lET THE PREIDCTIONS FOR THE FALL BEGIN
lET THE PREIDCTIONS FOR THE FALL BEGIN
columbia and dartmouth will wage a dual meet at ivy championsips. look at the returning runners for both squads. should be a good year though.
1. PRINCETON
2. DARTMOUTH
3. COLUMBIA
4. CORNELL
5. BROWN
6. YALE
7. PENN
8. HARVARD
Probably the greatest collection of lawyers-to-be competing in a fairly tough conference. Little to write home about on the national radar screen, but as an in-house rucus, should be good.
With heps on the horizon once more, it's time to start predicting.
Firstly, and most obviously, one does the ol' cross-out-last-year's-seniors-and-rescore-the-meet method. Doing so yields the following result (displacement not factored in)
Dartmouth 39
Columbia 58
Princeton 81
Cornell 121
Penn 134
Yale 135
Brown 167
Harvard 210
This method is generally fairly decent, but I wanted to take into account general trends in season-to-season development. So I went back to 2003, and crossing out that senior class, 'predicted' the results of last year's meet. Then I divided the Actual score by the precited score, giving a ratio of how well a team 'performed' (lower is better). Then I multiplied this ratio by this year's predicted scores by that ratio to determine a perhaps more accurate prediction.
'predicted' scores for the 2004 meet (from 2003 data)
Yale 60
Columbia 78
Brown 95
Harvard 101
Dartmouth 103
Penn 113
Princeton 117
Cornell 202
this yields the following ratios (from best to worst)
Cornell .72
Dartmouth .77
Penn .77
Columbia .90
Princeton .99
Brown 1.14
Harvard 1.78
Yale 1.90
This gives us a good idea of who had 'good' and 'bad' races when it counted.
Now obvoiusly the ratio has bias towards teams that were pathetic the previous year, and this comes out in the scores (which gravitate towards unrealistically low and insanely high), but I think the adjusted predicted scores give a good idea of where the teams will end up in November (October?).
Dartmouth 30.03
Columbia 52.20
Princeton 80.19
Cornell 87.12
Penn 103.18
Brown 190.38
Yale 256.5
Harvard 373.80
Now these scores are crazy, but I think the order of finish is probably very close to what we'll see. Any thoughts?
my thought is... do you have a job??!! Intersting predictions though.
My job is $9.75/hour worth of letsrun!
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I predict Columbia grows some nasty-ass facial hair.
That's for sure.
ole! wrote:
I predict Columbia grows some nasty-ass facial hair.
That's for sure.
I can't help but agree with that one...
i dont' know why these Princeton pussy cats keep claiming to be the favorites at Heps this year. they weren't even in the top 3 at last year's championship. Columbia, Dartmouth and Yale at least beat them (i forget the order after that). Yale and CU graduated a couple top guys, but Columbia is deep. I won't be surprised to see them right up front again this year, going for a second consecutive win. Dartmouth always boasts a stellar recruiting class, but that didnt' seem to help them much this past year did it. "i have the answer" wasn't lying. this year'll be the Columbia Lions and the Dartmouth Big Green (get a mascot) duking it out for the top spot at the Ivy League Championship
Dartmouth's 1st and 6th runners were frosh last year. I'd say that helped them.
and it showed last year at regionals when they choked. consider dartmouth a late flopper.
If Columbia is still bitter about that, then they should have gotten some at-large points so they could have gone. Rather than relying on Dartmouth to push them in.
Jesus.
i heard some of the team has already started with the facial hair
wow.
only in an ivy thread would something like this appear.g
good to know though.....?
princeton...dartmouth...and especially columbia will suck this year.
and with those 2 freshmen, they still fell short of 1st, that's all i'm saying, undeniable truth