• LetsRun.com
      your benevolent dictator
      • With even pacing, John Kellogg thinks Mary Keitany could have run 2:15 and change today 4/23/2017 11:24AM
      • LetsRun.com
        your benevolent dictator
      • After this morning's amazing run by Mary Keitany, we called up LetsRun.com coaching/stat guru John Kellogg and asked him what he thought Keitany could have run if she had run more even splits.

        Mr. Kellogg qualified his remarks by saying he didn't get up at 4:15 am to watch the race so he was assuming there was nothing dramatic that changed with the weather mid-race (we believe that is correct), but then said he thought she could have run under 2:16.

        "My guess is it would be a 2:15 something with even pacing...(It looks like she simply) started off at 2:11 for the first 5000 and then it looks like it was just a classic slowdown after that."
    • the German inquisition
      • RE: With even pacing, John Kellogg thinks Mary Keitany could have run 2:15 and change today 4/23/2017 12:01PM - in reply to LetsRun.com
      • the German inquisition
      • That sounds like an earth shattering statement. Very bold proclamation.
    • habby4jogger
      • RE: With even pacing, John Kellogg thinks Mary Keitany could have run 2:15 and change today 4/23/2017 12:45PM - in reply to the German inquisition
      • habby4jogger
      • This morning I learned that it is difficult to predict what she can do. That race was shocking.
    • George213
      • RE: With even pacing, John Kellogg thinks Mary Keitany could have run 2:15 and change today 4/23/2017 12:52PM - in reply to LetsRun.com
      • George213
      • I actually suspect it is the best pacing strategy for the marathon, as opposed to the traditional negative split.
        Kinda like how you run a 800 - go out fast and hold on to it - this way you can really give it all.
    • ukathleticcoach
      • RE: With even pacing, John Kellogg thinks Mary Keitany could have run 2:15 and change today 4/23/2017 1:02PM - in reply to LetsRun.com
      • ukathleticcoach
      • Agree. Start of London always fast but off that crazy pacing I thought she'd blow up and run more like 2:20
    • Energized Naturally
    • habby4jogger
      • RE: With even pacing, John Kellogg thinks Mary Keitany could have run 2:15 and change today 4/23/2017 1:08PM - in reply to Energized Naturally
      • habby4jogger
      • There was a long thread about the London Marathon, but it seems to be currently broken (which breaks the link on London results recap)?
    • Old Ass Head
      • RE: With even pacing, John Kellogg thinks Mary Keitany could have run 2:15 and change today 4/23/2017 1:27PM - in reply to LetsRun.com
      • Old Ass Head
      • LetsRun.com wrote:
        After this morning's amazing run by Mary Keitany, we called up LetsRun.com coaching/stat guru John Kellogg and asked him what he thought Keitany could have run if she had run more even splits.

        Mr. Kellogg qualified his remarks by saying he didn't get up at 4:15 am to watch the race so he was assuming there was nothing dramatic that changed with the weather mid-race (we believe that is correct), but then said he thought she could have run under 2:16.

        "My guess is it would be a 2:15 something with even pacing...(It looks like she simply) started off at 2:11 for the first 5000 and then it looks like it was just a classic slowdown after that."
        Cool beans.
    • Savant
      • RE: With even pacing, John Kellogg thinks Mary Keitany could have run 2:15 and change today 4/23/2017 1:29PM - in reply to LetsRun.com
      • Savant
      • Kellogg is really going out on a limb on that one. What's next, a prediction the Sun will come up in the East tomorrow?
    • Gwalkerruns
      • RE: With even pacing, John Kellogg thinks Mary Keitany could have run 2:15 and change today 4/23/2017 4:40PM - in reply to LetsRun.com
      • Gwalkerruns
      • Is this the same Mr. Kellogg who said the warm weather at Boston would slow the runners about 30 seconds? 1 second per mile? That is flat out wrong.
    • maybe this
      • RE: With even pacing, John Kellogg thinks Mary Keitany could have run 2:15 and change today 4/23/2017 5:00PM - in reply to LetsRun.com
      • maybe this
      • Just out of curiosity I'd love to see what the Trackbot optimization tool says.
    • Feeling lazy
      • RE: With even pacing, John Kellogg thinks Mary Keitany could have run 2:15 and change today 4/23/2017 5:27PM - in reply to maybe this
      • Feeling lazy
      • maybe this wrote:
        Just out of curiosity I'd love to see what the Trackbot optimization tool says.
        Agreed. However I am too lazy to do it.
    • maybe this
      • RE: With even pacing, John Kellogg thinks Mary Keitany could have run 2:15 and change today 4/23/2017 5:30PM - in reply to Feeling lazy
      • maybe this
      • Feeling lazy wrote:
        maybe this wrote:
        Just out of curiosity I'd love to see what the Trackbot optimization tool says.
        Agreed. However I am too lazy to do it.
        Yeah, me too. Maybe tomorrow at work I'll do it.
    • stats.gangsta_the_real_1
      • RE: With even pacing, John Kellogg thinks Mary Keitany could have run 2:15 and change today 4/23/2017 5:33PM - in reply to maybe this
      • stats.gangsta_the_real_1
      • maybe this wrote:
        Just out of curiosity I'd love to see what the Trackbot optimization tool says.
        That's the stats gangsta optimization tool that Trackbot uses.

