Is Jim Walmsley Running the Marathon Trials?

Mike D. wrote:

Eh. I certainly wouldn't trust your calculator: There's a much bigger list of runners who've run 1:04 halves than there are runners who've run 2:13:xx fulls...

AP5000 wrote:

I tried 3 calculaters on 1:04 with 130mpw. 1 said 2:12:xx and two said lowish 2:13. Elites on high mpw slow down far less between 13.1 and 26.2 that amateurs, but most calculators don't factor that in. My guess is he will be in far better than 1:04 shape (he did that off like 6 or 7 workouts) if he goes to trials and therefore will run somewhere in the low 2:12 range even with hills, which is his strength.

Part of the problem is that the half marathon is a very different distance than the marathon. Plenty of faster guys can crush a half but don't have the economy and engine to run an excellent marathon. I think it's reasonable to expect given Jim's ultra background that he has the engine and the economy for the marathon well beyond that of most competitors.

If we pencil in Jared and Scott and Galen is not fit then I would absolutely put Jim in the category of ~20 guys who are in that "next tier" and can possibly make the team.

CocoElite wrote:

The fact is 26.2 is barely a long run for Jimbo. He will put those road sissies to shame and then will go crush some vert in the canyons the day after.

He might crush them in the GC the day after he was crushed at the Atlanta Marathon trials. You are right about that.

Marathon racing is about speed not about your longest training run with a lot of vert.

You are missing the point. He will not get "crushed" by any American runner. He may be around 4 minutes behind Rupp on that course. I am guessing it's a high 2:97 to low 2:08 course for Rupp and 2:12ish for Walmsley. Any other guy than Rupp and the spread is less. If, however, they raced the 21 mile R2R, Walmsley would beat Rupp or anyone else by a significant margin. Something like 30 minutes faster but for only 21 miles.

Walmsley is not running a 2:12ish in Atlanta or anywhere else anytime soon.

Why not? Please provide an objective data point. What specific data are you using to suggest he cannot?

Cool, Walmsley is the best Grand Canyon runner. A great achievement, no doubt.

Let me know when he runs well in a competitive race though. He's amazing at solo time trialing Western States, but I doubt his abilities in actual race tactics. That just might be required in the trials marathon.

There's a great opportunity to prove me wrong this weekend with the U.S mountain running championships, but I doubt Walmsley would beat Joe Grey or even show up to a competitive race like that.

AP5000 wrote:

I tried 3 calculaters on 1:04 with 130mpw. 1 said 2:12:xx and two said lowish 2:13. Elites on high mpw slow down far less between 13.1 and 26.2 that amateurs, but most calculators don't factor that in. My guess is he will be in far better than 1:04 shape (he did that off like 6 or 7 workouts) if he goes to trials and therefore will run somewhere in the low 2:12 range even with hills, which is his strength.

Please reference the calculators you are using. In 2015 and 2016, 40 Americans and 32 Americans broke 64:00 in the half and 2 and 4 broke 2:12 in the full marathon in each respective year and only one broke 2:12 in the trials in LA (heck, only 3 broke 2:14). 2:12 from 64:00 is a pretty big jump, especially on the course in Atlanta. Not saying it isn't possible. Just saying it isn't likely.

If only someone like Walmsley would join Eliud Kipchoge's training camp for a year .....what could happen? If I was a professional this is what I would be pursuing, learn the training and mindset. Come on...Jim (or Sage)...get er done.

Another data point worth mentioning is the 1996 Olympic marathon in Atlanta, the fastest American was 2:18, the overall winner was 2:12:36 and likely most of the athletes were doped. Take a look at Publix Atlanta marathon times over the years. The fastest since 2007 was 2:18:50. It was run by a Russian whose best is a 2:13:58 marathon. If you look more recent, there was a guy named Oscar Ogwaro who ran 2:28:19 in Atlanta. He is worth mentioning because his PRs are almost the same as Walmsley (3:48 1500, 8:42 steeple, 29:15 10K, 64:52 half). So, 2:18-2:20 is probably more optimistic for Jim in Atlanta, and his capability right now is probably closer to 2:14 on a flat course based upon the performances of others. 2:12 reeks of fan boy mentality.

marathon trials lol...dude got beat by 6 minutes at Sierre Zinal

1. Jornet Kilian, 1987, Espagne 2:25.35,5 (1)

2. Mamu Petro, 1984, Érythrée 2:26.31,7 (163)

3. Walmsley Jim, 1990, Etats-Unis 2:31.52,8 (94)

GlobalSports wrote:

If only someone like Walmsley would join Eliud Kipchoge's training camp for a year .....what could happen? If I was a professional this is what I would be pursuing, learn the training and mindset. Come on...Jim (or Sage)...get er done.

