So what the hell is supposed to happen at the men's marathon trials? 1 spot locked and 2 up for grabs? (Rupp not the lock)

FFF wrote:

Korir, Demoor, Walmsley.

Stinson will outkick Rupp for fourth, then make it to Tokyo after Seth can't decide what shoes to wear.

Dude....

Nice work, LOL

Post of the day!

£££££ wrote:

Jim Walsmey, Leonard Korir and Scott Fauble. In that exact order.

If Walmsley's 1:04 HM is an accurate indication of his ability, he would need to run close to the equivalent of an all-out effort to be with the leaders at the halfway point.

Korir may have trouble with the hills, but I recall Rupp had a bit of trouble keeping up at Boston. The hills will define the trials race.

Joey Whelan will take spot #3

You heard it here first people! Go Bills.

Let's Go Buffaloooooo wrote:

Joey Whelan will take spot #3

You heard it here first people! Go Bills.

He's my dark horse pick. It's an outside shot, for sure. But with the hills on the course and the way the favorites could all focus on each other and make mistakes, someone like Joey could storm to third place in the final miles.

veryveryoldman wrote:

I pick Lagat for the 3rd spot if he's with the leaders at 23 miles.

That's quite the qualifier. Analogous to saying "I pick Nick Willis if he's with the leaders at 4,400 meters."

veryveryoldman wrote:

I pick Lagat for the 3rd spot if he's with the leaders at 23 miles.

I'm glad someone said it. Don't sleep on the guy.

Rupp was on 2:09 pace when he pulled off. While that's great for a first race back, I wouldn't say that it makes him a lock - not when so many things can go wrong in a marathon and since he is supposed to have no coaching from big T.

And while Korir's 2:07 is mightily impressive given how he ran it, it's just one marathon. One that will be much different from Atlanta. Favored certainly, lock no. Khannouchi ran 2:07 the year before the trials in New York where he finished 4th in 2:12.

deuces wrote:

Rupp was on 2:09 pace when he pulled off. While that's great for a first race back, I wouldn't say that it makes him a lock - not when so many things can go wrong in a marathon and since he is supposed to have no coaching from big T.

And while Korir's 2:07 is mightily impressive given how he ran it, it's just one marathon. One that will be much different from Atlanta. Favored certainly, lock no. Khannouchi ran 2:07 the year before the trials in New York where he finished 4th in 2:12.

Context. Rupp was on 2:09 pace with 3 miles to go after going out in under 63 min for the half. Given how close to home he got I would think it highly probable he would have run 2:09(or faster) going out in mid 64. The 4 extra months between now and the trials will be hugely meaningful for him given the return from injury. Rupp is as close to a "lock" as any American male in recent history in the marathon. He will run smart and prepare well for the trials course.

irunfastXC wrote:

veryveryoldman wrote:

I pick Lagat for the 3rd spot if he's with the leaders at 23 miles.

I'm glad someone said it. Don't sleep on the guy.

No one would be shocked if he made the team. Very impressed? Yes.

Saying he'll make the team IF with the leaders 23 miles into at 26.2 mile race is such a soft bet.

irunfastXC wrote:

veryveryoldman wrote:

I pick Lagat for the 3rd spot if he's with the leaders at 23 miles.

I'm glad someone said it. Don't sleep on the guy.

Are you talking about this guy?

I am predicting Korir (is he declared?) Fauble and Ward. I’m going on a whim and saying the Atlanta course breaks Rupp.

Both Rupp and Ward make the team again. They have made the team before so I say that gives them a psychological edge.

Rupp's healthy is of concern but he will find a way. He needs redemption in a bad way so he'll find a way to make the team.

I think Ward is the smartest one for running NYC. NYC profile is probably the closest major marathon profile to the Atlanta course. And Ward does well there. He will benefit from that race and will have a tremendous base of fitness to get ready for the trials. He will make the team. He's a good runner that smarter than probably everyone else.

I think it comes down to Korir vs Fauble. Nike v Hoka. Korir wins. Nike wins.

Jared Ward should run in Nike for the Olympics.

FFF wrote:

Korir, Demoor, Walmsley.

Stinson will outkick Rupp for fourth, then make it to Tokyo after Seth can't decide what shoes to wear.

Who is demoor?

Lagot Milk wrote:

irunfastXC wrote:

I'm glad someone said it. Don't sleep on the guy.

No one would be shocked if he made the team.

I would

Ritz will toe the line saying he's in the best shape of his life, but will DNF at mile 14. Sad to say, 1/2 Marathon was always his been hammering distance.

C.S.Q. wrote:

Both Rupp and Ward make the team again. They have made the team before so I say that gives them a psychological edge.

Rupp's healthy is of concern but he will find a way. He needs redemption in a bad way so he'll find a way to make the team.

I think Ward is the smartest one for running NYC. NYC profile is probably the closest major marathon profile to the Atlanta course. And Ward does well there. He will benefit from that race and will have a tremendous base of fitness to get ready for the trials. He will make the team. He's a good runner that smarter than probably everyone else.

I think it comes down to Korir vs Fauble. Nike v Hoka. Korir wins. Nike wins.

Jared Ward should run in Nike for the Olympics.

I was thinking the same top 4 for the same reasons. Fauble has been injured so I would pick the other 3 as it stands today, but that could change.

Hardloper wrote:

Lagot Milk wrote:

No one would be shocked if he made the team.

I would

Why though? He's run 2:12 already and is an exceedingly talented runner. Suppose he takes one more small step in marathon fitness/training since the 2:12, the pace is slow at the trials, and he picks off someone in the final half mile for third place.

Kipchoge is probably the same age as Lagat and is crushing everyone. Crazier things have happened. Being shocked at such an outcome is for the layman.

Pert wrote:

Ritz will toe the line saying he's in the best shape of his life, but will DNF at mile 14.

Love this. So tired of Ritz's pre-race interviews where he talks a big game and never backs it up.