        If I saw the half marathon splits correctly, they were 66 and 71 (3960 and 4260 seconds). Putting that in the optimizer results in 2:15:04 for an even paced marathon. If you put the 5k splits in instead, it will show that she could have run 2:14 or maybe even 2:13!

        http://timescalculator.appspot.com/optimizer
    • asdfdgjdfgrg
      • RE: With even pacing, John Kellogg thinks Mary Keitany could have run 2:15 and change today 4/23/2017 5:34PM - in reply to maybe this
      • asdfdgjdfgrg
      • Keitany definitely didn't run the 26th mile in 4:53 as the race recap claims. Her pace from 40k to finish was around 5:25. Looks like the 26th mile marker was misplaced.
    • maybe this
      • RE: With even pacing, John Kellogg thinks Mary Keitany could have run 2:15 and change today 4/23/2017 5:36PM - in reply to stats.gangsta_the_real_1
      • maybe this
      • stats.gangsta_the_real_1 wrote:
        [quote]maybe this wrote:
        Just out of curiosity I'd love to see what the Trackbot optimization tool says.
        That's the stats gangsta optimization tool that Trackbot uses.

        If I saw the half marathon splits correctly, they were 66 and 71 (3960 and 4260 seconds). Putting that in the optimizer results in 2:15:04 for an even paced marathon. If you put the 5k splits in instead, it will show that she could have run 2:14 or maybe even 2:13!

        http://timescalculator.appspot.com/optimizer[/qoute]

        Awesome tool.
    • Subway Surfers Addiction
      • RE: With even pacing, John Kellogg thinks Mary Keitany could have run 2:15 and change today 4/23/2017 5:53PM - in reply to LetsRun.com
      • Subway Surfers Addiction
      • Paula's WR of 2:15 might be approachable with male pacemaking. But great athletes always do a statement performance after being left off the Olympic team, Komen 1996, Bekele in Berlin 2016, Keitany hours ago. There is a long list. Her next performance will be slower I bet.
    • NOP Skeptic
      • RE: With even pacing, John Kellogg thinks Mary Keitany could have run 2:15 and change today 4/23/2017 7:20PM - in reply to George213
      • NOP Skeptic
      • George213 wrote:
        I actually suspect it is the best pacing strategy for the marathon, as opposed to the traditional negative split.
        Kinda like how you run a 800 - go out fast and hold on to it - this way you can really give it all.
        Kinda like how you idiotically compared the 800m to the marathon?
    • Steve Jones
      • RE: With even pacing, John Kellogg thinks Mary Keitany could have run 2:15 and change today 4/23/2017 7:22PM - in reply to NOP Skeptic
      • Steve Jones
      • NOP Skeptic wrote:
        George213 wrote:
        I actually suspect it is the best pacing strategy for the marathon, as opposed to the traditional negative split.
        Kinda like how you run a 800 - go out fast and hold on to it - this way you can really give it all.
        Kinda like how you idiotically compared the 800m to the marathon?
        Wot?
    • i wasnt there
      • RE: With even pacing, John Kellogg thinks Mary Keitany could have run 2:15 and change today 4/23/2017 9:05PM - in reply to asdfdgjdfgrg
      • i wasnt there
      • asdfdgjdfgrg wrote:
        Keitany definitely didn't run the 26th mile in 4:53 as the race recap claims. Her pace from 40k to finish was around 5:25. Looks like the 26th mile marker was misplaced.
        Yeah, something was off with that last mile split. If you watch the video again, about 30 seconds after they posted that 4:53 split for mile 26, she crossed the point in the race that said 385 yards to go which is where the mile 26 split should've been. Something was off.