Wait, why is Kirui not the favorite?

kick like ismael wrote:

Did I miss something in the past few months? All I know is:

1) He won Boston and Worlds last year, defeating his two most heralded competitors (Rupp and Tola) in those races

2) He was the consensus #1 marathoner (non-Kipchoge division) in 2017

3) No one has talked to him, but it seems he's training well.

Did I miss some 63-minute HM somewhere? Or an injury? Look, I can see why you could be really excited about Rupp. Or really excited about Tola etc. So I'm not saying he needs to be *your* favorite. But he's the favorite on paper, right? Why is no one talking about him that way?

Because LRC sets the tone when it comes to “insider discussion” and they have decided that he’s not the favorite.

haha he worked Rupp last year.

Well, he's not American born so that really works against you on this website. Obvious there is an American + white bias on here.

There are something like 16 guys with faster PRs than Rupp on the men's side. Yes, his PR is soft and a fast time is out for tomorrow which helps his case but Kirui is the favorite. Tola, Berhanu, Desisa, and Kigen should all be in the mix. It'll be interesting if they're all still there late in the race.

Much more likely to see an American woman win. 4 of the best in America going up against 4-6 solid international athletes. Kiplagat has to be the favorite but the percent odds are a lot better in this race.

Only an idiot would bet against Rupp in this race. Kirui's had some important wins but just doesn't have Rupp's kick and raw speed. It's why Daniel Wanjiru and Sammy Kitwara were able to easily streak away from him at the 2016 Amsterdam Marathon.

Abel Kirui of course can be one of the favourite , if not only for his great career, but maybe not the favourite.

His personal best in the marathon is from 2009 2:05:04 in Rotterdam. Last year in London 2:07:45 for the 4thplace.

In London you will have this guys: Eliud Kipchoge pb 2:03:05" london 2016. Bekele pb 2:03:03 Berlin 2016

Wanjiru pb 2:05:21" London 2017 , Guye Adola 2:03:46 Berlin 2017

Then Lawrence Cherono 2:05:09 2017 in Amsterdam , Tola Shura Kitata 2:05:50 2017 Frankfurt

Then we have Bedan Karoki 2:07:41 pb 2017. But able to run 58:42 in 2018 and also 26:52 in 10000 in London World 2017

This guy of course can make great things in the marathon.

Same with Mo Farah his pb in the marathon 2:08:21 of course dont tell the truth of his potential. Anyway Mo is a guy that

in london 2017 10000 made 26:46" . So he's in his top shape ,Now we got to see how that great basic speed has been translated in his Marathon specific speed.

All these guys above are great favourite . The pace they will lead the race will be very important. Everybody says Eliud is the favourite, yes of course but every year also for him is more difficult and it can be also a suprise result. Look at last year Berlin and see what Guye Adola did. Those younger guys can run very very well next sunday. It will be a very tough race for sure.

I don’t understand you people, Rupp is never the fav, everyone is faster and better, but the race is always rigged for Rupp?

Sorry guys I thought you were talk about Abel Kirui for next sunday London.

While of course you mean Geoffrey Kirui for the Boston marathon.

Rupp is favorite because he’s in his best condition yet for marathon, he’s not injured, he’s confident, and if the weather is poor— rain and cool - he should be even more the favorite as Rupp is quite comfortable in these conditions. Africans, not so much.

1) Rupp was not in very good form for Boston 2017, while he is apparently in the best shape of his life for Boston 2018. There are few that could beat even Chicago 2017 Rupp. People downplay that performance because of the slow time, but that last 10km was ridiculous.

2) Kirui has had 1 race since worlds in August -- a 60:04 half. A good time, but he placed 6th, with the winner in 59:46. On the other hand, Rupp ran 59:47 in Rome into a headwind a month ago, with the last 5km solo.

3) It's a bit strange that Kirui hasn't raced in 2018, possibly indicating a training disruption/injury. At the least, his fitness coming into this race is unknown.

4) Rupp seems to do particularly well in poor weather and is accustomed to rain. Not sure about Kirui in particular, but East Africans tend to struggle with the rain/cold.

El Keniano wrote:

Only an idiot would bet against Rupp in this race. Kirui's had some important wins but just doesn't have Rupp's kick and raw speed. It's why Daniel Wanjiru and Sammy Kitwara were able to easily streak away from him at the 2016 Amsterdam Marathon.

If he had Rupp's kick and raw speed he would have lost last year!

DC Wonk wrote:

Rupp is favorite because he’s in his best condition yet for marathon, he’s not injured, he’s confident, and if the weather is poor— rain and cool - he should be even more the favorite as Rupp is quite comfortable in these conditions. Africans, not so much.

The two favored Ethiopian guys are saying they're looking froward to the tough conditions as they train in all kinds of weather. They feel its an advantage to them.

some reasons wrote:

1) Rupp was not in very good form for Boston 2017, while he is apparently in the best shape of his life for Boston 2018. There are few that could beat even Chicago 2017 Rupp. People downplay that performance because of the slow time, but that last 10km was ridiculous.

2) Kirui has had 1 race since worlds in August -- a 60:04 half. A good time, but he placed 6th, with the winner in 59:46. On the other hand, Rupp ran 59:47 in Rome into a headwind a month ago, with the last 5km solo.

3) It's a bit strange that Kirui hasn't raced in 2018, possibly indicating a training disruption/injury. At the least, his fitness coming into this race is unknown.

4) Rupp seems to do particularly well in poor weather and is accustomed to rain. Not sure about Kirui in particular, but East Africans tend to struggle with the rain/cold.

