Will Coronavirus cancel the 2020 Boston Marathon?

I'm going to make a bold prediction. 50% chance of cancellation. I hope not.

There's nothing bold about that, because it's not a prediction, just odds.

Grow some balls. Will it be canceled or not?

Boston is still... Let's put it this way... Unless people start dying in Boston from the coronavirus, only then the odds of canceling the marathon will even approach 50/50...

You are right. It's too early. Let's revisit on April 2nd.

KawauchiFTW wrote:

Boston no... It'll go on... But I'm worrying slightly about Tokyo, like only 2-5%... I'm counting on it to stay on, unless this corona... thing really gets out of hand in the next 2-3 weeks.

Be worried 100% for Tokyo now:

According to the Wikipedia stats page on the outbreak, of the 70,000 people diagnosed with the virus, only 11,000 have been deemed recovered thus far, making the severity of the disease hard to judge. If deaths continue at the current steadily increasing rate. they will reach 25,000 by 4/20. The growth of international cases outside China is dominated by the cruise ship cases. The total extrapolates to 3000-30,000 international cases (not deaths) by 4/20 with and without the cruise ship cases.

Keep in mind, wargaming such a scenario, one could simply be eating lunch at their favorite fast food place sometime in the near future when the military arrives and grabs everyone inside after an infected person was reported to have entered the establishment. Detainees would then be taken to a camp where if not infected already they will likely then become infected. Especially, being packed in with other sick and unruly people, anything could happen. A good example of this is how people have been quarantined on cruise ships where the virus just keeps spreading adding to the number of infections until nobody is left.

Snot Rocket wrote:

According to the Wikipedia stats page on the outbreak, of the 70,000 people diagnosed with the virus, only 11,000 have been deemed recovered thus far, making the severity of the disease hard to judge. If deaths continue at the current steadily increasing rate. they will reach 25,000 by 4/20. The growth of international cases outside China is dominated by the cruise ship cases. The total extrapolates to 3000-30,000 international cases (not deaths) by 4/20 with and without the cruise ship cases.

If it became a pandemia in Europe or in America, it would probably happen after the summer holiday season in fall. Summer time in general is not good for viruses and it doesn't have enough time to spread out before that.

The Boston Marathon "injects more than $200 million into Greater Boston Economy."

It will not be canceled.

https://www.baa.org/2019-boston-marathon-injects-more-200-million-greater-boston-economy

fisky wrote:

The Boston Marathon "injects more than $200 million into Greater Boston Economy."

It will not be canceled.

https://www.baa.org/2019-boston-marathon-injects-more-200-million-greater-boston-economy

It will not be cancelled. If in Asia, perhaps, but it is not.

New York was canceled due to weather in 2012. If it is bad enough, CDC will will make the call, as will the airlines.

markinkansascity wrote:

New York was canceled due to weather in 2012. If it is bad enough, CDC will will make the call, as will the airlines.

Actually New York was cancelled because a radio host (Mike Francesa) made it his life's mission to get the marathon cancelled. The weather was bright and sunny the day the marathon was supposed to be held. I ran 26.2 in Central Park along with thousands of other runners. It was great.

dodge ball wrote:

Flights cancelled wrote:

Both Southwest Airlines and Frontier Airlines have suspended all flights to Hong Kong, Shanghai, and Beijing. Flights to Pyongyang have not been cancelled but both airlines are monitoring the situation. I suspect they will cancel their Pyongyang flights shortly.

Since when does southwest fly to Asia? They only fly in North America.

[quote=bart simpson]I'm going to start smoking and give that up too![/quote]

Tokyo is cancelled. Boston is less likely because it’s here in the USA, but depending on the direction the virus goes, I can’t say I would be shocked if it did end up happening. Unlikely, but definitely possible.

Ivanka wrote:

There's nothing bold about that, because it's not a prediction, just odds.

Grow some balls. Will it be canceled or not?

Fine. IMO, the age groups will be canceled. The elite race won't be to continue the uncancelled streak. Look, they don't have this under control. At this rate, in April it'll be parabolic and not possible to say "just a bad flu season bro". This is my prediction.

Technically, it wouldn't be cancelled. It'll be like Tokyo. No 10am start, just 9:37am and 9:45am.

What do you think of the 2020 London marathon? Even more likely to be fully cancelled, IMO.

Ban crowds on the course and foreign runners and it should be okay.

Cancel the London Marathon and bring Kipchoge vs. Bekele to Boston... I can dream.

stravanonwonk wrote:

Ban crowds on the course...

No different than 2018...