For what it's worth he looks to be tapering seriously enough for this race -- last 3 weeks have been 105, 75, and he's at 50 for this week heading into tomorrow.
Per Strava:
1/16 Workout (at sea level): 4 x 1 mile (4:45, 4:44, 4:44, 4:44) with 3 minutes rest between reps; 3 mile warm up, 3 mile cool down
1/13 19 miles @ 5:50 pace
1/9 -- was supposed to be a 6 mile tempo but he only made it 4 -- 4:46, 4:43, 4:51, 4:55.
1/4 Workout (at sea level): 4+ mile WU, 3x 1 mile with 1 min rest (4:47, 4:41, 4:38), 800m recovery jog, 3x 1200m with 2 min rest (3:26, 3:25, 3:24), 800m recovery jog, 3x 400m with 400m recovery jog (64, 63, 61), 3ish mile CD
1:04 = 4:53 pace. 1:05 = 4:57 pace. He's a runner hurt by the faster standard. I can see him running 1:04-mid to 1:05-mid. If the standard was still 1:05 I would feel better about an OTQ. 1:03:59 is no joke, his PRs (albeit old -- 13:52/29:08) make it look possible. The tempo looks concerning but he also started out too hot. He needs to not get sucked into what the 1:01-1:02 guys go out at. I'm interested in this little experiment. I hope he gets it. If he's smart about pacing he can still drop a decent time. Surprised he chose to go after the half standard instead of finding somewhere flat in January/February/March to knock out a 2:18. I think the general LRC consensus that to have a shot at 2:18 you need to be around 14:45 for 5k which he, at one time, went well under. If he's on the start line in Atlanta, he could fight for the 2 & 3 spots on the hilly course.
I don't understand the LRC hate for him. It would be cool to see an ultra guy grab an OTQ.