How old are you?
How old are you?
23
I'd go for sub 3:05. It is a big PR, a challenging goal, and you have a big window of time left to get that sub 3:00. If you'd been able to dedicate a bit more time to overall volume and longer long runs, I would be more aggressive.
I wouldn't rule out a sub 3:00 for you, I am just saying what I would do in your situation.
isn't one of the key points - what pacers will be available at what goals?
will there even be sub3 pacers?
if not, go with the 3:00 pacer, see how you feel at mile 22-23
if good, push past them then
if hanging on, stay with them
the key to a marathon PR is most likely even pacing and not going out too hard
23 is very young for marathon distance, you'll get plenty of chances even if this is a learning lesson, at least a decade at peak performance
My PRs when I went sub 3 were 37:59 for 10k and 1:23:57 for the half. While there is no "key" workout, I felt I was ready when 3 weeks out I did 10 Easy + 10 MP without straining and while feeling (somewhat) fresh at the end. That run ended up being 20 mi in 2:27 @ 7:22 avg, so taxing but not crazy, and the last 10 ended up being what I ran in the race spot on.
2 weeks out I did 10 E + 5 MP
1 week out I did 5 E + 5 MP
These were my only "real" workouts in addition to the occasional 3 x 10 min at tempo pace (or similar combinations) at around 6:15 pace.
I would say comfort at MP is the best indicator, especially if you train glycogen deprived (high mileage, no food intake during run) and then taper properly + fuel during the race (do practice a couple times before!). That felt like unlimited energy levels during the race.
PS. I wear a HRM and "knew" by experience that targeting a HR of approximately 155-160 was the range when MP lies for me. They key during the race is to not go much over that, ever (eg > 165) to avoid depleting sugar levels too quick / being anaerobic too much. Marathon pace should feel somewhat easy for a gooooood while, unless you're a pro or run very high mileage.
Just my 2 cents. Good luck! Impossible to predict, and I hope you got out of the flu and back at 100%. that sucker is vile.
agree mostly with this post. It will definitely take some out of you though, especially if you are pretty fatigued. I've done this 3 weeks out the last 2 marathons I've runs and hit my goal pace exactly in the race (and HM time trial) The trick is to NEVER get into a scenario where you are racing/or pushing hard to maintain pace. As soon as that happens shut it down. Even if you get 8-10 miles in its a great wrktI've always done it like this:4-5 mile warm-up13 miles @ goal MP4-5 cool-downTOTAL = 22 milesanother classic is 10 easy, 10 at GMPOP - you are on the verge of being too late to do workouts like these for your race though, so I would just do a long run for about the duration of your goal time. aka - go run for 2 hours and 45-55 minutes easy, see if you can get to 21-22 miles *You'll certainly know at mile 23 or so of the race if you under-prepared
My advice would be to run conservatively based on feel. Chasing a time in the marathon is playing with fire, especially when you don't have recent races or training runs indicating that time. In your situation I would just focus on being very comfortable and able to carry on a conversation through mile 15 or so. At that point depending on the course you can start thinking about upping the tempo a notch.
There will be pacers for 2:59 and 3:15. Feel pretty confident that I could stay on sub 3 pace at least 30k, but after that it's anyone's guess and would really suck to blow up.
Definitely too late for another fast long run, as I posted above yesterday I did 33k averaging 4:30 (sub 3 is 4:15).
Might do 15k on Friday at mp instead of my usual tempo as I don't think that will be too taxing.
Also was thinking about my taper, have been running around 80-90k/week and was thinking of doing like 60k this week and 30-40 next week when the race is but keeping some of the intensity, sound reasonable?
38 is about the equivalent of a 3 hour marathon. How long ago did you run that? If it was many weeks ago, you might be in considerably better shape now.
Unlike others here, I think your long runs are adequate. What worries me is that your total mileage is a bit low to extend your 38 to 3.
Regardless, I think as a matter strictly of fitness you're in the ballpark. My advice, given the pacers er pacing pace is this: If the weather is good - cool, low humidity not too windy, then go with the 3 hour pacer. You might blow up, but, my feeling is that you won't until after 20 miles (when you might do so no matter what, welcome to the marathon). So why not take a chance?
If it is hot or humid, then run with the 3:15 group. Yes, this is likely to be too slow given your fitness, but, if you're feeling good at 17 or whatever, you can pick it up and still run 3:10, which, as you say, is still a big PR.
My concern with shooting for something in between, say a 3:05 is that, given your relative inexperience etc, you are very unlikely to get the pace that exact - the difference between 3 and 3:05 is only about 10s/mile. It's better to have someone who is running right on the nose to work off of.
