It happens.
See the mens 800m world record.
It happens.
See the mens 800m world record.
Evdawg wrote:
I'll reference the kiprop in monaco race here, Kiprop was way ahead of the field which included Makhloufi, Centro and Farah as well as many other olympians and he was 10 meters ahead by the end, no one drafted him and outkicked. I'm also quite confused on the argument that El G couldn't run that fast without pacers, they are certainly helpful but it seems extremely doubtful that he just couldn't run any race close to that time without pacers. I think it would be possible that he could pace himself enough to be able to run 3:27, even if that's not 3:26
It takes less energy to draft than to run in front. The rule of thumb is that it's about a 3% difference. So, no, I would not expect El G. could solo a 3:27. Maybe low 3:30s, but then a lot of guys can follow at that pace. He'd have been smoked in the last 200m if he tried that strategy.
About Kiprop in Monica, I don't recall the details of the race. How much of it did he actually lead? It's one thing to take over at halfway if paid pacemakers have ensured that the first half was honest, but it's another entirely to lead the whole thing.
Ok, I'm going to attempt to answer your question seriously. It's obvious you are a young runner without much experience and/or knowledge of the sport.
Yes, Kirop ran a 3:27 and beat Centro and others by a wide margin. What you are forgetting to mention is he had pacers for 3 laps. He knew exactly what pace they would attempt to run, and that they would drop out. His job was to stay close, and run one lap by himself.
Now, did the other not follow because they could not, or because maybe they thought it was a little too fast and he'd die? What if the first two laps were 1 or 2 seconds slower? Would they be right with him?
He also had nothing to risk. If he blew up and finished 5th, everyone would say he made a brave attempt. He could try again the next week, or the week after that. Or next year.
The olympics are once every 4 years. Everyone wants to win. Everyone knows it does not matter what time you run, just that you win (or place 2nd or 3rd). You don't want to risk blowing up and finishing 5th. (Plus, you think you can kick with anyone regardless of the pace).
So the Olympics come around, you can attempt to run 3:27 and assume no one else can, but maybe you have a 50% chance of not really being about to run 3:27. Or you attempt to outkick everyone which you are also very good at?
There are no rabbits at the olympics. If you are going to run 3:27, you need to do it on your own. Which do you choose.
I've never seen Kiprop run a fast race without rabbits, but I've seen him outkick in fast, moderate, or slow races.
There are some runners, especially in longer races who can go out and just run everyone else into the ground. Bekele was one such beast. He's a very rare talent. I can't think of any current runners who can go out and just blast Mo Farrah into submission all by themselves. I'm not even sure any could do it if they had help. At least at 5k.
It all comes down to this: there is a real difference between racing and running time trials. Almost all races these days are time trials. You have rabbits. You know the pace (more or less) ahead of time. You can plan your "race" based on how you want to adjust your split times.
Its a far different thing to run a race against other runners where place is far more important than pace, and there will be no one helping you with pace. If you want it faster, you have to do it, or hope someone else will. That's real racing. Unfortunately, or does not happen very often any more.
This bloke did it.
Another clip of the same race, with older Elliott commenting: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wd2ISNCxFoM
El G is the perfect example. He ran 3 olympic 1500 finals. Falling in 1996, finishing 2nd in 2000, and winning 2004.
He 2000 the pace was fast. He was in 2nd the first 2 laps. The leader, another Moroccan, who finished last. Clearly, he was pacing El G.
El G took over the lead with 700 to go and kept up the fast pace. He lead until the final straight away where he was out kicked. He was the dominant runner at the time, the race was run exactly to his plan. He was drafted and he lost to a lesser, but still great, runner.
In 2004, there was no pacer. Instead, the pace was a little slower at that start. El G took over with about 800 to go. He again, got passed in the final straight, but was able to fight back to win.
Two races, one where he had everything go according to plan except being beat, and another where he had to strategically want to enforce his will.
