2019 Girls NXN top 5 individual predictions

Alright, I'm going with the New York girls taking top three

Tuohy

Walters

Rauber

Thorvaldson

Max

Nobody's coming close to Tuohy. She'll be up 10 seconds at the first mile 20 at the second and then just cruise from there

Also I don't think the girls doing Foot Locker are going to race as well because I think a lot of them are going to be gearing up to try to win Foot Locker

It would be cool if someone could stay with Tuohy just to make it interesting

But the only one who really has a chance to do it is starliper and being her first nxn and the fact she has Foot Locker... I dont know

Tuohy

Starliper

Walters

Thorvaldson

Hart

Rauber will get 6th again... damn consistent Runner!

Starlipers 5 seconds behind at the mile and ten at two MMiles

Another 17 second win....

I'd like to think that a couple of Runners try to stay with Tuohy just for the sport of it

But in reality she's going to go out at a pace that no one else can hang with.

So it's either try to have the race of your life and almost certainly end up way further back than you could have or play it safe and just try to have the best race you can

Tuohy by 30 sec

Starliper

Walters

Ewert

Hart

Rauber 6th like a charm!

Thorvaldson

Max

Smith

Neglia

Ping bounces back like champ!

Yeah it's crazy to think no one's even been within 17 seconds of Tuohy for the last 3 years

And that was once. I mean how many times have people been within 30 seconds of her? Maybe twice in the last 3 years. Crazy!

Yeah what has tuohys average margin a victory been in races with tough competition 30 40 seconds?

It'll be interesting to see though maybe someone will try to run with her maybe starliper maybe that girl from the Midwest David's?

Thorvaldsen?

That's why they have the races you never know!

#'s 1 & 2:

1) Tuohy

2) Starliper

#'s 3 - 5 (potential candidates):

Hart, Walters, Rauber, Thorvaldson, Ewert (in no particular order).

#'s 6 -12 (potential candidates):

Hutchins, Ping, Smith, Dorostkar, Schulz, Neglia, Stewart, Brown, Max, Peters, Janke....(in no particular order).

-------------------------------------

There's obviously some excess/spillover in the last two categories above.

What do you guys think TimeWise that Tuohy is going to win by?

I think the speed ratings are going to prove really accurate 21 seconds!

Starliper thorvaldson and Walter is battling it out for second and the podium spots

I think tuohy makes a statement. Last HS race for her.

Tuohy 30+ sec win

Starliper

Thorvaldson

Walter

Hart

Ewert

This list is already posted in the Footlocker thread but should help here to jog everyone's memory about who all is in the running for top 5 at NXN.

Here are the top girls ranked by their best speed rating

and where they are competing (N = NXN, F = FLN)

170 - N - - - Katelyn Tuohy

163 - N-F - Marlee Starliper

161 - N - - - Claire Walters

160 - N - - - Sydney Thorvaldson

160 - - - F - Zofia Dudek

160 - - - F - Abby Vanderkooi

159 - N-F - Katelynne Hart

158 - - - F - Sydney Masciarelli

158 - N-F - Taylor Ewert

157 - N - - - Brynn Brown

157 - N - - - Brooke Rauber

156 - N - - - Carlie Dorostkar

155 - N - - - Fiona Max

155 - - - F - Jenna Hutchins

155 - - - F - Ava Dobson

154 - N - - - Kate Peters

154 - N - - - Allie Janke

153 - N - - - Corie Smith

153 - - - F - Carly McNatt

153 - N-F - Tatum David

153 - - - F - Kate Wiser

152 - N - - - Sasha Neglia

152 - - - F - Karrie Baloga

152 - - - F - Bethany Graham

152 - N - - - Athena Young

152 - N - - - Jenna Schulz

152 - N-F - - Riley Stewart

152 - N - - - Alexandra Klos

I am awaiting this year's version of the "Tuohy will not win"!

https://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=9126557

Tuohy

Starliper

Rauber

Thorvaldson

Hart

Walters - team 1

Dorostkar

Ewert - team 2

Smith - team 3

David

If I was Starliper I would try to go out with Tuohy, she will be feeling confident after her FL regional win over Masciarelli and has nothing to lose. There's no point in racing if you go into it thinking that you're racing for second. Not sure how long/if she'll be able to stay with her but it's worth a try, she knows she has FL the following week where she has another shot at winning if things totally blow up for her.

It's going to be interesting to see Tuohy's pacing and strategy, and what she does if there are other girls near her. I have never seen a race where anyone was even close to her and although it's possible we won't see that until college there's a chance we see some girls with her for a little bit throughout this race. She always has the luxury of slowing down at the end because she's so far ahead and we've never seen her have to use any kind of closing speed so that could be exciting (though I think there's a good chance she's way ahead at the finish again).

