After this morning's amazing run by Mary Keitany, we called up LetsRun.com coaching/stat guru John Kellogg and asked him what he thought Keitany could have run if she had run more even splits.
Mr. Kellogg qualified his remarks by saying he didn't get up at 4:15 am to watch the race so he was assuming there was nothing dramatic that changed with the weather mid-race (we believe that is correct), but then said he thought she could have run under 2:16.
"My guess is it would be a 2:15 something with even pacing...(It looks like she simply) started off at 2:11 for the first 5000 and then it looks like it was just a classic slowdown after that."
With even pacing, John Kellogg thinks Mary Keitany could have run 2:15 and change today
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That sounds like an earth shattering statement. Very bold proclamation.
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This morning I learned that it is difficult to predict what she can do. That race was shocking.
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I actually suspect it is the best pacing strategy for the marathon, as opposed to the traditional negative split.
Kinda like how you run a 800 - go out fast and hold on to it - this way you can really give it all. -
Agree. Start of London always fast but off that crazy pacing I thought she'd blow up and run more like 2:20
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2:15:46
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There was a long thread about the London Marathon, but it seems to be currently broken (which breaks the link on London results recap)?
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LetsRun.com wrote:
After this morning's amazing run by Mary Keitany, we called up LetsRun.com coaching/stat guru John Kellogg and asked him what he thought Keitany could have run if she had run more even splits.
Mr. Kellogg qualified his remarks by saying he didn't get up at 4:15 am to watch the race so he was assuming there was nothing dramatic that changed with the weather mid-race (we believe that is correct), but then said he thought she could have run under 2:16.
"My guess is it would be a 2:15 something with even pacing...(It looks like she simply) started off at 2:11 for the first 5000 and then it looks like it was just a classic slowdown after that."
Cool beans. -
Kellogg is really going out on a limb on that one. What's next, a prediction the Sun will come up in the East tomorrow?
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Is this the same Mr. Kellogg who said the warm weather at Boston would slow the runners about 30 seconds? 1 second per mile? That is flat out wrong.
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Just out of curiosity I'd love to see what the Trackbot optimization tool says.
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maybe this wrote:
Just out of curiosity I'd love to see what the Trackbot optimization tool says.
Agreed. However I am too lazy to do it. -
Feeling lazy wrote:
maybe this wrote:
Just out of curiosity I'd love to see what the Trackbot optimization tool says.
Agreed. However I am too lazy to do it.
Yeah, me too. Maybe tomorrow at work I'll do it. -
maybe this wrote:
Just out of curiosity I'd love to see what the Trackbot optimization tool says.
That's the stats gangsta optimization tool that Trackbot uses.
If I saw the half marathon splits correctly, they were 66 and 71 (3960 and 4260 seconds). Putting that in the optimizer results in 2:15:04 for an even paced marathon. If you put the 5k splits in instead, it will show that she could have run 2:14 or maybe even 2:13!
http://timescalculator.appspot.com/optimizer -
Keitany definitely didn't run the 26th mile in 4:53 as the race recap claims. Her pace from 40k to finish was around 5:25. Looks like the 26th mile marker was misplaced.
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stats.gangsta_the_real_1 wrote:
[quote]maybe this wrote:
Just out of curiosity I'd love to see what the Trackbot optimization tool says.
That's the stats gangsta optimization tool that Trackbot uses.
If I saw the half marathon splits correctly, they were 66 and 71 (3960 and 4260 seconds). Putting that in the optimizer results in 2:15:04 for an even paced marathon. If you put the 5k splits in instead, it will show that she could have run 2:14 or maybe even 2:13!
http://timescalculator.appspot.com/optimizer[/qoute]
Awesome tool. -
Paula's WR of 2:15 might be approachable with male pacemaking. But great athletes always do a statement performance after being left off the Olympic team, Komen 1996, Bekele in Berlin 2016, Keitany hours ago. There is a long list. Her next performance will be slower I bet.
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George213 wrote:
I actually suspect it is the best pacing strategy for the marathon, as opposed to the traditional negative split.
Kinda like how you run a 800 - go out fast and hold on to it - this way you can really give it all.
Kinda like how you idiotically compared the 800m to the marathon? -
NOP Skeptic wrote:
George213 wrote:
I actually suspect it is the best pacing strategy for the marathon, as opposed to the traditional negative split.
Kinda like how you run a 800 - go out fast and hold on to it - this way you can really give it all.
Kinda like how you idiotically compared the 800m to the marathon?
Wot? -
asdfdgjdfgrg wrote:
Keitany definitely didn't run the 26th mile in 4:53 as the race recap claims. Her pace from 40k to finish was around 5:25. Looks like the 26th mile marker was misplaced.
Yeah, something was off with that last mile split. If you watch the video again, about 30 seconds after they posted that 4:53 split for mile 26, she crossed the point in the race that said 385 yards to go which is where the mile 26 split should've been. Something was off.
