The S&P 500 will average a 6% or greater rate of return ofer the next 15 years - true or false?

Probably false. 2020s will be rough

True but there will be a few rough years in there which will scare most people away...always are

Case in point: the down goes the DOW thread. Pessimism leads to missed opportunities

?upperdecker wrote:

Case in point: the down goes the DOW thread. Pessimism leads to missed opportunities

S&P 500 return last 20 years 3.9%. No.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

?upperdecker wrote:

Case in point: the down goes the DOW thread. Pessimism leads to missed opportunities

S&P 500 return last 20 years 3.9%. No.

Not entirely sure what your point is, but in any case it's tremendously undermined by the dual facts that:

1. Your number's way off.

2. Even if it wasn't, it'd still be massively misleading, by purposely cherry-picking a period that starts precisely at the point of the most ridiculous broad-market overvaluation in the last 90 years.

sp2 wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

S&P 500 return last 20 years 3.9%. No.

Not entirely sure what your point is, but in any case it's tremendously undermined by the dual facts that:

1. Your number's way off.

2. Even if it wasn't, it'd still be massively misleading, by purposely cherry-picking a period that starts precisely at the point of the most ridiculous broad-market overvaluation in the last 90 years.

20 years from today we could be referring to 2019 market as being overvalued as well

sp2 wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

S&P 500 return last 20 years 3.9%. No.

Not entirely sure what your point is, but in any case it's tremendously undermined by the dual facts that:

1. Your number's way off.

2. Even if it wasn't, it'd still be massively misleading, by purposely cherry-picking a period that starts precisely at the point of the most ridiculous broad-market overvaluation in the last 90 years.

Igy always picks 2000 as his starting pt. because the next three years were terrible ones. It is ridiculous how he picks that one date but he does so continually. The market has returned 400% since 2009 but you will never see him talk about that. His favorite mutual fund of all time has had 9 losing years in the last 10 but he still touts it as the best ever.

Yeah, the reason for the post was that we’ve historically averaged what - like 7% if you look at over a long enough period?

But we are in the midst (at the tail end?) of the longest bull market in history, and it makes wondering about the medium term kind of interesting.

Prognosticator wrote:

Yeah, the reason for the post was that we’ve historically averaged what - like 7% if you look at over a long enough period?

But we are in the midst (at the tail end?) of the longest bull market in history, and it makes wondering about the medium term kind of interesting.

No, we have averaged much better than that - over the last 110 years the Dow has averaged 11% (with dividends reinvested). To see how great of an investment it is versus CDs, we will look at the real rates of return (meaning inflation-adjusted)).

The real rates of return are considerably lower since they take into account rates of inflation. If you look at the last 30 years, CDs have real rates of return of 1% versus over 7% for the S&P.

Sally Vix wrote:

sp2 wrote:

Not entirely sure what your point is, but in any case it's tremendously undermined by the dual facts that:

1. Your number's way off.

2. Even if it wasn't, it'd still be massively misleading, by purposely cherry-picking a period that starts precisely at the point of the most ridiculous broad-market overvaluation in the last 90 years.

Igy always picks 2000 as his starting pt. because the next three years were terrible ones. It is ridiculous how he picks that one date but he does so continually. The market has returned 400% since 2009 but you will never see him talk about that. His favorite mutual fund of all time has had 9 losing years in the last 10 but he still touts it as the best ever.

Sally on the other hand prefers to use 130 years of market history. For one, none of you will live that long, unless you are a vampire. Second, this country is very different today, GDP at 2% growth, versus the greater than 4% in the post WWII period. You would be wise to model the last 20 years than the historical equity returns of a much longer period. You’ll learn the hard way that what I say is correct if you follow Sally’s advice.

reinvest those dividends. Sounds minor, but it makes a world of difference.

Do you get penalized for investing in China, cause that's where it's at as far as countries getting rich. Catching up with the US, already more than half as wealthy, will pass us eventually.

Can you say "emerging markets"?

Igy - I already provided the returns of each decade for the last 120 years. Each decade has done remarkably except for the 2000 to 2009.

I invested in 2009 and pulled out yesterday. I was able to retire at 45. The market has been good to me.

We have had threads about net worth. Have to wonder again how Americans can save so little while returns are so high. Tge last 15 years of putting a decent amount in a 401k gets you $750K. The last 30 years gets you well over $1M.

Bad Wigins wrote:

Do you get penalized for investing in China, cause that's where it's at as far as countries getting rich. Catching up with the US, already more than half as wealthy, will pass us eventually.

China is hemorrhaging cash and their upper class is actually shrinking due to wealth lost from various investments. Their economy probably contracted in 2018

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

?upperdecker wrote:

Case in point: the down goes the DOW thread. Pessimism leads to missed opportunities

S&P 500 return last 20 years 3.9%. No.

This post actually supports a ‘yes’ answer. Given historical returns in the 10% range, the law of averages tells us that the next 20 years will be average in the double digit range.

Bad Wigins wrote:

Do you get penalized for investing in China, cause that's where it's at as far as countries getting rich. Catching up with the US, already more than half as wealthy, will pass us eventually.

You follow that train, buddy. See where it goes.

I just hope you time it right. lol