Hardloper wrote:
There are ten from our country, but in Gladwell's native Canada there are 3 more, plus several more from Gladwell's country of birth (UK). Maybe there's a reason he wouldn't give a precise number.
There are also 13 grades in Canadia so it's not uncommon for 19 (& some 20 year olds) to be considered a high schooler.
maybe you should just read more widely.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Relative_age_effect
https://www.wired.com/2013/03/nhl-selection-bias/
and it isn't just hockey
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/02/100202101251.htm
Ziplocker wrote:
running commenter wrote:
Hasn't a high schooler broken 4 minutes like the last 5 years? Seems pretty routine at this point to me.
OK so if you went out on a date once per year for the last 5 years, you would say that you routinely date, apparently. High school runners who break 4 are rare.
Rekt
I can get statistics to say anything I want to fit my agenda.
Brian Gates wrote:
He once published a theory of his that NHL hockey players became professionals because they were born earlier in they year and therefore received more coaching as kids (he thinks being a few months older = bigger and stronger than younger peers). Based on this, I’m certain that Gladwell is a grade-A idiot and would never read another word he wrote.
Of all the claims he's made, this is one of the more substantiated.
smd wrote:
I can't recall its name, but there's a phenomenon about this: You see media coverage of a topic you're very knowledgeable in and you know they're getting basic things wrong. (For example, that sub-4s happen within 10Ks.) But in areas where you don't have expert knowledge, you assume other parts of the same publication are more or less getting it right. For all we know, there are economists shaking their heads at the New Yorker's business and finance coverage, and then telling their friends, "Says here they now run sub-4 miles in 10Ks!"
Actually, this phenomenon sounds like the sort of thing Gladwell would write a book about!
You're referring to The Murray Gell-Mann Amnesia Effect, which Michael Crichton identified and named after the physicist friend of his. He defines it this way:
"Briefly stated, the Gell-Mann Amnesia effect works as follows. You open the newspaper to an article on some subject you know well. In Murray’s case, physics. In mine, show business. You read the article and see the journalist has absolutely no understanding of either the facts or the issues. Often, the article is so wrong it actually presents the story backward-reversing cause and effect. I call these the “wet streets cause rain” stories. Paper’s full of them.
In any case, you read with exasperation or amusement the multiple errors in a story-and then turn the page to national or international affairs, and read with renewed interest as if the rest of the newspaper was somehow more accurate about far-off Palestine than it was about the story you just read. You turn the page, and forget what you know.
That is the Gell-Mann Amnesia effect. I’d point out it does not operate in other arenas of life. In ordinary life, if somebody consistently exaggerates or lies to you, you soon discount everything they say. In court, there is the legal doctrine of falsus in uno, falsus in omnibus, which means untruthful in one part, untruthful in all.
But when it comes to the media, we believe against evidence that it is probably worth our time to read other parts of the paper. When, in fact, it almost certainly isn’t. The only possible explanation for our behavior is amnesia."
Yes, butt wrote:
There are also 13 grades in Canadia so it's not uncommon for 19 (& some 20 year olds) to be considered a high schooler.
Canada hasn't had "grade 13" anywhere for decades lol. Also, each province decides how to structure their education system, including the number of school years, so blanket statements about how school is in Canada are irrelevant.
In case you really care: Ontario most recently had grade 13 in 1988, and replaced it with an intermediate year (OAC) for students going on to university (not a mandatory part of your high school diploma). Quebec has a shorter high school (ends in grade 11), but has CEGEP (1-2y junior college) for students going to university. As far as I am aware, no other province has had anything more than grade 12.
Ziplocker wrote:
In fairness to Gladwell, as an experiment, I want to confess that I misrepresented something he wrote. However, either nobody noticed it or nobody bothered to comment.
Much like Gladwell misrepresented, or rather, misled readers in the New Yorker.
Gladwell actually wrote that ”decent” elite 10000m runners could probably run a sub 4 in a 10000m. This is still rather misleading, however. I am not exactly sure what a “decent” elite 10000m runner is statistically, but if it is a 27:15 runner, yes, some probably could run sub 4 in a 10000m race, but they don’t, because it is impractical. If I said that the top few marathoners in the world could probably run sub 4 in a marathon, it arguably might be not obviously false, but it is rather misleading, because they don’t, and the few that could would be doing it for the first mile and then paying a price for it.
