Predict my NYC Marathon time

3.39

What are you basing your tempo pace off of for those long runs?

What are you running those 800s in?

Based on the info you've provided, if you run NYC properly and don't go too hard too soon in Manhattan before Central Park, it seems like you might be dialed up for a nice PR. Probably 3:10ish or faster if you keep training well and taper properly.

Hot Buns wrote:

What are you basing your tempo pace off of for those long runs?

What are you running those 800s in?

Based on the info you've provided, if you run NYC properly and don't go too hard too soon in Manhattan before Central Park, it seems like you might be dialed up for a nice PR. Probably 3:10ish or faster if you keep training well and taper properly.

Feel, mainly. It "feels" sustainable.

I've done an 800 recently as fast as 2:36, but usually it's in the 2:45-3:00 min range.

Yeah, I'm thinking 3:10 optimistically depending on how these next 10 weeks go.

I've bonked pretty hard in past marathons so I'm focused on just lots of easy mileage under 80% max heart rate, which is around 190 for me, hoping that adds to my stamina.

Prediction is 3:30, I hope you nail it.

theRanMan wrote:

Prediction is 3:30, I hope you nail it.

Thanks man.

I'm aiming 3:20, +/- 10 minutes. I still have 9 more weeks until the race so I feel like there's still time to make gains.

Running the Staten Island Half 3 weeks before, in theory that will be my best diagnostic. But I still want a target # to train against.

Just Average wrote:

Yeah, I'm thinking 3:10 optimistically depending on how these next 10 weeks go.

Based on my experience, sub-3:10 should definitely be doable, especially with the mileage you've been running (unless the logistics of NYC really cost you a chunk of time).

Off an identical 5K time, and much less mileage (averaged maybe 40, peaked at 60), I ran 3:07 in my last marathon. That included a very easy first mile, and a minor bonk over the last three miles.

My training, except for the lower total mileage, was very similar to yours. Long runs were done very easy. No MP work.

Workouts were typically 800m or mile repeats at 5K pace, cruise intervals and tempo runs. Usually one workout per week. I lost a few weeks to injuries.

For reference, my actual mile splits (mildly rolling course, no monster hills):

7:32, 7:03, 7:05, 7:05, 7:06

7:05, 6:53, 6:58, 7:00, 7:12,

7:13, 7:07, 7:09, 7:09, 7:09,

7:05, 7:05, 7:05, 7:05, 7:03,

7:02, 7:04, 7:02, 7:33, 7:33,

7:40, 1:28 -- 3:07:23

(Oct 2017, age 58, 5'11, 160 lbs)

Good luck!

Allen1959 wrote:

Just Average wrote:

Yeah, I'm thinking 3:10 optimistically depending on how these next 10 weeks go.

Based on my experience, sub-3:10 should definitely be doable, especially with the mileage you've been running (unless the logistics of NYC really cost you a chunk of time).

Off an identical 5K time, and much less mileage (averaged maybe 40, peaked at 60), I ran 3:07 in my last marathon. That included a very easy first mile, and a minor bonk over the last three miles.

My training, except for the lower total mileage, was very similar to yours. Long runs were done very easy. No MP work.

Workouts were typically 800m or mile repeats at 5K pace, cruise intervals and tempo runs. Usually one workout per week. I lost a few weeks to injuries.

For reference, my actual mile splits (mildly rolling course, no monster hills):

7:32, 7:03, 7:05, 7:05, 7:06

7:05, 6:53, 6:58, 7:00, 7:12,

7:13, 7:07, 7:09, 7:09, 7:09,

7:05, 7:05, 7:05, 7:05, 7:03,

7:02, 7:04, 7:02, 7:33, 7:33,

7:40, 1:28 -- 3:07:23

(Oct 2017, age 58, 5'11, 160 lbs)

Good luck!

Thanks this is super useful. I'm thinking of prioritizing the 800m workouts over the other ones. I've been seeing my 5K times drop a lot with them, if I can run an 18:30 or less before the race I feel like 7:15 pace will seem a lot easier.

Appreciate the help.

I did my 20 with some at MP and progression, but this week's 20 will be easy Allen. Glad to see people go low-3 on EZ mileage and tempos without dying on too much speedwork.

