I will be racing a point-to-point half marathon pretty soon and based on the past results, I may be largely in no-man's land for much of the race, so it's unlikely I'll get to reduce any wind effects I may experience through trading drafting with people. Course is fast and flat and in the same direction pretty much the whole way, but usually averages about a 3-ish mph headwind. How much should I expect this to affect my pace if I'm looking to be about 5:30 pace for a half in good conditions? Daniels (via Runworks Calculator) claims it's like 9 seconds per mile, but I suspect that they grossly overestimate wind effects. I've seen very old studies that claim that a tailwind at the pace you're running at would help you out by about 12 seconds a mile and that you have to square the ratio to compare wind effect; thus, if I had a headwind at 1/3 of my pace, I'd only be 1-2 seconds per mile slower as a result. 1-2 seconds per mile vs 9 seconds per mile is a massive difference. Any thoughts? Any strong evidence to back these thoughts?