Zurich 5000m DL pace: 1k 2:35, 2k 5:11, 3k 7:47k

Barega this year is a perfect pacer.

zxcvzvcx wrote:

The pace is too slow. Kejelcha could go low 12:40s but why not a mid to high 7:30s pace here? 7:36 pace is just 12:40 and these guys proved last year that they could take a slower pace and push (with Kejelcha) to a low to mid 12:40s.

Why not give them a chance at the record by going with a faster pacer than Tiernan? It just makes no sense. Are they supposed to go out in 7:47 and close the last 2k in under 5:00? The leader would have to close in 4:56 just to make Barega's time from last year. Why gather all these athletes and then prevent them from running a super fast time?

This is likely to be the fastest 5000m of the year. What a shame that Jakob and Filip aren't in it. Jakob would surely go well under 13 here fresh.

Last year they came through in 7:44 and Barega closed in under 5:00. That was after a sub-60 opening lap and a slow second 1k, so it's possible at least a couple guys will break 12:50, even off of a 7:47. I don't think Kejelcha will sacrifice himself again though, so unless Barega is willing to take it on after 3k, they will probably run something in the neighborhood of 12:55.

The women's steeple could be interesting. Either Chepkoech breaks her own world record or she completely bonk and finish in 9:23

Zur-itch wrote:

Alll wrote:

Who will be the fastest one from:

Andrew Butchart, Henrik Ingebritsen, Stewart McSweyn, Ben True, Julien Wanders?

Great question. Given his fast 1500's as of late, I'd say mcsweyn will be a bit closer to the finish than butchart; but not by much. Wanders is at best a 13:10 man this season. Henrik and True ~ 13:12-13:15.

True and McSweyn. Wanders will be last.

Zur-itch wrote:

I'm saying 3:

Kejelcha

Barega

Bekele

Jakob at 13:01

Well Jakob isn't running. Unless Kejelcha pushes the pace, the race will be slower than scheduled and the last 1km will be run in 2:21.

Subway Surfers wrote:

Zur-itch wrote:

Great question. Given his fast 1500's as of late, I'd say mcsweyn will be a bit closer to the finish than butchart; but not by much. Wanders is at best a 13:10 man this season. Henrik and True ~ 13:12-13:15.

True and McSweyn. Wanders will be last.

We'll see. Julien is reading this and he's thinking how to prove Subway Surfers wrong. Wait for tomorrow?

I would like to see Tiernan get pushed a little so that the field arrives at 3000m ahead of of schedule.

bpbungis wrote:

The women's steeple could be interesting. Either Chepkoech breaks her own world record or she completely bonk and finish in 9:23

I don't expect either outcome. So far she did not run like WR shape and don't forget that she has never before or after run within 10 secs of that mark. I expect a fast first k but more moderate second half and 8:50-55 for Chepkoech. Chepkoech can take the fast tempo as seen in Stanford, most of the others cannot but they will go with a too fast pace anyway, so some of them will finish much more slowly. More interesting is how the best of the rest like Coburn or Kiyeng (who seems among the smarter African runners and who doesn't always go with suicidal pace) will handle it and maybe got sub 9.

She probably wants to peak in Doha, so I'd say no WR today

I agree it is a bit slow for the Ethiopians and Cheptegei. It seems they are trying a one size fits all strategy: the pace is ideal for the ones hoping fr their first sub-13, and they hope the big guys will be so strong that they will make the 4th km very fast to reach top-12:50.

Minus: In doing so, they make sub 12:40 impossible if everybody stays behind the pacers and the pacers run 7:47 for the first 3km. I can even imagine a race without sub 13 because: "why do the 4th km fast if you cannot PR and you may lose 50.000$ by making your move too early?"

Plus: It is closer to what we may see at Worlds (even if pace at Worlds will be more erratic).

Remember Berlin marathon 2018 or a few London marathons with several groups of pacers? It is not easy to do on a track but there could be pacers going to in 7:40 and others in 7:48. This is not a concept for a Diamond League final though, and since the 5000m won't be in the Diamond anymore, it may never happen.

Alll wrote:

Subway Surfers wrote:

True and McSweyn. Wanders will be last.

We'll see. Julien is reading this and he's thinking how to prove Subway Surfers wrong. Wait for tomorrow?

Julien needs to think harder. And train and run harder, too.

Bad race for him. 20 seconds slower than SB

Alll wrote:

Bad race for him. 20 seconds slower than SB

Actually, it was 30+ seconds slower than his SB.

I think that is what they were thinking: if the pace disallows a low 12:40s, then why bother? Let it lag and then push the last k.

Subway Surfers wrote:

Zur-itch wrote:

Great question. Given his fast 1500's as of late, I'd say mcsweyn will be a bit closer to the finish than butchart; but not by much. Wanders is at best a 13:10 man this season. Henrik and True ~ 13:12-13:15.

True and McSweyn. Wanders will be last.

Subway the Oracle strikes again, got the tailend white guy rankings just right

9 TRUE Ben USA 29 DEC 1985 2 13:18.27

10 BALEW Birhanu BRN 27 FEB 1996 10 13:21.13

11 BUTCHART Andrew GBR 14 OCT 1991 3 13:24.46

12 INGEBRIGTSEN Henrik NOR 24 FEB 1991 7 13:30.78

13 McSWEYN Stewart AUS 1 JUN 1995 1 13:32.33

14 WANDERS Julien SUI 18 MAR 1996 5 13:45.18