Just Average wrote:

I'm thinking of prioritizing the 800m workouts over the other ones. I've been seeing my 5K times drop a lot with them, if I can run an 18:30 or less before the race I feel like 7:15 pace will seem a lot easier.

Actually, I misread your first post -- your long runs are faster than I could manage. My easy days were very slow like yours.

There's no doubt a faster 5K time will help, but for a 3:05-3:10 marathon, you already have plenty of speed. By comparison, my 800 repeats were just under 3:00. Equal time jog recoveries. My 5K was 18:58.

I think more important for you would be LT repeats at 6:25-6:30/mile. Like 3 x 2-mile with 2-min recoveries. And threshold runs -- 4 or 5 miles at 6:30-pace. I generally alternated the 5K-pace and LT workouts week-to-week.

Nine weeks before the marathon, my 15K race pace was 6:26/mile. Is that about where you are now? I lost some training time after that because of knee injuries. Otherwise, I think 3:05 would have happened, and I think that's definitely a possibility for you.

Stay healthy, and best wishes!

I think you're selling yourself a little short. The Daniels prediction shows you what is possible. You still have 10 weeks to go. Since you've been doing interval type stuff I would do 1 weekly workout of longer reps with more volume. Instead of 6 x 800 @ 5k pace, do 6 x 1 mile @ 10k/threshold, 5 x 2km, 3 x 2 miles, etc. Build up to even a little more volume. Then hit your long run a little harder/more specific- 20 w./ 5 @ 7:00-7:15ish. 10 easy, 10 @ 7:00-7:15ish. 2 easy, then 5 x 2 @ 7:00-7:15, 2 easy. NYC is an honest course, I would do a workout on Tuesday/Wednesday, do a medium long run 10-14 miles the day after, do some strides/hills on Friday or Saturday then a good long run Sunday. With 60-70 miles a week, anywhere from 4-8 miles on the easy days depending on needs.

There's no reason you can't target/train for 3:10. NYC can be a tough course and you need to see what the weather Gods deal you but I think 3:20-3:30 is very doable. You can crush that time if you want to.

Haven't done a 15K at that pace but I feel like I could do it at 6:30s,

Cool, I will alter my track workouts to try LT repeats, 3x3200m at 6:30 pace w/2 min rest, then alter for a 4-5 mile at 6:30 pace. I feel like I get more out of the track workouts at this point then I am from just banging out 10 miles at an easy pace.

Yeah, yesterday I did 10 miles at 7:22 pace, I was thinking I should be focusing more on those types of workouts.

Great advice on workouts. Thanks, will try mixing it up.

NERunner053 wrote:

Instead of 6 x 800 @ 5k pace, do 6 x 1 mile @ 10k/threshold, 5 x 2km, 3 x 2 miles, etc.

Ah! You and I were thinking alike. Regarding the Daniels calculator, I agree that the comparative paces can give OP a pretty accurate idea of his potential in the longer races.

That's particularly true with the kind of mileage he's been logging. For me, at 40-45 mpw, there's always been a drop-off in marathon performance relative to 5K and 1OK, and even to 15K and HM.

I've never run NYC, so I don't how the logistics and the course normally affect the competitors.

Hi !

You were running so many miles only for 3:20-3:30, really ?

100 miles, you probably ran 9 min per mile or something, it's 900 mins or 15 hours per week of running !

Mostly you ran 70-80, that's 10,5 - 12 hours. Even if you ran a little bit faster...

If you can run 17-20 miles at 7:35 just solo during training, so I'm sure you could run at least 3:05-3:10.

You have done so much work !!!

Aim for 1:30-1:35 for a first half and try to finish in sub 3:10.

Believe in yourself ! Good luck !

PS: In my opinion much better to run firstly decent several 10 k's in 37-38 mins (in future),

after 5-7 half-marathons and when you get sub 1:20-1:25 you are able to try a marathon.

Prefontaine1991 wrote:

Hi !

You were running so many miles only for 3:20-3:30, really ?

100 miles, you probably ran 9 min per mile or something, it's 900 mins or 15 hours per week of running !

Mostly you ran 70-80, that's 10,5 - 12 hours. Even if you ran a little bit faster...

If you can run 17-20 miles at 7:35 just solo during training, so I'm sure you could run at least 3:05-3:10.

You have done so much work !!!

Aim for 1:30-1:35 for a first half and try to finish in sub 3:10.

