UTMB Ultra Trail Mont-Blanc starts in 5 days & 3 hours- predictions etc

Third Wheel wrote:

Luis Alberto Hernando FTW

The guy is a beast and comes to UTMB fresher than opponents.

I'm also rooting for this guy! He is a hero, he works as a mountain rescuer in the Spanish Military Police.

UTMB is promoting a young buck to battle Walmsley and Kilian - Eugeni Gil, ran at Mount Olive in the NCAA... has had success in shorter European Mountain races, so a wildcard, but more of a talent like Zach Miller but less of a talent than Walmsley.

My prediction is that Jim wins with at least a 30 minute margin. It sounds like he learned a lot last year, and his training block was incredible. He proved he can stay sharp for 100 miles at WSER. He just looks like he's in peak form. Killian is a legend, and anything can happen in such a long race, but it just feels like this is Jim's moment.

Here's my question: if Jim can put together a great race and win in spectacular fashion, will that be enough to silence the haters on this website? Will he get a mention on the homepage? Huge wins at WSER and UTMB would be an incredible year, regardless of your thoughts on ultras.

fatbody wrote:

My prediction is that Jim wins with at least a 30 minute margin. It sounds like he learned a lot last year, and his training block was incredible. He proved he can stay sharp for 100 miles at WSER. He just looks like he's in peak form. Killian is a legend, and anything can happen in such a long race, but it just feels like this is Jim's moment.

Here's my question: if Jim can put together a great race and win in spectacular fashion, will that be enough to silence the haters on this website? Will he get a mention on the homepage? Huge wins at WSER and UTMB would be an incredible year, regardless of your thoughts on ultras.

I agree and cosign everything you just stated, and stated well. However, this is LRC and home to delusional, narrow minded former track, road runners, so the ultra world is still foreign or seen as race walking to many (who have never completed an ultra.) The amount of trolling on this page for UTMB is much lower than last year's, so maybe that's a good sign. With the stereotype of ultra runners changing, more haters will eventually see the beauty in sport, even if they never run one.

fatbody wrote:

Here's my question: if Jim can put together a great race and win in spectacular fashion, will that be enough to silence the haters on this website? Will he get a mention on the homepage? Huge wins at WSER and UTMB would be an incredible year, regardless of your thoughts on ultras.

Jim could win in a course record, beating Kilian by hours, and it wouldn't silence the critics. People will say, "Francois wasn't there" and "Kilian was tired". Some idiots will even say "Avery Collins did Tour de Geants instead, wait until next year"

but the truth is, if Jim wins UTMB this year, he'd be among the greatest ultrarunners of all time for sure. At this point, for the 100mi distance, he's only had success at western states, arguably twice in my opinion. Kilian and others have had way way way more success, with more consistency, over varying courses. A win at UTMB is just one win compared to the three that Kilian has. Kilian won WS100 once too, remember.

anyway...back to my Karel Sabbe thread I go

Correction : he would be the greatest ultradistance runner of all time .

reed wrote:

Jim could win in a course record, beating Kilian by hours, and it wouldn't silence the critics. People will say, "Francois wasn't there" and "Kilian was tired". Some idiots will even say "Avery Collins did Tour de Geants instead, wait until next year"

Yeah, that reminds me of how in this interview some Euro guy says no American has ever won UTMB, then Walmsley corrects the dude saying one American woman won it once.

It's like in their mind Americans are just weak runners because they don't have the same kinds of mountains. I'd love to see a Euro go down to WS and crush that race...

To me, it’s a Walmsley vs. Killian race. If there’s another runner who could win, I think it’s Alex Nichols. Lots of other guys have the potential to finish in the top 10, but winning this race, beating both Jim and Killian is just not something most of the top contenders are capable of.

The great thing about a race with UTMB’s elevation profile and it’s length is that absolutely anything can happen.

There was a reference about other Americans winning the UTMB. That’s, of course, correct. American women have won UTMB which is very cool. In ultrarunning, women make up a small percentage of the fields, and there a really just a handful of women on the sharp end of the competitive field in big races, but this competition gap is closing on the men quite quickly. Unlike the track or road, where it took generations for women’s fields to develop competitive parity, this is happening much more quickly in ultrarunning. The women’s fields are not on par with the men’s fields yet, but it’s getting there, quickly.

Piano_Man87 wrote:

[quote]reed wrote:

Yeah, that reminds me of how in this interview some Euro guy says no American has ever won UTMB, then Walmsley corrects the dude saying one American woman won it once.

It's like in their mind Americans are just weak runners because they don't have the same kinds of mountains. I'd love to see a Euro go down to WS and crush that race...