Jim's ego would be crushed after a week. Getting easily beaten every day by nameless Kenian sheepherders. He would not last two weeks is my guess.

Yep

@joedirt, thanks for the data. That's exactly what I was trying to find for my post but couldn't. AP5000, Jim also trained for many years to build his aerobic engine to hit 1:04 -- it could well be that he gravitated to ultra distances because he already hit up against his speed "limits" and so more workouts won't get him much faster. Or it could be the opposite. Just because he runs a lot of miles doesn't really tell you that much. You'd also claim that (healthy) Galen Rupp couldn't beat walmsley in a 50 mile race (though I think he would) due to Jim's aerobic engine and strength and yet Galen has a fairly small spread between his half-marathon and full-marathon times. As does Kipchoge. If you look at the runners who do have a smaller slowdown between half and full, I don't think you'd say their training looks like Walmsley's training. But I like Walmsley and I think it's great if he does the trials. I even think he's capable of taking a spot on the team... but in Atlanta, as joedirt wrote, 2:12 would be a heroic effort even for a healthy Galen.

joedirt wrote:

AP5000 wrote:

I tried 3 calculaters on 1:04 with 130mpw. 1 said 2:12:xx and two said lowish 2:13. Elites on high mpw slow down far less between 13.1 and 26.2 that amateurs, but most calculators don't factor that in. My guess is he will be in far better than 1:04 shape (he did that off like 6 or 7 workouts) if he goes to trials and therefore will run somewhere in the low 2:12 range even with hills, which is his strength.

Please reference the calculators you are using. In 2015 and 2016, 40 Americans and 32 Americans broke 64:00 in the half and 2 and 4 broke 2:12 in the full marathon in each respective year and only one broke 2:12 in the trials in LA (heck, only 3 broke 2:14). 2:12 from 64:00 is a pretty big jump, especially on the course in Atlanta. Not saying it isn't possible. Just saying it isn't likely.

ThatAverageRunner wrote: I know after his 50k road best for the Carbon X shoe he said he wasn’t sure, but he’s been tossing in some workouts recently around 5 flat pace. Like today he did 5xmile from 5:10-4:50 roughly. Obviously not an impressive workout but elevation gain was only 100 feet, so it’s clear he trying to get some ‘speed’ back in his legs.

I’m not a walmsley fanboy but I would love to see him run trials as kind of a dark horse/wild card character.

50 mile; not 50 km.

At no point did he say he wasn't sure. Yes, the Trials look they will be part of a longer road buildup towards Comrades.

If you're at all interested in running, ultras or otherewise, Spartathlon (153 miles in Greece) or world champs are both a little more current at the moment though. There is a lot happening (with Walmsley too, as noted with world long distance mountain running chaps) between now and the Trials.

Without walk stops or aid stations with skittles he won't succeed. Can't power walk this one.

Facts are worthless wrote:

Without walk stops or aid stations with skittles he won't succeed. Can't power walk this one.

Is this the new "Run, Forest, run!"?

EJD wrote:

Yes, I think so. Before then, he is on the team for the World Long Distance Mountain Running Championships in November.

https://trailrunner.com/trail-news/usatf-squad-announced-for-the-wmra-long-distance-mountain-running-championships/

Ok cool wrote:

There's a great opportunity to prove me wrong this weekend with the U.S mountain running championships, but I doubt Walmsley would beat Joe Grey or even show up to a competitive race like that.

OTOH you could simply read what has already been posted on this very thread - Jim (and Joe) have already been selected for the WMRA Long Distance (42km) team, and this weekend's race is only for selection of the "Classic" Distance (14km) team. For the first time both of these World Championship races are going to be held at the same location (Argentina) on the same weekend in mid-November. Further review reveals that while Joe is entered this weekend, Jim is not. While it's anyone's guess whether Joe will actually double at World's, it appears Jim is understandably only interested in the 42km. Regardless, Jim competing in a sanctioned WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP isn't exactly dodging competition in my book.

Back to the subject at hand - how well might he do at the OTM? Certainly any course with hills and heat should be to his competitive advantage, but high humidity could be challenging if he doesn't prepare for it.

pathfinder wrote:

Facts are worthless wrote:

Without walk stops or aid stations with skittles he won't succeed. Can't power walk this one.

Is this the new "Run, Forest, run!"?

Same but different. Run, Forest, run! is used to irritate all runners in person while my "power walk" is more just used to irritate Ultra "runners" on here.

Facts are worthless wrote:

pathfinder wrote:

Is this the new "Run, Forest, run!"?

Same but different. Run, Forest, run! is used to irritate all runners in person while my "power walk" is more just used to irritate Ultra "runners" on here.

Actually, it's just used by people that don't understand.