I don't really know much about Thorvaldson but people on here seem to talk highly of her, those that are familiar with her what's her usual race like, does she tend to go out fast?

Tuohy, Starliper, Thorvaldson, Hart wrote:

I don't really know much about Thorvaldson but people on here seem to talk highly of her, those that are familiar with her what's her usual race like, does she tend to go out fast?

I will respectfully disagree with you about Starliper. You have a very valid point, but i think that strategy is wrong for her.

Kelsey Chmiel said in an interview that she learned early in HS that you cant try to run Tuohy’s race, you have to run your own. I am not saying they are conceding the victory at all. But going out and running at Tuohys pace early likely means she would burn out hard in the end. Much better to run her own race for the first half and then see if she feels she can push up. Thorvaldson likely goes out fairly quick (she has done this before) which is the best case for Starliper. Maybe Thorvaldson pushes KT to go faster than she should and she dies out at the end.

Thorvaldson has really impressed me this past year. She will be a beast going forward.

In the end, no one has been able to go at Katelyns pace at the beginning and hold through even half of the race. I dont think anyone has a chance of doing so. They have to not let her get too far ahead and hope they can catch her in the end.

Walters was only 7 sec behind Tuohy at 1 mile at NXR, and came around 17 sec behind at the end. But KT looked like she was running easy...so hard to say if thats foreshadowing for NXN.

Good post! Thanks for sharing the speed ratings!

Yeah it would be interesting to see the average speed ratings for each Runner

I know that Tuohy has put up a lot of 168 and 166s to go with her 170

I bet some of the other runners aren't as consistent with their best performances or with putting up high speed ratings

I doubt if you look at average that anyone is within 10 points of Tuohy. I give her a 27 second Win taking into account she might just Cruise the last mile

Yeah that definitely makes sense

Everyone says someone should just run with Tuohy but whoever tries is going to be in for a tough second half

Camil strategy really paid off for her... she did great the last two years running her race While others died.

I'm predicting Tuohy 1647

On tough course conditions. The rest of them battling it out for second at about 1707 Walter's starliper and Sydney thorvaldson

Tuohy, Starliper, Thorvaldson, Hart wrote:

It's going to be interesting to see Tuohy's pacing and strategy, and what she does if there are other girls near her.

She always has the luxury of slowing down at the end because she's so far ahead and we've never seen her have to use any kind of closing speed so that could be exciting (though I think there's a good chance she's way ahead at the finish again).

I'm a big Tuohy fan, but I'm not so sure she has much closing speed to use, which is why she needs to get so much of a lead before the last mile. I'm not convinced that if someone were alongside her with 200 to go that she would magically summon a great kick out of nowhere.

She usually goes out too fast, so I think the best strategy for others is to lay off the hot early pace but keep her close, try to claw into her lead the 2nd mile, and then hope she freaks out at having someone right behind her so close to the end. Tuohy's hope would be that others have used too much energy to catch/keep up with her and that they have nothing left at the end. Tuohy herself could get away with not having to kick in that scenario.

Looking forward to seeing how it ultimately plays out!!

Was more so just reading this thread without commenting, but this viewpoint makes sticking with or near Tuohy sound much easier than it is. The fact of the matter is she has consistently beaten some of the best runners in the country by 30+ seconds.

Walters (a favorite for the runner-up position at NXN along with Starliper and Thorvaldson) had a great regional race, but Tuohy still beat her by 20 seconds. Tuohy “only” had a 7 second lead at the 2.5K mark. I’m not sure someone has been that close to her in a XC race at the midway point in the past 3 years. What impressed me about Tuohy is she extended that to a 20 second lead by the end of the race (and it shows she had more in the tank).

I mean, runnerspace posted a video of the Regional finish and I was stunned that she crossed the finish line looking extremely relaxed. She was visibly not tired.

I’m not a Tuohy junkie or anything like that. I respect her abilities, though. She is in another class at this point. She did say in a YouTube interview with Emma Abrahamson from last year’s NXN that it was probably the dumbest race she ever ran. She knew she went out too fast. I can’t imagine her making that “mistake” again (and we are saying she made a mistake when she won by 10+ seconds and set a course record).

In my personal opinion, if anyone decides to stay with her (or can) for 2 miles, she will be smart enough to pull away with a mile to go. You’re right, she may not win a 200m sprint against some of the other top girls, but I can’t even see it getting there.

Pretty sure Tuohy has among the fastest 400 and 800 m x of any of the top runners

Probably the same for 200m though none of the top girls really run that distance

She cpocked the 58 400m in one of her relays. 209 at the 800. Starlipers probably right with her at those distances Hart is pretty close too

She doesn't go out fast because she knows she's slow at the end or anything it's just she's really fast....