From the article:
‘In fact, a decent élite long-distance runner can probably run a four-minute mile within a world-class ten-thousand-metre race: do a brisk five miles, and then bring it home in four minutes.’
It doesn’t matter that you think that it’s impractical, what he stated is that it is probable in the LAST mile. In 10k championship races, they run relatively slow for the first 5 miles and the last mile is the fastest. If the goal were to run a 4 min mile instead of winning the race, there probably would be a few that would do it.
I’m pretty certain he knows a bit more about running than most in the forum and I’m confident that he was faster than 90% of the people in this forum. He was supposedly a young phenom in the 1,500.
Also, 4 min is ‘routine’ within the context of the article. Considering that it had not been done before Bannister in 1954, it’s routinely done by high school kids in the last few years compared to let’s say 20 years ago when it was rare.
Hardloper wrote:
compressed wrote:
That would be Gladwell's job to tell us, but according to the third poster on this thread (who was quoting flowtrack), the number is 10:
"It may not be routine for high school runners to do it, but there have been a few and it happens with less fanfare. I just googled it -- in 2017 Reed Brown became the 10th, according to flowtrack. I don't remember Reed Brown's name and I check the boards pretty regularly."
There are ten from our country, but in Gladwell's native Canada there are 3 more, plus several more from Gladwell's country of birth (UK). Maybe there's a reason he wouldn't give a precise number.
Hardloper: good point - my mistake to only consider US runners.
Vivalarepublica: haha I am not Gladwell. While I would enjoy his fame and relative fortune, I would not want my name on some of his best-known work. His 'Outliers' is remarkably bad analysis, in my non-so-humble opinion. The whole point of my post was to point out how sloppy he his, despite fancy presentation of quantitative data.
context matters wrote:
Ziplocker wrote:
In fairness to Gladwell, as an experiment, I want to confess that I misrepresented something he wrote. However, either nobody noticed it or nobody bothered to comment.
Much like Gladwell misrepresented, or rather, misled readers in the New Yorker.
Gladwell actually wrote that ”decent” elite 10000m runners could probably run a sub 4 in a 10000m. This is still rather misleading, however. I am not exactly sure what a “decent” elite 10000m runner is statistically, but if it is a 27:15 runner, yes, some probably could run sub 4 in a 10000m race, but they don’t, because it is impractical. If I said that the top few marathoners in the world could probably run sub 4 in a marathon, it arguably might be not obviously false, but it is rather misleading, because they don’t, and the few that could would be doing it for the first mile and then paying a price for it.
From the article:
‘In fact, a decent élite long-distance runner can probably run a four-minute mile within a world-class ten-thousand-metre race: do a brisk five miles, and then bring it home in four minutes.’
It doesn’t matter that you think that it’s impractical, what he stated is that it is probable in the LAST mile. In 10k championship races, they run relatively slow for the first 5 miles and the last mile is the fastest. If the goal were to run a 4 min mile instead of winning the race, there probably would be a few that would do it.
I’m pretty certain he knows a bit more about running than most in the forum and I’m confident that he was faster than 90% of the people in this forum. He was supposedly a young phenom in the 1,500.
Also, 4 min is ‘routine’ within the context of the article. Considering that it had not been done before Bannister in 1954, it’s routinely done by high school kids in the last few years compared to let’s say 20 years ago when it was rare.
You are ignorant. It is NOT probable to run a sub 4 minute mike in the last mile of a 10000m race. You are misquoting Gladwell but in the process manifesting a lack of comprehension. Gladwell wrote in a misleading and arguably false manner, and you neither comprehended what he wrote nor understand much about distance running.
Malcom Gladwell has made a living off of the stupid by becoming the master of pseudo profound bull shlt. Everyone knows this. When you see an article written by him all you can do, unless you are an idiot, is lower your expectations, or better yet, don’t read it. Gosh an article where Malcom Gladwell exaggerated and/or was otherwise full of shlt? That’s what he does. Why let yourself be upset that he writes to the lowest common denominator. You should be happy you know he’s full of shlt, it means you aren’t his target audience.
