How far could Kipchoge run sub 6 minutes per mile pace?

Based on my advanced analytics, since he was 25 seconds over the 2 hour barrier, he could run a 6 minute mile for 75 miles. (6x25)/2=75 miles.

Definitely could go sub-6 for over 100km., based on how I converted in my mid 30s.

5:39 pace for marathon

6:52 pace for 50 mile (121.5% of marathon pace)

7:06 pace for 100km (125.7% of marathon pace)

Trained 120-140 miles per week to do so. He certainly could do more than that.

If Kipchoge converted similarly, even just using his official marathon PR of 2:03:05 (about 4:42 pace), his 100km would be about 5:54 pace.

Beyond 100km, energy management takes on a much greater significance, so a lot would depend on how well he could eat and process calories.

shohohe wrote:

Oh they do. What is the longest duration run Kipchoge does? 3 hours? 3.5 hours max? If he tries to run 100k WR pace, he will falter after 4-5 hours, because his body just is not used to running such a long time. I have no doubt he is physically superior to all but the best 100k runners, but he could not get close to the WR (within 10 minutes even) with 5 months notice.

Big deal, every marathon fun run there are thousands of fatties and never was runners running for way longer.

Some peopel with zero taletn run in excess of 6 hours, and you make it sound that the best in th eworld couldn't do it.

Fat ladies do it.

It basically comes down to how long his legs would work. 6 minute miles for Kipchoge, is like 8 min miles for the rest of letsrun. I think Kipchoge can run easy for a distance that far exceeds 100km. So with the right amount of nutrition and hydration (and training for that), Kipchoge would run really far at 6 minute pace

I think it is likely that the current 100 mile record holder, Oleg Kharitonov, was doping. Zach Bitter and his 11:40 American Record for the 100 mile distance on the track (7:01 pace) is likely the fastest clean time. I believe Zach's marathon PR is only 2:31 (5:45 pace). I think the best way to analyze the question is to look at results from Comrades Marathon (~56 miles). In 2016, David Gatebe ran a 5:18 (5:45 pace) to break Leonid Shvetsov very likely doped record. Gatebe's marathon PR is 2:14 (5:06 pace). Comrades is also a challenging course, so running on a track would likely be much faster. Anyways, I think there is a decent shot that Kipchoge could stay under 6 minutes per mile for 100 miles.

Analyticser wrote:

Based on my advanced analytics, since he was 25 seconds over the 2 hour barrier, he could run a 6 minute mile for 75 miles. (6x25)/2=75 miles.

This guy gets it. And the best: Tadesse ran 2:06. That's 360 seconds slower than 2 hours.

So actually Tadesse can go (6x360)/2 = 1080 miles at 6 minutes per mile.

It sounds strange. But: The slower you are in a marathon the better you have to fuel and the tougher you are. Because it is WAY harter toben for 4 hours than it is to run for 2 hours. So actually it isn't surprising that the best ultra guys are 6+ hour marathoners.

Think about it. The formular is highly scientific and exact. Calculo will tell you just the same.

Loser of LR wrote:

Analyticser wrote:

Based on my advanced analytics, since he was 25 seconds over the 2 hour barrier, he could run a 6 minute mile for 75 miles. (6x25)/2=75 miles.

This guy gets it. And the best: Tadesse ran 2:06. That's 360 seconds slower than 2 hours.

So actually Tadesse can go (6x360)/2 = 1080 miles at 6 minutes per mile.

It sounds strange. But: The slower you are in a marathon the better you have to fuel and the tougher you are. Because it is WAY harter toben for 4 hours than it is to run for 2 hours. So actually it isn't surprising that the best ultra guys are 6+ hour marathoners.

Think about it. The formular is highly scientific and exact. Calculo will tell you just the same.

You jest but there is something to be said for actual time running. Many of my ultra friends do relatively low mileage but with lots of time on their feet. I've done 5k segments with higher total volume but something like 1/3 of their "run" time, and they put up extremely good results.

