milermb wrote:
Wouldn't rule out a medal for Farah in 2020. He will probably never run 2:03/2 but the Olympic gold will be won in a time much slower than this.
Despite a very early start time it will be hot and humid, there won't be any pacemakers so expect a slow first half; then the race gets into the area where Farah is at his best - the half marathon and below.
It is accurate to say that the Tokyo Olympic marathon will be won in a time slower than 2:07 or 2:08. This certainly does increase Farah's chances. But the theory that Farah will win gold based on his track speed is flawed. Farah's speed is only (nearly) unbeatable in the final 100m. If you watch all his 5k/10k races, it's only the final 100m that he sprints ahead.
In Tokyo, it's not like the race is going to start in 2:08 pace and finish in 2:08 pace (if it were, then I'd give him a good chance of basically drafting for 42,095meters, and then kicking for 100m.)
In reality, it's going to start in 2:10 or 2:12 pace, and stay that way for the first half (coming through the half in around 1:05 or 1:06. Then it'll slowly wind up. The winner will be the one that can cover the final 2 or 3 km in sub 2hr marathon pace. This still favors Kipchoge. Farah could potentially grab the silver or bronze.
Banana Bread, KB will not make the Ethiopian team.
BOOM. You're welcome everyone.