What should my Half marathon pace be?

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According to McMillan and my experience, 1:22 sounds like a reasonable target for a person running a 29:05 on a 5-miler. Since we are going towards the summer, you will need to be prepared to adjust your target in case the conditions (heat, humidity) are suboptimal.

The race is on Sunday. Weather forecast is clear with low humidity and a low of 46 and a high of 64. The race is in the morning before it starts warming up. I'd expect it to be low 50s during race time. Probably couldn't ask for better conditions.

I know the charts say my goal is reasonable, that's pretty much how I landed on it. I just wasn't sure because having only run for a year with most of it at 30-40 miles, my aerobic system is probably not that well developed and I'd think my times would drop off as the distance increases. Similar how the charts say someone who runs a 39 minute 10k should be a able to I run a 3 hour marathon, even though it's not true for most people. On the other hand, I've only been running for a year and im still getting faster at a fast rate. I've been averaging about 1 vdot per month. I'd expect that my hard few weeks after the 8k have increased my fitness and I could probably beat 29:05.

I figured id go out at about 6:20 and pick it up after a few miles. That way if im wrong on my fitness level, I'll either negative split or positive split, but not by a bunch in either direction.

Jimmy21 wrote:

I figured id go out at about 6:20 and pick it up after a few miles. That way if im wrong on my fitness level, I'll either negative split or positive split, but not by a bunch in either direction.

I think that is wise. You don't want your first longer distance race (not sure what races you've run, but not at this distance) to turn into a death march.

I just wasn't sure if it was similar to the 39 minute 10k, 3 hour marathon example and the charts should be thrown out the window and 6:20 would be suicide pace.

I was confident until I started looking through old threads I found one where someone ran a low 16 5k and was aiming for 1:25 and people convinced him to aim for 1:22 or 1:23. Since i couldn't run a low 16, it got me questioning my goal

I am slower than you but I think being cautious is a good plan. You could even back off your target to 6:30 for the first couple of miles. You can easily make that up in the last 2 or 3 miles if you're feeling strong. I used to be a fly and die guy but having something in reserve that allows you to throw caution to the winds and JUST RUN the last couple of miles is a lot better feeling and I've had better results as well.

Charts are not very good predictors. You should think of them as "tables of equivalent performances." They are accurate if you are equally well trained for this distances.

You are probably not equally well trained for this distances, based on short timeframe of aerobic development. But I think you already know that and it is the basis for your question.

Neither are you extremely low mileage. I'd tell you to be more conservative if you were running 30 mpw. I also would not that I'd be a lot more conservative if you were going for a full marathon and not a 1/2 (full is a completely different race from a 1/2).

If you are nervous about that as a stretch goal, you could go out for the first few miles even a little slower (6:30s) and pick it up gradually. Depends on how important it is for you as a goal race. Going out slow preserves much of the upside of your race and prevents the really bad outcome. Frankly I would probably lean in that direction, but it is your race and you know your training and fitness better than anybody else does.

Good luck and please be sure to let us all know how it goes.

Jimmy, you are in probably the exact same shape as me in summer 2015. I ran 1:23 low although it was warm and humid (low 60s and 70-80% relative humidity) I say 6:20 pace is perfect and if you feel good pick it up the last 3-5 miles.

I've never raced a half before. At what point can you safely pick it up? I've done a few 10k's in the past (I've run before and in highschool but the last year the last year is the only significant portion towards my current fitness) and in a 10k, I feel like if you aren't struggling with "can I finish and not slow down but halfway, it's time to pick it up a little." On the other hand, I've heard plenty of times before that in the marathon, if you are comfortable at the halfway point and you pick it up, you will surely bonk.

The only thing I remember reading on the half was "the half isn't a slow race. By mile 5 you should feel that its insane to think you'll be able to hold this pace for another 8 miles"

I think an 8K is a reasonably good predictor of fitness for someone who's been doing your mileage and knows what HM training looks like. Don't undersell your own fitness, just be cautious and respect the distance. I'd aim for 6:25 for the first mile, 6:20 the second mile, and then let the pace come to you. The first 3-4 miles of subtempo running when you're tapered will feel absurdly easy. But don't get overconfident. Be disciplined about your pace and stay in the 6:12-6:15 range through 7 miles, and keep it at 6:10 through mile 10. Then see what you have left for your last 5K.

I'll tell you how my PR race went for how to pace. First 5k felt like I was jogging and was slower than average pace. . Next 10k were bang on average pace and felt like I was working but breathing was controlled and I felt in control. Last 5k I was flat out, breathing became very labored and I wanted to die the last 2 miles. Last 5k+ was fastest 5k segment of the race and I believe I ran my fastest mile during this segment as well.

It's a fine line with pacing. You should definitely start to question yourself at 5 miles and you should really start to question yourself at 10 miles but let your breathing guide you. It's your fist half so everything will be new territory. If anything it will be a good learning experience for future races. Good luck and have "fun."

