I ran my first sub-3 (2:52) at Chicago last year off less mileage than you (but my workout paces were a little faster and I did 3 20+ mile long runs at MP). I think you have a realistic shot at sub-3 based on your mileage and the 13@MP and your 1:24/1:25 Half’s without taper.. Try to go for even/slightly positive splits. Good luck at Chicago!
Not the OP wrote:
dork_rothko wrote:
Righto. My point was you wrote you're trying to break 3, but you're actually going for something a bit more, no? Low-2:50 maybe?
Hey Dorko, nope. I don’t have the courage to go out at that pace. I’m at the higher end of masters running, so will be happy with sub-3. I know I could go quicker, but have very limited marathon experience, so just don’t want to risk blowing up after 4 months work.
OK, OK. Also a masters runner (low end), minimal marathon experience, also looking to break 3 in 3 weeks. I've run less than OP (I know you're not OP), putting in 60-70 since about the New Year. Similar recent 5K and half times to yours. 5x20 in this cycle (2:21-2:24).
1:28:30 and see what I have is more or less my plan.
I would say yes.
I ran a 3:03 with much less mileage and race specific training and only 1 half marathon under my belt (1:27).
The only thing that gives me pause is that your long runs are a little slow
dork_rothko wrote:
Not the OP wrote:
Hey Dorko, nope. I don’t have the courage to go out at that pace. I’m at the higher end of masters running, so will be happy with sub-3. I know I could go quicker, but have very limited marathon experience, so just don’t want to risk blowing up after 4 months work.
OK, OK. Also a masters runner (low end), minimal marathon experience, also looking to break 3 in 3 weeks. I've run less than OP (I know you're not OP), putting in 60-70 since about the New Year. Similar recent 5K and half times to yours. 5x20 in this cycle (2:21-2:24).
1:28:30 and see what I have is more or less my plan.
Really similar, although my MPW is less still - 55 average. 42-65 a week on a Daniels scale. I told myself go conservatively and get sub-3 this time and race the next one at full capability. All best laid plans...?. Hopefully, we’ll both smash it and can post back here in a few weeks ?
OP
You posted that you ran 17:55 for 5K and 1:24-25 for 1/2M.
Both those times suggest you have done the training required for a sub-3 in the marathon.
There are no guarantees but don't miss this opportunity. Imagine if you get injured or your circumstances change so you don't get to run so much and never get back to this level - you'd regret not trying.
Give it a go and see what happens. Seize the day. YOLO. Carpe Diem and all that.
Those numbers are easily sub 2:55. I’m a masters runner and if I ran slower than 2:55 off that I would be pretty upset with myself.
I would hope you could run under 3 hrs. You have put a crazy amount of time and effort into training. hundred mile weeks are no joke.
I am 25, but the few guys I know who have raced a marathon ran in the 2:40s off of like 80ish miles/week and I think 16-18 mile long run (tops). Granted they were sub 15 5k guys in college.
What kind of background do you have in the sport? Any good 10ks or 5ks in recent past?
Overall I am impressed with your mileage and think you will smash 3 hours. If I were you, I would go out the first half marathon right at 3 hr pace, than you can pick it up from there (if possible). Good luck!
You're there with a smart taper. The weather will help you, too. I don't think you can run 60 miles the week of the race and still break three hours. Aim for 60 miles two weeks out and 45 *intelligent* miles the week of the race. Don't change the pace of your runs or your workouts. Good luck!