2019 Girls NXN top 5 individual predictions

I bet you Molly Huddle could win this year’s NXN race.

The fact is, though, we are putting Walters in the conversation (and rightfully so) because she is a top contender, but Tuohy has outrun her all season. Manhattan Invite was a fairly close race compared to typical Tuohy races, but NXR was a 17 second win and Tuohy didn’t even look tired. If you watch the runnerspace video, Tuohy jogs into the finish line. Walters finishes and is gasping for air.

This isn’t meant to insult Walters. She is a fantastic runner, has significantly improved this year, and has been consistently good since she was a middle schooler (which often isn’t the case for girls). But these other girls seem to be on pace with Walters and people are trying to say they see Tuohy losing. I just don’t get how. Has Tuohy really had a “bad race” in her past 3 seasons of XC? Do we really think she is going to have that bad race in her last HS XC race ever? Stranger things have happened, but I don’t get how anyone is betting against her.

As someone else said, I think the purpose of this season was to peak late and I don’t think we’ve fully seen what she is capable of this season.

My predictions for All-Americans are:

1) Katelyn Tuohy

2) Marlee Starliper

3) Brooke Rauber

4) Taylor Ewert

5) Sydney Thorvaldson

6) Katelynne Hart

7) Claire Walters

8) Carlie Dorostkar

9) Tatum David

10) Charlotte Bednar

11) Sasha Neglia

12) Jenna Schulz

13) Fiona Max

14) Kate Peters

15) Riley Stewart

16) Alex Klos

17) Allie Janke

18) Corie Smith

19) Phoebe White

20) Mattie Geddes

21) Athena Young

I agree and I do not think Walters will try to run with Tuohy as she has a team race to consider - and she probably knows she can't stay with her - but she has been about as fast as the others so I did include her. Tuohy finished the NXR and looked like she had barely run - she certainly had a lot more that day if she needed it. I do think Starliper at a minimum will try to go with Tuohy (and do it for at least a good chunk of the race) as that is probably why she is in Portland. Why go there for 2nd? Thorvaldson I just think is a pretty competitive (and good) runner who will also try to stick with the leader. She was supposedly 5:03 for 1 mile at NXR NW though that might be a little faster than the Portland course (but I am not sure about that). She slowed quite a bit in that 3rd mile though.

Is there evidence that they are a lot faster? I mean times and speed ratings? Every year Tuohy goes up against opponents with low 160 ratings. The problem is Tuohy when she is close to on is going 170+. I tend to think Footlocker is conducive to slightly inflated SRs. But 163 is the ballpark of what Tuohy has been up against. The one common opponent is Baloga. Starliper beat her by 33 seconds all out in a dual with Masciarelli. Tuohy beat Baloga by 58 seconds at the Federation race where she was never challenged and wasn't pressing.

That said, that is why they run the race.

I don’t see it wrote:

Do we really think she is going to have that bad race in her last HS XC race ever? Stranger things have happened, but I don’t get how anyone is betting against her.

Replace "HS" with "NCAA" and people would have said the exact same thing about Jenny Simpson in 2009. We all saw how that turned out, so anything is possible...

That being said, I still think Tuohy will win but hope Starliper can make a race out of it.

I see a replay of the Efraimson of Baxter race from a few years ago. Tuohy is sliding and others are on the rise. I also think USADA should test at these high school championships. Having said this, it should probably be announced a year out.

My order of the finishers:

Thorvaldson

Tuohy

Ewert

Starliper

Walters

Sydney thorvaldson is a great Runner don't get me wrong

But nothing indicates that she will be able to stay with Tuohy

I'd be really surprised if starliper can but it's within reason that she might be able to stay somewhere close

Yeah I agree with your sentiment

The only one who has shown anything close to Tuohy is starliper

All the other girls have one or two races in the high 150s 160

So you're telling me Sydney thorvaldson has been holding back all year and only averaging a 155 speed rating if that

Zola Budd would have crushed the field if she were in the race and the same age.

No one seems to be considering Brynn Brown as a serious contender. She seems over her injury and still has the fastest 5000 m cross country time before her stress fracture--but seems to over that now--enough to win her Regional meet

astro wrote:

Is there evidence that they are a lot faster? I mean times and speed ratings? Every year Tuohy goes up against opponents with low 160 ratings. The problem is Tuohy when she is close to on is going 170+. I tend to think Footlocker is conducive to slightly inflated SRs. But 163 is the ballpark of what Tuohy has been up against. The one common opponent is Baloga. Starliper beat her by 33 seconds all out in a dual with Masciarelli. Tuohy beat Baloga by 58 seconds at the Federation race where she was never challenged and wasn't pressing.

That said, that is why they run the race.

yes, lots of times and speed ratings. 2 years ago Hart and Culbreath were 2 time regional winners, and came in with a lot of confidence. Hart is now running about 20-30 seconds faster - check out her State meet and Regional times. Her speed rating in 2017 were around 150 or 20 below Tuohy. Now they are around 160. Everything says they should be closer. Close enough to stay competitive the whole way is another question that will be answered on saturday.

astro wrote:

Is there evidence that they are a lot faster? I mean times and speed ratings?

The top competition is getting a little faster and there are a lot more of them. In 2017 it took 145 to make top 15. Last year it took 150. I expect it will take around 152 this year.

2017 NXN speed ratings

1 - 172 - Tuohy

2 - 159 - Chmiel

3 - 155 - Castillo

4 - 153 - Hart

5 - 149 - Walters

6 - 148 - Rauber

2018 NXN

1 - 167 - Tuohy

2 - 162 - Chmiel

3 - 158 - Ewert

4 - 157 - Covert

5 - 156 - Walters

6 - 154 - Rauber

.

That makes it appear that Tuohy may get beaten this year.

It doesn't really make it appear she will be beaten

Of course in any race there's always the chance that anything could happen

But certainly the speed reading don't give any indication that it is likely that she will be beaten

Katelyn Tuohy high speed rating this year is 170 she's averaging 166

Starliper 163 averaging about 155

Thorvaldsen 160 averaging about 1 50

Yes she may be beaten but it is not very likely

Brynn Brown is a really good runner

But her 1612 was only a 157 speed rating. Short course.

And unfortunately she got injured and only ran like a 144 at nxn South. So it would be amazing if all of a sudden she was able to run a high 160 speed rating