How long could Matthew Centrowitz go without training and beat Jenny Simpson in the mile?

Jonathan Gault wrote:

I'm convinced he could still break 4:20 and beat Jenny Simpson a year later. Do you realize how talented you have to be to be the Olympic champion? Even among pro runners, he's an outlier.

I, like Jon, also said he could still beat her after a year off, stipulating that he couldn't put on weight (so that means he has to stay generally fit even if he isn't running). You just have to consider 1) How insanely talented he is and 2) He only needs to run 30-seconds slower than his PR.

Lenny Leonard wrote:

Now, running head to head vs. time trialing in solo efforts against her would be two different stories. I think Centro could run 4:20 by going 67-67-67-59, even with a long break.

I agree this is an important consideration. We were talking in terms of a head-to-head race (we were actually talking about the 5th Avenue Mile at the time). If we were talking about completely separate time trials then I'd have much less confidence in Centro. I think he would need the competitiveness of the race to spur him to beat her. Also, he doesn't necessarily even have to run 4:20. He can just sit and kick faster than her the last 150m.

Alberto's extras plus altitude tents etc.

What about cross training or aqua jogging?

The special sauce may also give Centro a few extra months.

Centro career is over.just believe it

Jonathan Gault wrote:

And if that's the case, I'm convinced he could still break 4:20 and beat Jenny Simpson a year later. Do you realize how talented you have to be to be the Olympic champion? Even among pro runners, he's an outlier.

I would say Ryan Hall was an outlier as well. How long did it take him to go from a 2:15 runner at the end of his career to a guy that could barely break 3 with a lot of weight training? A year? How much running did he do in that period?

Of course a marathon is different from a mile, but as others have suggested it depends on how much weight Centro put on.

Subway Surfers Addiction wrote:

Depends on what shape Jenny is in? Peak shape 3:57 or early season out of shape 4:05. Probably 6 months max. I heard a story of how Peter Snell got back in shape some 10-15 years after retiring, after a month or so of training he could run around 49s for 400m. Top guys probably never lose their talent.

I want to hear more about this. I've never heard anything like that from any print source or interviews, so I'm inclined to think you got your wires crossed somewhere. Got a source?

mustache ride wrote:

is centrowitz allowed to play 2 hrs of pickup basketball per day or do we tie him to a chair and force him to play minecraft 18 hrs/day?

both. 18h minecraft, 2h pickup basketball, 4h sleep.

Matt centrowitz is in such good shape that it would be painful for him not to keep training to a minimum. This is like asking how many hot dogs can Matt centrowitz eat in under an hour. Like Steve magness said, under stimulation can cause illness and health issues. This hypothetical would be cruel and unusual punishment for Mr. centrowitz .

wejo wrote:

That was the big theoretical debate on the weekly LetsRun call. Somehow Centro's name came up and Robert said, "He didn't run 5th Avenue." I made some remark if he showed up without training Jenny Simpson have beat him. Everyone else pointed out that was idiotic with only a month off for Centro and I agreed.

Then we debated how long Centro could go with no training and step on a track and beat Jenny. It probably is an issue of how quickly he puts on weight. One guy said a year. With no training could the Olympic champ run a 4:20 mile in a year? No way in my book but it depends on how active he was.

I am active, but I don't train and could probably gut out a 6-minute mile. With about 2 months of training, I could probably run close to a 5-minue mile. When I went through periods of no training, the best I could do was jog, which was about a 9-10-minute mile. If Centro sat around and did absolutely nothing for a year, he would not be able to run a 5-minute mile and even if he stayed active, he would not be a able to run a sub-4:30 mile. I have seen quite a few world class athletes come back from injury, eve after jogging and biking for couple weeks and they can barely run a 5 minute mile. The biggest problem is weight.

asdfasdfa wrote:

It will all depend on how much exercise you are giving him. I know that when I took 3 months off for an injury, there was no way I was running with in 30s of my mile PR the day I came back even with some biking. I wasn't fat (

Same thought.

As a freshman, I sustained a stress fracture right off the bat in September. I was on the bike/in the pool for 2 months @ min 90 minutes a day, then slowly started rotating in some easy runs/light workouts.

I did a 1500 TT after I'd done maybe 3 legit workouts. Ran ~4:50, PB was 4:37 in the summer before starting school (female). I was probably a little heavier (a few lbs), and the effort was obviously a bit less high quality as it was a TT. So I gained ~10-15s from 2 months of cross-training + 2 months of combined running/cross-training (probably 3-4 real, specific workouts).