This is a great post--I didn't realize Kirui hasn't raced at all this year.

I'm definitely not trying to say we shouldn't call it "Rupp vs. Kirui 2.0" or argue that Rupp is the favorite. But the 1. Rupp 2. Tola 3. Berhanu predictions have befuddled me a little bit. I still don't think that Kirui is getting enough attention, but if he hasn't raced this year, it's hard to predict what he'll do.

So why do you say he is not the favorite? Who decides who is the favorite for a race or a game or a match? It's an opinion so if he's your favorite then great! Doesn't matter what the few at the top say who the favorite is! Trump wasn't the favorite by those at the top but he obviously was the favorite and won!!!

dunno bout this wrote:

DC Wonk wrote:

Rupp is favorite because he’s in his best condition yet for marathon, he’s not injured, he’s confident, and if the weather is poor— rain and cool - he should be even more the favorite as Rupp is quite comfortable in these conditions. Africans, not so much.

The two favored Ethiopian guys are saying they're looking froward to the tough conditions as they train in all kinds of weather. They feel its an advantage to them.

Regardless of whether or not Rupp or the Ethiopians like poor weather, who would admit to their competition right before the race that they expect to do poorly?

Kirui is the favorite, I don't think anyone would dispute that.

I for one am more interested in reading about Rupp, whom I've been following since 2008 (I was on letsrun for the inception of the 'Rupp-certified meme :) ). that's very much a reflection of American priorities. Frankly i find getting to know the Kenyan athletes a little difficult. First, language barriers. Second, this is of course a rough generalization but they boast like crazy at the pre-race events. They say 'I'm in the best shape of my life', and then something goes wrong and they say 'oh well my ankle was bothering me.' At this point, I tune such things out.

As the Brojos noted, however, it still makes sense to favor the field over Kirui.

El Keniano wrote:

Only an idiot would bet against Rupp in this race. Kirui's had some important wins but just doesn't have Rupp's kick and raw speed. It's why Daniel Wanjiru and Sammy Kitwara were able to easily streak away from him at the 2016 Amsterdam Marathon.

El Keniano, Kirui has great speed (26'55" for 10K when was only 18), very much comparable with Rupp. And we should not forget that the race in Amsterdam was a long time ago while Kirui was still learning the ropes. What was missing then was speed endurance and though he still got some ways to go on that, he employed it last year in both his wins and that made the difference. His coach Canova revealed that Kirui wasn't a fan of his intense speed & speed endurance developing training blocks and only ran from raw talent and long runs in his first two marathons.

So in short the Kirui of 2018 is an improved version of 2017''s and this for two reasons: His first win came in 2017 and once you win, you want to keep winning and the money that come with it. Related to this is the fact he has a chance to at least share in the WMM jackpot if he wins tomorrow.

The second reason Kirui is better this year is the fact that he realized Canova''s blocks do the "magic". So I am sure he indulged more and more in it, making him a "lethal" machine marathonwise.

That said, the weather tomorrow will greatly affect the outcome. It is very likely a little known wins the race. On the women side it's going to be tough for Ednah since she has a track record of not doing well in rain.

kick like ismael wrote:

Did I miss something in the past few months? All I know is:

1) He won Boston and Worlds last year, defeating his two most heralded competitors (Rupp and Tola) in those races

2) He was the consensus #1 marathoner (non-Kipchoge division) in 2017

3) No one has talked to him, but it seems he's training well.

Did I miss some 63-minute HM somewhere? Or an injury? Look, I can see why you could be really excited about Rupp. Or really excited about Tola etc. So I'm not saying he needs to be *your* favorite. But he's the favorite on paper, right? Why is no one talking about him that way?

As for Kirui, right after we published that we didn't get to speak to him at the press event, on the way out of the press, we did bump into agent Valentin Truow in the restaurant at the hotel and Truow said Kirui was fit but has changed things up.

Kirui no longer wrks Canova. Last year before Boston, he'd leave the part of Kenya where he's pretty much the only big elite and go see Canova for key workouts. Before Worlds, he did that a few times but less than before Bston.

This time he hasn't been going to Canova at all bu when you are training alone, it's hard to know where you stand and t he did want to see how he was doing fitness wise so he went to Patrick Sang's camp to do some workouts so he could get a gauge of whether he's in shape or not (Remember, these guys are often running on feel, not on time courses and at big time altitude). He ended up staying at Sang's camp for close to 3 weeks.

So I think Kirui - given his wins in 2017 - deserves to be the favorite on paper if they are both in form. The reason why Rupp may get the nod inn the prediction cntest is everyone 100% know he's in shape based off of that 59:47. With no prep races, you have to take people's word that Kirui isn't just 80% fit and showing up mainly for the appearance fee.

Seyta wrote:

dunno bout this wrote:

The two favored Ethiopian guys are saying they're looking froward to the tough conditions as they train in all kinds of weather. They feel its an advantage to them.

Regardless of whether or not Rupp or the Ethiopians like poor weather, who would admit to their competition right before the race that they expect to do poorly?

Apparently, everyone in the Hasay discussion thinks you should.

moman415 wrote:

So why do you say he is not the favorite? Who decides who is the favorite for a race or a game or a match? It's an opinion so if he's your favorite then great! Doesn't matter what the few at the top say who the favorite is! Trump wasn't the favorite by those at the top but he obviously was the favorite and won!!!

That's a flawed analogy at best, given that more people voted against T than for him, and in fact more people demonstrated against his win than for it.

I think we should stick to running to analyze running....