Great thread here, love the discussion. Thanks to Mr. Gault for initiating it.
Back in 2013, the great Kenyan, Paul Tergat came out and said ‘no will ever break 2 hours in the marathon.’ RoJo and Letsrun agreed.
I completely disagreed at the time. It will happen, I said then, though it may be a generation away (though I've re-thought that in the wake of 2:00:26 and 2:01:39) . In part, I wrote this in 2013:
As I’ve said before, I think what it will take is a Bolt-like prodigy to emerge on the distance front. He’ll be in the lineage of a Kenenisa Bekele or Haile Gebrselassie. (And ideally, that prodigy will have age cohorts that are similarly talented... to drive one another.)
Early in his career, he’ll be able to run 10K and 5K in the low-26:00 / low–mid 12:00 range… and then switch to focus on the marathon while still in his mid-late 20s.
The current record of 2:02:57 is a 4:41/mile pace. (Again, me writing in 2013.)
A 1:59:59 will require a pace of just under 4:35.
Fast forward to today. We have that prodigy, albeit he's now in his 30s. It's Eliud Kipchoge. Although I consider myself a reasonably informed track and field fan, I'm ashamed to admit Kipchoge wasn't front of mind for me in 2013 when I wrote the above. Here are a couple of aspects of the sub-2 discussion that I don't think Jon touched on directly:
1.) What caliber of athlete are we looking at when considering someone with a realistic chance of breaking 2 hours? I alluded to Geb and Bekele-level PRs above, but to be more specific, let's have a look at a partial list of Kipchoge's:
Mile: 3:50
2 mile (indoor): 8:07
3000: 7:27
5000: 12:46
10000: 26:49
1/2: 59:25
Of course, Geb's and Bekele's PRs are in the same range, with most being superior, between both Geb and Bekele (vs Kipchoge).
Some the marks these three guys have put up are outrageous when you consider the range. For example, Geb's indoor 1500 meter mark from Feb 1998 equates to about a 3:47/3:48 mile. And he counter-balances that with a 58:55 half marathon, and for a time, the world marathon record of 2:03:59. Both Bekele and Kipchoge show this same range. Extraordinary. And all three are cerebral, philosophical, and psychologically strong. Kipchoge's advantages in these mental facets of the marathon game are detailed here, in the recent NY Times piece linked to from Letsrun:
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/14/sports/eliud-kipchoge-marathon.html
Our first sub-2 man will be an athlete like one of these. Looking around track and field right now, aside from Kipchoge, you'd want to keep an eye on Selemon Barega, who at 18, ran the year's fastest 5K, 12:43—the 4th fast all-time—in Brussels.
And since I mentioned Barega's age... here are some other notable ages (according to Wikipedia), of when these greats all ran their first marathon:
Geb: 29
Bekele: 32
Kipchoge: 28
2.) I don't think you can underestimate the psychological import/benefit of that 2:00:26 (as aided as it may have been) that Kipchoge carried with him into his record attempt in 2018 Berlin. Though he had pacers in the former, he had no 'official competitors/entrants/participants' for much of the attempt. Of his two fellows in that event, Lelisa dropped about a half hour in, and Tadese was gone before the halfway mark. So, much like his heroic 2018 Berlin chase, he was on his own for the 2nd half. The real value of the Nike experiment I believe for Kipchoge, was that he came out the other end of it knowing he could stay on his feet for the entire distance... carrying a pace of 4:35 per mile. All benefits of the event setup aside, his body still had to cover all 26.2 miles under his own power. That experience just had to provide him with a huge psychological touchstone in Berlin 2018.
Having said that, I do agree that for some foreseeable future, we are not going to see regular, further drops of that men's world marathon record. If anyone is to break 2:01:39 anytime soon, it will have to be Kipchoge himself. However, as evidenced by that time, I think it's safe to say that he is at the height of his marathon powers. And, much like he carried his 2:00:26 with him into Berlin 2018, he would carry not just his (unofficial) 2:00:26, but now also the official 2:01:39—a time he ran solo for the 2nd half—into Berlin, 2019 (or Rotterdam, or some other record-friendly course.
With Wilson Kipsang now 36, and Dennis Kimetto 34... it's likely Kipchoge would need to do it himself, unless (unlikely) one of those guys shows up and musters an effort to push him past the halfway mark at at even faster pace that this year's race. Or, another monster talent emerges somewhere in the world (also unlikely) over the next year. After what we just witnessed, I wouldn't put it past him.