People are exhausted, and already signs of burnout exist. Patients range from 30-80 years old with a few outliers. Many are otherwise very healthy. My team and I are making due with the resources we have but it sucks knowing you are constantly exposed and putting your family at risk.

I'm somewhat incredulous at the people who are still playing this down. I'm not sure what else they need (and I gave up trying a week or two ago when it was clear my energies were needed in real life). I'm also dumbfounded by the people who maintain some bizarre level of optimism that things are getting better. Please don't do that. First of all, it's the default position--we're all hoping things get better. But your irrational insistence that things are better is just embarrassing. It's like calling yourself an anti-fascist. It's not impressive to proudly stand behind the default setting in life.

I got home tonight and after taking my daily sterilizing shower, washing my clothes, and wiping down everything I touched--just so I could hug and kiss my family I decided to unwind online and saw someone had bumped this thread, which I believe was the first to address the crisis (as "not serious"). I spent 5-10 minutes looking thru my posts from Jan/Feb and I can say I stand by every one. It really sucks we are where we are and I really wish people spent a little more time understanding how fragile our world really is.

Great story, thanks for sharing. I was at Stanford Medical Center on Wednesday and there was no influx of patients. The first community spread case in the US was in the bay area so it's been months now. What I did see was a whole bunch of pediatric patients being treated for the flu, both in the pediatric ED and the PICU.

You still are too stuck in your own self glorification that you cannot see the point.

Even after more then 2 months, the coronavirus has not had the same impact on health and well being as the flu has in recent years. What you describe happening in hospitals, has happened before. The difference is that we did not overreact by destroying the economy and the lives of people who were not sick. I'm glad you have a job to go to, some people are not that fortunate. Some people won't recover from this and they are not infected. The response to COVID-19 is inconsistent with previous health crises. You may not remember how it was, but I do. The coronavirus is bad and no one is denying that, at least I am not. however, my opinion is that the flu is worse, as evidenced by previous years, 34,000 last flu season, 61,000 the year before.

I'd say STOP THE PANIC, but the horse is already out of that barn.

Health crises are not new, this response to the health crises is, and it's overblown!

Memories of 2017/2018

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/flu-killing-4-000-americans-145347522.htmlhttps://time.com/5107984/hospitals-handling-burden-flu-patients/https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/last-years-flu-broke-records-for-deaths-and-illnesses-new-cdc-numbers-show/2018/09/26/97cb43fc-c0ed-11e8-90c9-23f963eea204_story.html

Facts Matter? wrote:

I remember you wrote:

Here you are 2 months ago relying on the above figures. And today, you're still trying to hammer home that coronavirus isn't as serious as the flu. The flu, "232" deaths every day you yelled and exclaimed. The flu you said was exponentially more contagious.

Now you are looking at over 1,000 deaths per day from coronavirus and today so far almost 30,000 new cases, medical supplies running out, hospitals overwhelmed, etc. And this is with measures in place trying to restrict the spread.

Come on, you have to feel like a total idiot now? How many times can you double down on how wrong you were?

LMAO

Facts:

Flu deaths as of today: 24,000

Coronavirus deaths as of today: 7,067

24,000 is still greater than 7,067 and this is more than 2 months later.

If the coronavirus is more deadly, it should kill more people than not only this flu season, but any flu season including the 61,000 killed in 2017/2018. Has that happened and I missed it?

Also, we now have 162 pediatric deaths from influenza, that's 7 in the last week, 6 the week before that and 5 the week before that. Guess what, no one cares!

Your "celebration" is a bit premature.

No offense but... wrote:

fartlekpa wrote:

I got home tonight and after taking my daily sterilizing shower, washing my clothes, and wiping down everything I touched--just so I could hug and kiss my family I decided to unwind online and saw someone had bumped this thread, which I believe was the first to address the crisis (as "not serious"). I spent 5-10 minutes looking thru my posts from Jan/Feb and I can say I stand by every one. It really sucks we are where we are and I really wish people spent a little more time understanding how fragile our world really is.

Seriously dude, if you've got a wife and family you love and yet you are coming home and not just spending time but going back through old posts on this site at this particular time then something has gone wrong.

Don't be on your deathbed with your dying wish to your family being to log on here and demand facts matter be told he wrong! This place really isn't worth it.