Believe in yourself ! Good luck !

PS: In my opinion much better to run firstly decent several 10 k's in 37-38 mins (in future),

after 5-7 half-marathons and when you get sub 1:20-1:25 you are able to try a marathon.

Ha, yeah, the 100 mile week was 15 hours, 46 minutes -- but I was on vacation, I can't do that and work full-time.

I've bonked pretty hard in some past marathons (this will be my 10th, and 5th time running NY) so I was hoping a lot of the slow easy miles would build up my stamina.

I'm running the Staten Island Half 3 weeks out from NYC so I will use that to set my attempted pace.

3:10 would be 7:15s...I'm not sure I have that in me. If I were to run it tomorrow I think it'd be 7:45s-ish, but I still have some time to improve.

Thanks. I think I overperform in the short races...I have a flat 5K coming up where I expect to run in the 18:40s or better. But for me it doesn't translate into the longer distances, just a fast-twitch guy I guess. Or I'm not developing the slow-twitch enough? Idk.

This is "The system".

Day after day, week after week, year after year.

Your mileage should be consistent, not like that: 0-10-0-25-40-15-80-50-35-100 and so on.

Body needs some time to adapt, so would be nice to do a schedule with mileage, some workouts, short strides (maybe hills),

also some kind of physical exercises/plyometrics and so on.

Write down all races you wanna run and let's see what can you do.

In my opinion, there is no need to run 10 h + very slowly at your current level of fitness, better to run 7-8 hours and LR

should depend on distance.

Prefontaine1991 wrote:

This is "The system".

Day after day, week after week, year after year.

Your mileage should be consistent, not like that: 0-10-0-25-40-15-80-50-35-100 and so on.

Body needs some time to adapt, so would be nice to do a schedule with mileage, some workouts, short strides (maybe hills),

also some kind of physical exercises/plyometrics and so on.

Write down all races you wanna run and let's see what can you do.

In my opinion, there is no need to run 10 h + very slowly at your current level of fitness, better to run 7-8 hours and LR

should depend on distance.

Weeks 1-12 I was just building up, but from Week 13-onward I have consistently attempted to run 70 miles.

But of the 15 weeks since then I have hit 70 for 12 of them, (and 1 of the 3 was the same hours but included lots of mountain trail running, so really 2/15 were under 70) so that's almost 4 months of consistent high volume training (in my book).

I've been running a race about every 2 weeks and my times have consistently dropped, from a 7:38 min/mile average for a 4-miler in February (when I was out of shape and injured) to a 6:07 min/mile pace a week ago in a 5K, so I feel like the training is working.

But the marathon is a different beast, and I feel like I bonk hard despite at least a half dozen 17-20 milers done at MP.

Have you read any books on marathon nutrition? You may want to look into your nutrition plan if you're bonking hard.

There's a book by Matt Fitzgerald called Rules of Marathon and Half-Marathon Nutrition (used copies are cheap on Amazon) that might be able to provide some helpful info. There are several other books geared towards distance running nutrition as well.

One of my issues initially was not properly fueling before and during longer races. Getting the proper nutrition in the days before the race, and during the race, really improved my race times. I still bonk from time to time, but not nearly as frequently or as hard if I get the proper nutrition.

Hot Buns wrote:

Have you read any books on marathon nutrition? You may want to look into your nutrition plan if you're bonking hard.

There's a book by Matt Fitzgerald called Rules of Marathon and Half-Marathon Nutrition (used copies are cheap on Amazon) that might be able to provide some helpful info. There are several other books geared towards distance running nutrition as well.

One of my issues initially was not properly fueling before and during longer races. Getting the proper nutrition in the days before the race, and during the race, really improved my race times. I still bonk from time to time, but not nearly as frequently or as hard if I get the proper nutrition.

Thanks, I just ordered a cheap used copy for a few bucks.

I do "Bloks" during the marathon every 5 miles b/c I find them the least disgusting but still hasn't helped with a hard crash north of 20.

I was reading Ryan Hall recommended having a like 3 bagels throughout the 2 days before the race instead of 1 or 2 massive pasta meals, was thinking of trying that.

Thanks for the rec. I hope nutrition is the answer, because I have the physical ability to run the speeds I want to for at least 2.5 hours but after that I start to crash. Hopefully improved nutrition is the answer.