Yes, butt wrote:
There are also 13 grades in Canadia so it's not uncommon for 19 (& some 20 year olds) to be considered a high schooler.
No, not in all of Canada, just Ontario. Everywhere else is just grade 12.
Twig Mzungu wrote:
To be fair, he wasn't pulling a theory out of thin air. He was reporting a peer-reviewed paper that found a statically significant relationship between birth month and likelihood of reaching the NHL. If it wasn't a surprising result, he wouldn't have bothered reporting it. Writing someone off as a "grade-A idiot" for finding an interesting result is the academic version of assuming that whoever wins a race must be doping.
The correlation is a coincidence. Gladwell’s theory is utterly stupid.
Agree with OP on this wrote:
smd wrote:
Disagree. Gladwell is writing about Bannister only because he was the first to break 4:00. Gladwell then makes basic factual errors about how common sub-4:00 is now.
Totally agree with the OP. Hardloper is off base here and being a bit of a putz.
putz
1. n. the penis. (Usually objectionable.) He held his hands over his putz and ran for the bedroom.
2. n. a stupid or obnoxious male; a stupid person. (Usually objectionable.) What a stupid putz!
Yup, that's him.
Again, there is nothing routine about a high school runner breaking the 4 minute mile. Gladwell is smart enough to know this. Gladwell tries but epicallly fails to make the point that Roger Bannister was ordinary. There was nothing ordinary about him. Bannister was a tremendous athlete. NONE of the last 5 high school boys who broke 4 would have done so on the cinder track Bannister ran on. The only one of the last 5 to run faster than 3:59.3 was Hunter. Gladwell can cavalierly and erroneously state it is routine but it is nothing but, just as Bannister was not ordinary. Far from it. I am not in the camp that would label Gladwell an idiot, but he writes some of this crap ostensibly because it serves his faulty narrative, and I think he does it knowingly.
Ontario wrote:
Yes, butt wrote:
There are also 13 grades in Canadia so it's not uncommon for 19 (& some 20 year olds) to be considered a high schooler.
No, not in all of Canada, just Ontario. Everywhere else is just grade 12.
Did they bring it back?
nah butt wrote:
In case you really care: Ontario most recently had grade 13 in 1988....
So, all my college roommates who were from Canadia (4 in all...3 were VERY good and competed for Team Canada) and graduated in the late 90s were lying when they came in as freshman and were 20?
They ALL went to grade 13, bro. Every. Single. One. Of. Them.
Yes, butt wrote:
nah butt wrote:
In case you really care: Ontario most recently had grade 13 in 1988....
So, all my college roommates who were from Canadia (4 in all...3 were VERY good and competed for Team Canada) and graduated in the late 90s were lying when they came in as freshman and were 20?
They ALL went to grade 13, bro. Every. Single. One. Of. Them.
Well, they changed the name to OAC, but they had a 5th year of high school until like 2002 or 2003. It is formally gone now but some kids will still take a victory lap and spend a 5th year in high school.
If you google "Malcolm Gladwell running" you'll find he's quite into it.
e.g
https://www.runnersworld.com/celebrity-runners/a-running-conversation-with-malcolm-gladwell
Apparently ran a 4:54 mile at Fifth Avenue mile in 2014 finishing 5th in age50-54 category.
https://www.menshealth.com/fitness/malcolm-gladwell
Year before he ran 5:03 and finished 11th of 161
https://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2013/09/malcolm-gladwell-fast-runner/310740/
He probably reads these boards routinely ;-)
Fast wrote:
If you google "Malcolm Gladwell running" you'll find he's quite into it.
e.g
https://www.runnersworld.com/celebrity-runners/a-running-conversation-with-malcolm-gladwellApparently ran a 4:54 mile at Fifth Avenue mile in 2014 finishing 5th in age50-54 category.
https://www.menshealth.com/fitness/malcolm-gladwellYear before he ran 5:03 and finished 11th of 161
https://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2013/09/malcolm-gladwell-fast-runner/310740/He probably reads these boards routinely ;-)
I think you are mistaken. Those are clearly pictures of Cam Levins.