PT in Eugene wrote:
This bloke did it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pr0dWz_6oEI
But even he didn't take the lead until the 800m mark.
HRE wrote:
The most obvious answer here is that in high level competitions front runners almost never win.
Rudisha front-ran fast and won in 2012, front ran slow and won in 2015. Kiprop front ran slow and won 2013. Ayana front ran fast and won 2016. Off the top of my head recently. So there goes almost never.
The point that it's still not very often is moot when you consider most other positions rarely win either. People seem to think that if the leader wins less than half the time, and someone from the pack wins more than half the time, their chances are better in the pack. They forget they still have to be that 1 out of the 11 in the pack to win, instead of the 10 losers.
It would be easy though tedious to go through videos of all the major championships of the past 20 years and record everyone's race position at the halfway point and the finish. I would be surprised if the leader at halfway didn't end up winning more often than average.
Maybe drug testing is better at the Olympics than at WR attempt races.
The 800m is different. It starts in lanes and the bell lap begins soon after. Exclude the 800m and it almost never happens. Ayana is the exception. I can't think of another recent example of a distance runner (1500m and up) leading from the gun and winning an Olympic final. Maybe in the steeple? I think you have to go back to Zatopek or Nurmi to find a front runner who won an Olympic final at 1500, 5000 or 10000m from the front taking the lead before half way.
People need to stop with this BS about bekele being paced most of the way during his WRs. For his 10000 wr, the pacing ended at the halfway point. Not a whole lot of runners can go more than 5k at 10k WR pace.
Modern runners are afraid to run a hard third lap as Kip Keino did in the 1968 1500 final. However Kip had altitude behind him as a weapon as well. The world did not know much about altitude then.
In the future we may see some exciting changes in racing philosophy. Remember when Dave Wottle won the 800 in 1972. Basically ALL smart runners do it similar to that in the big races now.
There are some that can sprint long and some that can only hold a short kick. Perhaps some smart coach will figure out a way to train an athlete to always be able to kick that third lap hard and yet still hold on for a win at the Olympics.
Perhaps a team approach may get it done with one athlete going out hard and then the "second athlete," picking off the rest. Perhaps a very fast lap by that "first athlete?"
Regardless you have to believe that the world will figure out a different strategy to win. It might be miraculous.
You heard it here from Doubtful Pre Doubtful first.
They need to kind of peak to qualify in their home country, sometimes 4-6+ weeks before the olympicsthenthey run a lot of qualifying rounds at the Olympics too, which makes you tiredplus the pressure is immense, so it might not be worth the risk if they aren't feeling perfectdavid rudisha did it but he basically called his shot before the race, so he knew he was feeling amazing
Evdawg wrote:
While watching many different races in 1500m and over from the last decade or so in the olympics, I've noticed how many times people who have run incredibly fast times play into the hands of those like Centrowitz and Farah who rely on quick last laps. When talking about the 1500m, obviously in 2004 Hicham might not have been able to run the same WR speed as in 2000, but why couldn't he just run a 3:28-29 in 2000? He still probably could have ran similarly fast in 2004 though, just not quite. Why couldn't Bekele run a 12:40 in 2004 instead of getting outkicked by Hicham, a miler. Why didn't Kiprop run a 3:28-29 at the most recent olympics instead of letting Centrowitz lead the race? I understand the benefits of strategy and just trying to race but obviously for certain Eastern Africans and Hicham, it seems like it would just be a better strategy to go for as fast as possible when no one else can run that fast. This is especially dumbfounding when Kiprop ran the 3:27 at Monaco and beat the rest of the field including Farah (obviously he's not a 1500 runner but he's still fast), Makhloufi, and Centrowitz by a huge margin.
I think if you know for sure you are in world-record shape on that given day, you would do that, but the reality is that most world-record holders are not in world-record shape on that given day.
Leading at halfway is not the same as a world record holder running at his/her fastest possible pace. I cannot think of more than a handful of races where the winner ran away from the field right from the start. So unless you go through all those tedious videos and get some data I'll stick to "almost never."