Jimmy21 wrote:

I just wasn't sure if it was similar to the 39 minute 10k, 3 hour marathon example and the charts should be thrown out the window and 6:20 would be suicide pace.

I was confident until I started looking through old threads I found one where someone ran a low 16 5k and was aiming for 1:25 and people convinced him to aim for 1:22 or 1:23. Since i couldn't run a low 16, it got me questioning my goal

When I ran 1:23 I wasn't anywhere close to low 16 5k. I did run 15+ miles a decent amount of times though

Jimmy21 wrote:

I've never raced a half before. At what point can you safely pick it up? I've done a few 10k's in the past (I've run before and in highschool but the last year the last year is the only significant portion towards my current fitness) and in a 10k, I feel like if you aren't struggling with "can I finish and not slow down but halfway, it's time to pick it up a little." On the other hand, I've heard plenty of times before that in the marathon, if you are comfortable at the halfway point and you pick it up, you will surely bonk.

The only thing I remember reading on the half was "the half isn't a slow race. By mile 5 you should feel that its insane to think you'll be able to hold this pace for another 8 miles"

Beware the "half marathon wall" (its for people who went way too fast and death marching it in) usually around mile 9/10 is when you should start feeling like it's a hard pace to hold. At the mile 10 i just keep telling myself to think of it as a 5k and start counting off the last 5 kilometers. If you feel amazing at mile 10 congrats, but you likely went a little too conservative. The last 5k i usually find the hardest to get through, i some how always manage to keep my pace through it. Good luck to you. Let us know how you did.

Jimmy21 wrote:

I just wasn't sure if it was similar to the 39 minute 10k, 3 hour marathon example and the charts should be thrown out the window and 6:20 would be suicide pace.

I was confident until I started looking through old threads I found one where someone ran a low 16 5k and was aiming for 1:25 and people convinced him to aim for 1:22 or 1:23. Since i couldn't run a low 16, it got me questioning my goal

I ran a 1:23 at age 41. I wasn't close to sub 16 or even sub 17. My best was 18:02 the same year and a 38:20 10k.

I think you will do just fine. My avg mileage was around 45-50.

Fjfhfbfbbfbh wrote:

Jimmy21 wrote:

I just wasn't sure if it was similar to the 39 minute 10k, 3 hour marathon example and the charts should be thrown out the window and 6:20 would be suicide pace.

I was confident until I started looking through old threads I found one where someone ran a low 16 5k and was aiming for 1:25 and people convinced him to aim for 1:22 or 1:23. Since i couldn't run a low 16, it got me questioning my goal

I ran a 1:23 at age 41. I wasn't close to sub 16 or even sub 17. My best was 18:02 the same year and a 38:20 10k.

I think you will do just fine. My avg mileage was around 45-50.

That gives me confidence. I haven't run a 5k but I'd imagine id be at least 17:30. My watch said the fastest 5k of my 8k was 18:00. Im pretty convinced I could run just under 6 minute miles for a 10k (37:30)

My first half was 1:19:XX off of 800m training. I might have been doing 30-35 miles per week with most of that in intervals. Long run of maybe 9-10 miles. 5K might have been 17:45ish.

Last spring I ran about 1:25 halfway thru my full marathon very comfortably off of 40-50ish miles per week (I later crashed and burned but that was something else). 5K was about 17:00-17:30.

I would say go for the 1:22. Put yourself into a good position, but don't go out too fast.

This also sounds similar to my story regarding weekly mileage, pacing, experience. At 38 yrs old, 18-month newbie to running, was basically in shape to do high 18s 5Ks. So, I trained for a sub 1:30 Half - basically just a bit under 7 minute avg pace... Looking back, I was training harder and was in better shape, but I had no confidence in my ability, so I kept my goal low.

I had never run more than a 10K race and didn't know what to expect. I ended up running 1:23 flat and was holding back until mile 10+ waiting for the wall, which never came, so I finally sped up at the end. Also I ran a 37:30 10k 2 months later - which also was a pleasant surprise, but I think ultimately worked out pretty well with predictor charts based on the 13.1 time.

As long as your are upping your mileage appropriately to train for the Half, I'd say you are on track for your goal time of 1:22. The main recommendation would be to hit the time corresponding to a pace of 6:25 at Mile 8 or so. By then you should know if you feel good, and if so, increase the pace by 10-15 seconds per mile. And if the 6:25 pace has been a struggle, then just cruise in the best you can, and the sub 1:22 wasn't meant to be, but you'll know what to expect for the next one!

i mean, that deffinitely gives me confidence that im not crazy and i won't be going for suicide pace. But how do you plan for 1:30 and run 1:23:00. You must have abandoned your 6:50 pace almost immediately

Yes, I did have a gut feel that I could break 1:30. But honestly I didn't want to admit it to anyone because I had no idea what to expect after the half way point because it was unproven to me. My race started with an uphill 7 minute mile, and the rest getting a lot faster and feeling comfortable. So yeah, I did transition into < 6:20 pace pretty soon after the first mile and decided to keep it going as long as I could. Which turned out to be for the whole race. Good luck, dude!