What percentage chance did Pre realistically have of winning Olympic Gold, had he lived and competed?

Appropriate day for this post. If blacks and women couldn’t legally vote, does that make it right? Blood doping was always cheating. Some things are right or wrong regardless of the rules.

Why do some of you automatically assume that Viren blood doped?

To my knowledge, he has consistently denied it. From what I have read, he was offered a huge amount of money by a German magazine for the "real story", but when he told them the "real story" was that he did not blood dope, the offer was rescinded.

What he accomplished in a little over a week in Montreal, when one includes what he accomplished in his first marathon 21 hours after the 5000m final , was one of the truly great unsung performances in Olympic history, to my way of thinking.

But I guess we can all attribute it to blood doping, right? (eyes rolling)

sky wrote:

Why do some of you automatically assume that Viren blood doped?

To my knowledge, he has consistently denied it. From what I have read, he was offered a huge amount of money by a German magazine for the "real story", but when he told them the "real story" was that he did not blood dope, the offer was rescinded.

What he accomplished in a little over a week in Montreal, when one includes what he accomplished in his first marathon 21 hours after the 5000m final , was one of the truly great unsung performances in Olympic history, to my way of thinking.

But I guess we can all attribute it to blood doping, right? (eyes rolling)

To be honest, I believe to only reason why he gets accused of blood doping is that he defeated their idols. If he would've got third or fourth, I guarantee it that they wouldn't slander him like they do today. People forget that when he was at BYU, he ran under 14 minutes for 5000m with very little training. So to think someone as naturally gifted as he was could do what he did naturally is very within reason. People like to point to the fact that between the Olympics he didn't do much. This is explained by two factors. One, he didn't do much speed work outside of peaking for the Olympics. And two, he had a few injuries between the Olympics.

Terry Trueblood wrote:

1955 wrote:

He wasn't going to medal in the 5k, and maybe had a 5-10% chance in the 10k.

He'd basically plateaued in the 5k, and wasn't likely to beat anyone who did medal, but maybe had a shot at the 10k -- although, based on one race (his AR), hard to say.

I loved Pre at the time, and he undeniably had charisma, but he was not really competitive at the world level.

At the time of his death, he was #8 AT at 3k, #11 AT at 5k and #6 AT at 10k. Not a “world beater,” necessarily, but consistently “competitive at the world level.”

That's some distance from being a championship gold medallist - as the OP suggests he was capable of - or indeed any kind of medallist.

sky wrote:

Why do some of you automatically assume that Viren blood doped?

To my knowledge, he has consistently denied it. From what I have read, he was offered a huge amount of money by a German magazine for the "real story", but when he told them the "real story" was that he did not blood dope, the offer was rescinded.

What he accomplished in a little over a week in Montreal, when one includes what he accomplished in his first marathon 21 hours after the 5000m final , was one of the truly great unsung performances in Olympic history, to my way of thinking.

But I guess we can all attribute it to blood doping, right? (eyes rolling)

So when an athlete denies they have doped they must be telling the truth, right - since dopers routinely admit to doping?

Terry Trueblood wrote:

1955 wrote:

He wasn't going to medal in the 5k, and maybe had a 5-10% chance in the 10k.

He'd basically plateaued in the 5k, and wasn't likely to beat anyone who did medal, but maybe had a shot at the 10k -- although, based on one race (his AR), hard to say.

I loved Pre at the time, and he undeniably had charisma, but he was not really competitive at the world level.

At the time of his death, he was #8 AT at 3k, #11 AT at 5k and #6 AT at 10k. Not a “world beater,” necessarily, but consistently “competitive at the world level.”

I haven't gone back to look at T&FN, but how many international races did Pre win? He didn't go to Europe very often to race, and, if he won any, I suspect they were small meets. Again, I was very inspired by Pre but he wasn't what many would now like to remember him as.

I wished we'd talk more on these boards about lesser known great U.S. runners like Schul (Oly 5k Gold), Edelin (WR marathon), or Young (Oly steeple bronze).

Terry Trueblood wrote:

At the time of his death, he was #8 AT at 3k, #11 AT at 5k and #6 AT at 10k. Not a “world beater,” necessarily, but consistently “competitive at the world level.”

While true and somewhat impressive overall, the OP refers not only to winning a medal but winning Olympic Gold. None of the stats you mention add up to legit shot at Olympic Gold and barely a decent shot at a medal in the 10,000m had things occurred as they actually did in '76.

I was refuting a claim that Pre was “not really competitive at the world level,” which was clearly the level at which he was competitive.

1% chance of gold in either event.

Pretty long shot for a medal at 5k.

May have beaten Foster for bronze in the 10k—he didn’t need to run a PB or close in 54 to do so.

1955 wrote:

Terry Trueblood wrote:

At the time of his death, he was #8 AT at 3k, #11 AT at 5k and #6 AT at 10k. Not a “world beater,” necessarily, but consistently “competitive at the world level.”

I haven't gone back to look at T&FN, but how many international races did Pre win? He didn't go to Europe very often to race, and, if he won any, I suspect they were small meets. Again, I was very inspired by Pre but he wasn't what many would now like to remember him as.

I wished we'd talk more on these boards about lesser known great U.S. runners like Schul (Oly 5k Gold), Edelin (WR marathon), or Young (Oly steeple bronze).

Learn to use the IAAF website before you waste time posting.

Agreeing with various posts here.

Pre had no chance in the 5K in 76 with Dixon and Quax there. MAYBE 4th, if the race had gone exactly how it did.

Pre had a slim chance at bronze in the 10K in 76. Possibly Foster would have been tired enough, had Pre only run the 10K here.

The 1980 boycott would have ended his career, until he saw Lopes dip his toes into the marathon in 82. Maybe a thought of moving up. I can almost see him at 2:14 at NYC 1983. But just as easily I can see him as a 220 pound bartender after 1980.

1955 wrote:

Terry Trueblood wrote:

At the time of his death, he was #8 AT at 3k, #11 AT at 5k and #6 AT at 10k. Not a “world beater,” necessarily, but consistently “competitive at the world level.”

I haven't gone back to look at T&FN, but how many international races did Pre win? He didn't go to Europe very often to race, and, if he won any, I suspect they were small meets. Again, I was very inspired by Pre but he wasn't what many would now like to remember him as.

I wished we'd talk more on these boards about lesser known great U.S. runners like Schul (Oly 5k Gold), Edelin (WR marathon), or Young (Oly steeple bronze).

Or Billy Mills - another who did actually win a gold. Prefontaine is talked up way too much here. A college athlete fixation.

Terry Trueblood wrote:

1955 wrote:

I haven't gone back to look at T&FN, but how many international races did Pre win? He didn't go to Europe very often to race, and, if he won any, I suspect they were small meets. Again, I was very inspired by Pre but he wasn't what many would now like to remember him as.

I wished we'd talk more on these boards about lesser known great U.S. runners like Schul (Oly 5k Gold), Edelin (WR marathon), or Young (Oly steeple bronze).

Learn to use the IAAF website before you waste time posting.

Thanks for pointing me to that. So the answer is, 1.

Could have won the gold in the 5000 if he had stayed in lane 1.

Geometry wrote:

Could have won the gold in the 5000 if he had stayed in lane 1.

So he was dumb. That's an interesting way of explaining how 3 guys finished in front of him. He was drowning in the home straight. He finished his race in the back straight. It was the only time he could be in front.