Evdawg wrote:
While watching many different races in 1500m and over from the last decade or so in the olympics, I've noticed how many times people who have run incredibly fast times play into the hands of those like Centrowitz and Farah who rely on quick last laps. When talking about the 1500m, obviously in 2004 Hicham might not have been able to run the same WR speed as in 2000, but why couldn't he just run a 3:28-29 in 2000? He still probably could have ran similarly fast in 2004 though, just not quite. Why couldn't Bekele run a 12:40 in 2004 instead of getting outkicked by Hicham, a miler. Why didn't Kiprop run a 3:28-29 at the most recent olympics instead of letting Centrowitz lead the race? I understand the benefits of strategy and just trying to race but obviously for certain Eastern Africans and Hicham, it seems like it would just be a better strategy to go for as fast as possible when no one else can run that fast. This is especially dumbfounding when Kiprop ran the 3:27 at Monaco and beat the rest of the field including Farah (obviously he's not a 1500 runner but he's still fast), Makhloufi, and Centrowitz by a huge margin.
It's simple, it's a huge risk. If they go balls to the walls they risk a blow up (the longer the distance the greater the chance)
But I agree I would rather it be a race against the clock then a snooze fest for first bit of race then a kickers race.( Granted I'll never touch there times) But I want to see good old racing!
3hr-marathoner wrote:
Ayana is the exception. I can't think of another recent example of a distance runner (1500m and up) leading from the gun and winning an Olympic final. Maybe in the steeple? I think you have to go back to Zatopek or Nurmi to find a front runner who won an Olympic final at 1500, 5000 or 10000m from the front taking the lead before half way.
You can't get away with moving the goalposts that far. Recent olympics are a very small sample of as few as 12 races if you don't count steeple or 2008. World championships matter too. Besides, if front-running is a bad tactic, it should have been in the past. I just thought of recent examples because they came to mind first.
for some others, Ngugi 1988, Kipkoech 1987. Bekele 2004 broke the 10000 up before halfway, and though he didn't lead every ensuing lap, he did lead all the fast ones, helped only by Sihine who ended up 2nd.
That's another advantage of frontrunning, ensuring a medal even if it's not gold. Rogacheva went out in 60 in 1996, finishing in 3:57 for 2nd - a perfect tactic that would have been gold if Boulmerka hadn't had a 3:55 in her that day.
Xcguy0988 wrote:
It's simple, it's a huge risk. If they go balls to the walls they risk a blow up (the longer the distance the greater the chance)
But I agree I would rather it be a race against the clock then a snooze fest for first bit of race then a kickers race.( Granted I'll never touch there times) But I want to see good old racing!
I agree that it's a risk but I think like Bad Wigins said, there's an even larger risk with running further back. When you run with that strategy you better have the leg speed to be able to pull out the fastest kick out of the group. Centrowitz was able to win because of that 8x400 workout and specificity of training where he has a lot of speed and not as much aerobic ability to just run a super fast mile. Running as someone who has more aerobic ability in the 15, 5000, and 10000, it's more feasible to run a faster race and not have to rely on a crazy final lap split. An example outside of elite mens racing that I know of is the 2013 Girls Nike Cross Nationals where you had a distance focused runner (4:53 mile PR, ~10:06 2 mile) and two runners who were much better at the mile (4:39 & 4:33 I think). While Sarah Baxter (Distance one) tried to go out front and push it a little bit, because she didn't gain enough ground on the other two, they were easily able to outkick her, in fact Alexa Efraimson's kick was amazing. I think it's going to be a lot more difficult for someone like kiprop to have a fast enough kick at the Olympics, not just in a championship, where he can just sit back and kick a 51.
Almaz Ayana...
that fast w1500 was in 1992 actually, all the more impressive since EPO wasn't really a big thing just yet. Splits of 60, 2:05, 3:09 and a medal was assured.