I don't think it's any stretch of the imagination to think that Kipchoge could run around 100k under 6 minute pace because frankly he could run 5:30's and take a half hour break (or some variation). The real variable is when he would start to tighten up, because I doubt he ever runs more than 2 hours in training and 100k @ 6 is just over 6 hours. Unless he did some specific training he would likely start to struggle by 4 hours, but if he started doing 4/5 hour long runs at a slow pace he would have a good chance of breaking existing records. Normally I would say a guy like that could destroy existing ultra records (I subscribe to the LRC consensus that ultra lacks talent), but he has such fast shorter distance times that I really don't even know what he's built for.

hey joecrunner. you a bon3r

wrestler?

50 miles at 5:06 pace would be incredible. That's essentially like running two consecutive marathons in 2:12.

On a track, I think he'd have a shot at going 100 miles. The American record for 100 miles is about 7 pace, set by someone with a 2:31 p.r. Kipchoge is over a minute per mile faster for the marathon. I think he would run 100 miles well over 1 minute faster than the American record holder. He has to be more efficient.

Forever. That's his easy jogging pace.

80 miles. I would lay down some serious money in a bet against those on here who think he could make 100 miles.

Conversion calculators, based on his 2 hour 25 second marathon time, predict he could run 100 miles in 8 hours and 18 minutes. That's under 5 minute pace.

I think Kipchoge could go over 100k as the current 100k record is about 6:00/mi.

Max King ran 100k at a pace of 6:14/mi on a road loop that wasn't even a fast course. so put Max on a monza track or something and he could probably average 6:10/mi. his marathon PR is 2:14, about 5:07/mi. give Eliud a year to prepare, or honestly even 6 months, and he could probably average marathon pace plus 65 seconds per mile, which would be about 5:45/mi.

I'll say he could run 70 miles at 6:00 pace which would beat the 100k(62mi) WR en route. 50 mi WR is 4:50:21 or 5:48/mi. So Eliud might crack that en route as well.

Old Ultra Guy wrote:

Where is Calculo when we need him?

i can't get lot of enthusiasm for this topic but if someone wants an answer...

i have no doubt Eliud is in current fantastic track shape, like paula who when in M training coud run 30-flat, etc

seeing london 10k with 1/2 dozen guys capable of 26'30 - 26'35 if flat out from gun & no nonsense 13'33/13'16 splits, i have no doubt Eliud wouda been right there in last lap

similarly, if you can run 26'30, the ole conversion to 5k used to be knock off 1'00 & halve it -> 12'45

i'd go with 12'45/26'30 as his current shape & that 26'30 is far, far from generous

so, it's essentially it's how far 12'45/26'30 can go before the average speed drops below 1609.344/(6 * 60) = 4.4704m/s

after a little trial'n'error as calculator not primarily built for this problem but easy to do by trying different distances until speed drops below 4.4704m/s

-> it took 18,000,000m or 18,000km or 11,184 miles in 46 days 15 hours before speed dropped below 4.4704m/s

basically, if he was an android with no breakdown, the distance is virtually infinite

in actuality the distance by which he woud drop below 6m/mile pace is only dictated by breakdown in body parts/metabolic collapse not by any pace problems

for an "android" "eliud" it is effectively an infinite distance...

The Soh twins did 120 kms at around 6.20 pace when training in NZ in 1983. They did this quite comfortably and could certainly have gone much further if they really wanted to.

My very unscientific guess would be based off a proportion of what the top male athletes run for a distance compared to the distance one half of the first.

My guess would come out to 9 hours for 100 miles which is 5:24 pace, could probably hold 6 pace for maybe 200 miles max.

I am being very generous, and of course this assumes training. I am sure my guess will be laughed at.

dfafadsf wrote:

I think well over 100 miles.

It does not work that way. He does not have the fat stores to get that far. He would drop out at 30ish miles. There is no equivalency running for 2 hours versus running for 10 hours. It is like comparing a sprinter to an 800m runner—a 100m dude should be able to hold 13 seconds per 100m for at least 800m … easy as can be.

After watching Kipchoge in Berlin yesterday, where he averaged 4:38 per mile, I took this a step further and was wondering how far he could run at 5 minutes per mile, or 22 seconds per mile inside his marathon pace comfort zone.