Sub3 hopeful wrote:
Definitely too late for another fast long run, as I posted above yesterday I did 33k averaging 4:30 (sub 3 is 4:15).
Might do 15k on Friday at mp instead of my usual tempo as I don't think that will be too taxing.
Also was thinking about my taper, have been running around 80-90k/week and was thinking of doing like 60k this week and 30-40 next week when the race is but keeping some of the intensity, sound reasonable?
The 38 was a month ago, but haven't gained any fitness to mention because of the flu. Could probably dip a few seconds under that now on the same course.
I know mileage is on the lower end which will hurt.
We've had a heat wave the past week so hoping the weather turns around a bit. Starting at noon and it was 25 degrees Celsius yesterday.
I understand that pacing is tough, but likely won't run with 3:15 pacers either way. Even though that is a big pr I feel I am faster than that and don't want to underperform. Think that I will use a split time bracelet if I don't run with pacers to try to at least get reasonably even splits.
I predict a 3:11.45.
I've tried running with pacers a couple times. They always start out too fast and slow down towards the end because they're more worried about hitting goal time perfectly in the end and they have the fitness to bank time rather than the people being paced who need even splits to run most efficiently. You have to be really disciplined on your own or find others around you to work together, but if both pacers are 5-10 min off your goal time don't just join the group to be in a group.
Also disagree with the person that you might as well go out fast because you might hit the wall either way. Going out too fast is why many people bonk.
I am not good enough at judging others fitness to tell you what to shoot for, just wanted to give those thoughts.
you've really made the answer simple
go with the 2:59 pacer, see how you feel right at mile 22
if having a good day, push past them, maybe 15 seconds per mile faster
even if you have a surprise bonk at 25+ you can still recover with a slow mile and just break 3:00
that will give you a 2:58 and beat all the other 2:59-ers
you are only 23, once you get this experience down pat, you'll be able to push faster and eventually do 2:50 or even 2:45 someday, you've got a decade ahead of you of prime physical condition
Sub3 hopeful wrote:
The 38 was a month ago, but haven't gained any fitness to mention because of the flu. Could probably dip a few seconds under that now on the same course.
I know mileage is on the lower end which will hurt.
We've had a heat wave the past week so hoping the weather turns around a bit. Starting at noon and it was 25 degrees Celsius yesterday.
I understand that pacing is tough, but likely won't run with 3:15 pacers either way. Even though that is a big pr I feel I am faster than that and don't want to underperform. Think that I will use a split time bracelet if I don't run with pacers to try to at least get reasonably even splits.
Well, the good news in a way is that it has been warm, so your body will have adapted a little.
My concern about pacing is that you will not be able to feel the difference between 4:15 and 4:22 until it's too late. But maybe you can feel that difference. Will every km be marked?
Speaking of km's.... I first read your proposed Friday workout as 15 *miles* rather than 15 k, then inadvertently posted nothing after deleting my rant about how that would be a stupid workout. That's where my blank post came from. Anyway, I actually think 15k at MP on Friday is a good last workout. It's short enough that you should be able to recover but long enough that you'll get some information from it. Try to run it at 4:15 pace. If that doesn't feel too hard, then go for the sub 3.
David S. Pumpkins wrote:
I've read a lot about some sort of run...
You criticize my being 3 sec per mile off, yet you are giving advice that you have "read" a lot about. Classic. It's better to aim a bit slow for the first half than to go too fast. But, you probably have read about that too, right?
What's your 'thon PR, brah?
Sub3 hopeful wrote:
Think that I will use a split time bracelet if I don't run with pacers to try to at least get reasonably even splits.
If that's your plan you may want to check out one of them fancy GPS watches. I hear they are all the rage.
Uh.............nope. wrote:
David S. Pumpkins wrote:I've read a lot about some sort of run...
You criticize my being 3 sec per mile off, yet you are giving advice that you have "read" a lot about. Classic. It's better to aim a bit slow for the first half than to go too fast. But, you probably have read about that too, right?
What's your 'thon PR, brah?
If you would have said it's ok or good to aim a little slow in the first half than go out too fast, or said go out in 6:55 pace and hit half way at 1:30:37 then I wouldn't have said anything.
Since you didn't know math and you lacked the ability to pick up the fact that he was looking for an indicator workout not a magic fitness workout, I thought you might also be impressed by someone who reads. My point in that comment was saying that there seems to be a consensus among many experts that have studied large groups of runners and know enough to make a living off the subject. I trust those references more than condescending anonymous internet commenters with individual anecdotes because they could be making it all up and likely don't have the experience or expertise of a professional.
My marathon PR is 2:04:25. See? Condescending internet commenters can say whatever they want.
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