Not sure that the extra bit of running helped or hurt... bit of a wash. Your mechanics feel off if you don't run for a long time, so probably the optimal way of running a fast 1500 after no specific training would be to do a few shakeout runs and strides. When I ran the TT, I was at the point where the workouts I had done hadn't sunk in yet, but they had made me tired.

Soprano wrote:

I, like Jon, also said he could still beat her after a year off, stipulating that he couldn't put on weight (so that means he has to stay generally fit even if he isn't running). You just have to consider 1) How insanely talented he is and 2) He only needs to run 30-seconds slower than his PR.

It's amazing how stupid some of my employees are. Anyone else want to work for us? There is zero chance he could run 4:20 after a year of no running.

I think if he did zero running for 2 months he'd lose which is what the VO2 max guy says. Now to Jon and Steve's credit, they haven't gotten to the point where they'd stopped running entirely and seen how terribly out of shape people get.

I once ran a marathon in 2:23. I'd be hard pressed to break 4 if you put a gun to my head. I don't think I could do it as i think my legs would give out.

The race I want to organize besides Simpson v Coburn at the steeple is Simpson v Jager at 1500. Jager steeples, Jenny runs flat. I guess Jager would win as he can almost run 4 minutes the whole way. So maybe we give Jenny a small head start.

Soprano wrote:

Jonathan Gault wrote:

I'm convinced he could still break 4:20 and beat Jenny Simpson a year later. Do you realize how talented you have to be to be the Olympic champion? Even among pro runners, he's an outlier.

I, like Jon, also said he could still beat her after a year off, stipulating that he couldn't put on weight (so that means he has to stay generally fit even if he isn't running). You just have to consider 1) How insanely talented he is and 2) He only needs to run 30-seconds slower than his PR.

How close do you think he could come to his PR right now? He ran 3:43 at the US champs, and finished last in his heat at the world champs in 3:48. I don't think he's even in shape to break 4 right now. So he'd only need to slow by 14 seconds. Actually, Simpson has run 3:57 for 1500, so maybe he'd only need to slow 9 seconds (from 3:48) to have a chance of getting beaten by her.

The workouts might not have helped much (you are likely to get some nerological adaptations benefits how that balances out with tiredness is hard to say) but 2 months of easy running is huge. Give centro 2 months of easy running and yeah he is running a 4:15 mile and will win easily.

chiming in wrote:

No weight gain = 6-12 months.

But if we let Centro lose on those Las Vegas buffets, all bets are off: Jenny in 6 weeks.

Bingo - let's say he does dancing with the stars and keeps trim with some light activity and good diet so he can fit in tux. He just gets to run once a month and that's a race/TT. I think he could keep running sub 4:16 for 6-12 months.

[quote]gdffdsdagsdf wrote:

I don't know about you guys, but the day after I've taken a long break I really run like crap.[quote]

no I disagree, guys always got one good day in them , it's the second day that you feel like crap

Centrowitz is a idiot too ...that would help because less of a jerk could just let it go ....Centro would have to win.

I say that with all due respect.

My brother ran 1:47 for 800m and completely stopped running. He probably ran a total of 10 miles in 18 months. He put on 10 lbs, but was active, but not running active. He played a little pickup basketball in the winters, MAYBE once a week for 3 months. I bet him 50 bucks he couldn't break 2 min for 800m anymore. That next week he ran a total of 5 miles with some strides. On an indoor 160m track in a local open race, he went through 400 in 60.... Came back in 57. F_k him.

All that training and physiological adaptions he has made aren't going away. My guess is that he beats her after 2 years.

Haha, men are faster than women, so funny, haha.

A sports journalist named Phil Gifford.

sandybeaver wrote:

Subway Surfers Addiction wrote:

Depends on what shape Jenny is in? Peak shape 3:57 or early season out of shape 4:05. Probably 6 months max. I heard a story of how Peter Snell got back in shape some 10-15 years after retiring, after a month or so of training he could run around 49s for 400m. Top guys probably never lose their talent.

I want to hear more about this. I've never heard anything like that from any print source or interviews, so I'm inclined to think you got your wires crossed somewhere. Got a source?

GFR wrote:

Jonathan Gault wrote:

And if that's the case, I'm convinced he could still break 4:20 and beat Jenny Simpson a year later. Do you realize how talented you have to be to be the Olympic champion? Even among pro runners, he's an outlier.

I would say Ryan Hall was an outlier as well. How long did it take him to go from a 2:15 runner at the end of his career to a guy that could barely break 3 with a lot of weight training? A year? How much running did he do in that period?

Of course a marathon is different from a mile, but as others have suggested it depends on how much weight Centro put on.

Nick Symmonds has been training to run a marathon and couldn't hold 3:20 km pace for an 8 x 1k session in a recent youtube video. Shows how much you lose when you stop training at a high level.