hypotheticalscenario wrote:
Assuming an outdoor 400m track.
The two runners start at the same time; the first to be able to lap (technically half-lap) the other one is winning (so he/she has to do 200m than the other in the same time).
Which specialist would be better suited for these events? I am thinking of 1500m specialists.
The 400m specialists could go for a quick win but they will probably slow down and be unable to restart.
Does this event exist?
So the key here as some have realized is that it's very hard to make up 200m on a runner of similar ability. So in a sense it just comes down to who is the fastest runner over 10k-marathon.
BUT, the strategy isn't going to be to actually go out so fast you catch the guy early. That won't work. What WILL work is to force the other guy to positive split and then be a better positive splitter. Then you slowly grind him into the ground.
I think a prime Bekele wins this just because of how good he was, but he's always been a big kicker and a fast finisher. The format doesn't suit him. Neither does it suit Farah, or Gebrselassie. Kipchoge has done well with a positive split, and so has Kamworor.
But prime Sammy Wanjiru will absolutely shine in this format.
Here's the strategy: go out in around 13:10. The other guy is then force to go out in around 13:20 (well he's not forced, but I don't think an elite runner is going to want to willingly give up more than 10 seconds to prime Wanjiru when neither of them is going all-out).
Then run 13:45 for the second 5k, and the other guy will do 13:40. Then he's run a 27-minute 10k with a sizable positive split, only to still be slightly behind. I think almost every runner will physically crack soon after this, while Wanjiru could go say 14:20, 15:00 and roll the guy down.
Maybe someone like Kipchoge or prime Bekele/Geb could hold on to this sort of pace. And maybe someone like Kamworor could beat Wanjiru at his own game. But I don't think anyone else in the world could live with this pace.