Yeah, uh, if the guy says that no American won the race, and sex wasn't mentioned, it likely means a man by default. A man will always be the fastest in the UTMB. Did the American woman who won the women's side of the UTMB that year beat the top man? No!

btw, you don't notice the Euros coming and crushing the hardest of the mountain ultras in the US - Hardrock? Also won Pikes Peak many times. WS is just not conducive to Euro wins because they don't train for running in 120 degrees.

Something to remember about Jim, he's still pretty raw as it comes to Mountain running, as I am sure you're in tune with that, but a lot of people will quickly make the "but he's not Killian" type comparison on these boards. What's crazy is, Jim's really only been doing this since 2014, and really come on strong the last 2.5 years. Killian has been running high mountain races when Jim was still doing mile repeats on the track in college 8-10 years ago. It's hard to believe Killian is only 30, I often forget that too because he's been elite for the better part of a decade now, hard to fathom.

And yes, I am the idiot that believes Avery Collins will be a top runner @ UTMB when he runs it. Didn't say he'd beat Walmsley or Killian, but he'll be top 10, maybe even top 5. I said it here first.

Interesting to see a majority of the comments here is all about the men's race. Looking @ irunfar.com there are only 20 comments on the women's preview & there are 133 comments on the men's preview right now as of 8:38 am eastern time.

Is this mostly a male thing? Do female fans just don't comment that often or read running websites? I'm sure the women's race will be interesting...

Ultra running fan wrote:

Interesting to see a majority of the comments here is all about the men's race. Looking @ irunfar.com there are only 20 comments on the women's preview & there are 133 comments on the men's preview right now as of 8:38 am eastern time.

Is this mostly a male thing? Do female fans just don't comment that often or read running websites? I'm sure the women's race will be interesting...

It's mostly a male thing in the US, at least in the longer, harder races. In the Hardrock 100, only 14 of the 146 starters (9.6%) this year were women. In the Crow Pass Crossing, a 22 mile mountain race in Alaska, 35 of 135 (26%) starters were women

Ultra running fan wrote:

Interesting to see a majority of the comments here is all about the men's race. Looking @ irunfar.com there are only 20 comments on the women's preview & there are 133 comments on the men's preview right now as of 8:38 am eastern time.

Is this mostly a male thing? Do female fans just don't comment that often or read running websites? I'm sure the women's race will be interesting...

I'll admit to following a majority of the men's races but that doesn't take away from the women toeing the line. USA packs a punch with the roster this weekend, I think it's a natural draw for men to follow men and women to tune in closer to women. With that being said, it's super bad ass that Clare Gallagher won CCC last year, epic performance after faulting late in Western. As fans, I think we take for granted what both men and women do in these races, but it's nothing short of heroic relative to athletic feats. My Dad who's a big sports fan but asides from olympic sprints and some old school marathoners from the 70s and 80s, he's clueless to the ultra world and running in general. He's traveled all through Europe for work and I explained to him the Mt Blanc running series, he didn't believe me. He looked it up online and was just blown away wrapping his head around runners doing this, as he's seen Mt Blanc from the plane and in person, he said, "that's just insane, I am speechless reading about this race."

TDS is underway:

https://utmbmontblanc.com/en/live/tds

Dylan Bowman leading at the moment, near the 80k mark.

Wth. There's a race called the PTL that is 300K in distance?? Already 56 hours in. Total vertical looks crazy.

Ah you think mountains are Jim's ally? He merely adopted the mountains. Kilian was born in it, molded by it. He didn't see the flat until he was already a man, by then it was nothing to him but blinding!”

anyway, not sure what you're even arguing. we are comparing Kilian and Jim in 2018, not in 2022. There's nothing Jim can do in 2018 to make him the GOAT over Kilian. That took Kilian years to become and it won't be handed down easily.

anyway, TDS is happening NOW so let's discuss that. Bowman is in 3rd behind Swierc and Mityaev. They are basically all together (within 2 minutes or so) after 12 hours and change. That last checkpoint was 15-20 minutes ago so they have their final downhill into Les Houches (4.6km) plus 7.8km gentle uphill to the finish. Probably an hour and a half until the finish.

Bowman into 2nd at the last aid station! He's 2-3 minutes behind the leader with 7.8km of easy running to go. It's dark, it's raining.

Dylan went straight through the aid station with no aid as he passed Swierc who had to refill water and switch out headlamps.

Looks like they're running around 8min pace, so could be something like 40 minutes to the finish.

Dylan does manage to overtake Mityaev but Swierc overtakes him and wins by 62 seconds (in a 13 hour race). That's as exciting as it gets at the end of an ultra!

meanwhile Rory Bosio is in 2nd in the womens race, 9 minutes off the lead but with over 20k to go. That's too close to call with a couple hours of racing remaining.