Do the math wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Case in point: the down goes the DOW thread. Pessimism leads to missed opportunities
S&P 500 return last 20 years 3.9%. No.
This post actually supports a ‘yes’ answer. Given historical returns in the 10% range, the law of averages tells us that the next 20 years will be average in the double digit range.
Not saying you’re wrong about historical or future returns, but if you believe in efficient markets neither should make a difference for future returns (excepting situations like capital crunches), so “law of averages” shouldn’t apply.