Another day, another explosion:
Another day, another explosion:
In the summer of 2018, Tesla initiated a massive undertaking called "Project Titan",
– a stealth replacement of solar-panel parts across the United States.
https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-project-titan-replace-bad-solar-panel-parts-2019-8
GE.
Tesla installed a Supercharger station, powered by a diesel generator at Nürburgring motorsports complex A large shipping container from the US arrived at the track on Monday. Tesla employees spent the day unpacking the Supercharger and a large diesel generator that has since powered the Model S, The German magazine said the noisy generator is running 24/7, which has made the neighbors of the racetrack very angry. The diesel generator is expected to be operational through the end of September.
A Tesla charging map of Nürburg reveals a charging station is located about a quarter-mile away in town. But it appears the charging station isn't a Supercharger and would take too long to charge the Model S. So it makes sense, on a logistical basis, why Tesla brought a mobile diesel generator, considering the town nor racetrack have Supercharger stations.
Tesla last year started splitting data into standard and premium tiers, but it's now hinting that it might watch how much data you're using, too.
https://news.yahoo.com/2019-09-25-tesla-starts-tracking-data-use.html
Well known Tesla analyst and skeptic, Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research says in his latest note that Tesla's Q3 aggregated cars sold should fall 38.6% on a sequential basis, a result he simply refers to as "bad". Using data from the China Passenger Car Association and the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, Johnson concludes: ...a total of 1,062/1,736 TSLA M3/total-TSLA-cars, respectively, registered in July 2019, and 1,500/2,500 TSLA M3/total-TSLA-cars, respectively, registered in Aug. 2019. Thusly, assuming ~2.7K total TSLA cars registered in Sep. 2019, one arrives at 6.95K TSLA cars registered in China in 3Q19. He continues, explaining that this would "represent growth of -38.6% q/q." He says that the publicly available data rebuts those who believe that China sales will be "strong" for Q3.
Taking the above analysis a bit further, using CPCA, CAAM, and Importers Organisation data dating back to 1/1/13, it becomes clear that while TSLA’s current share of the Chinese BEV market is just 3.1% (this figure got as high as 17.6% 6/14), it has consistently average around 3% since 2017, despite the introduction of the “mass-market” Model 3.
Why is this the case, in our view? Well, when considering BAIC controlled ~21% of the Chinese BEV market in Aug. 2019, and currently prices its best-selling Senova D50 sedan at around $20K, it seems TSLA may remain hard-pressed to sell its ~$46.336K M3 cars broadly in China (i.e., TSLA’s entry level price for the M3 in China).
Furthermore, when considering, according to CPCA, CAAM, and the Importers Organisation, TSLA has sold an avg. of just 2,407 M3 cars/month since launching in China Mar. 2019 (with Aug. sales [i.e., second month of 3Q19] of M3 cars of 1.5K -28.1% below the 2.1K cars sold in May [i.e., second month of 2Q19]), vs. its plan to produce ~12.5K M3 cars/month when “Gigafactory 3” ramps in Shanghai at the end of 2019, it would seem that the fixed cost absorption for TSLA in China will be, for lack of a better word, massive (meaning they will lose a lot of money making cars for which there is no demand – our opinion).
In short, in our opinion, TSLA’s foray into the Chinese BEV market is shaping up as a disaster of herculean proportions as planned production appears to be an order of magnitude ahead of demand. We would strongly suggest our readers take some time to understand this dynamic as, based on what we’re seeing in the media, it seems many of the TSLA pundits, both on the sell-side and the media, are currently unaware of this.
We expect, as a result of these reports, that investors' focus may now have mostly shifted to gross margins and cash flow leading into 3Q earnings. We are modeling 17.7% Auto gross margins on an ex-ZEV credit basis (50bps improvement from Q2) vs. Cons of 18.5%. We believe there will likely be some positive contribution to gross margin from software updates. Last quarter, they had a positive working cap impact as they sold more cars than they produced; we expect this to reverse this quarter and we model ~$600mm in cash burn.
We believe the debate is less a question of price point, but rather the segments which Tesla currently addresses in the US market. We believe that the S is old, the X is overly engineered and needs to be rethought, and the 3 may be trapped in a narrow sedan segment.
Tesla management has targeted a long term auto gross margin of 25% in a steady state (incl. reg/non-reg. ZEV credits), but we left 2Q with the feeling that there was an increased dependence on FSD and regulatory credits to bridge the gap between the 18.9% (incl. reg/non-reg. ZEV credits) gross margin they reported. While we have no gauge on what the current take rates are on FSD (we estimate they are in the 30% range); we don't currently see scope for these to meaningfully improve over time.
We view pooling as a temporary solution to a permanent problem facing OEMs in Europe, and believe that ZEV credit revenue will struggle to remain a recurring source of revenue for Tesla over a multi-year scope.
We expect China to account for less than 200k units of deliveries to Tesla annually by 2022, which likely puts us in between where we believe bulls and bears stand. While we anticipate significant pent-up demand for Tesla's locally produced vehicles in the PRC, longer- term we expect the Chinese EV market to remain highly competitive and see Tesla ́s China volume peaking at 254k units sold in 2024, before falling to the 160k to 170k range by 2030.
We continue to have concerns on the long-term viability of a US player in the Chinese EV market. Moreover, we believe investors must consider global trade and geopolitical risks as Tesla’s exposure to China increases.
"We think that both bulls and bears alike believe that Tesla's autonomy timeline is unrealistic," he says.
A month ago a Tesla accident in Austria resulted in firefighters needing to use a special container to transport the remains of the vehicle and the battery at the scene of the accident.
Now, the owner of the vehicle is having trouble finding someone who will properly recycle his wrecked car and its battery. It's been sitting in one place since the accident and Tyrol reports that nobody wants to burn their fingers to dispose of the car with its unpredictable 600kg lithium ion battery
The owner, Dominik Freymuth, says he feels abandoned by the manufacturer (Tesla). Every morning he passes by the wreckage of his old vehicle, a stark reminder of being pulled out of his burning vehicle before it was charred to the ground, he says.
Tesla's website asserts its Austrian disposal partner ÖCAR Automobile Recycling (Autoverwertungs): "has a large network of authorized recycling and disposal partners fully licensed by the Department of the Environment."
But ÖCAR reportedly has "no permission" to take over Tesla models, according to a spokeswoman for the company. She stated: I can not give you any information because we have no authorization for Tesla.
Many disposal companies don't want to deal with the Tesla batter, because its a "fire hazard" and because you do not remember where the battery starts and where it stops - especially after a wreck.
Martin Klingler, waste disposal expert at Schwaz environmental company DAKA:
Such a large lithium battery can not be assumed by my company, since one hardly knows the mix of dangerous substances inside them. The electric vehicle manufacturers kept the composition of their elixirs top secret so as not to lose their competitive edge. The liquid in which the accident car was cooled by the Walchsee is a dangerously poisonous brew, but now a coveted drop. The Montanuniversität Leoben has already secured samples of it in order to discover the secret of its content.
The transportation of the unpredictable battery would require an EU dangerous goods permit, which does not even exist in Austria, says Klingler of the company DAKA.
More abrupt, Roland Pomberger, Leoben chair for waste utilization technology, was asked how to deal with such a Tesla battery, simply reseponding: I don't know.
This falls into the responsibility of the producer (Tesla), and the remains of the Walchsee incident show that this manufacturer (Tesla) has probably not thought too much about it. Here there is a failure to think from cradle to grave.
Freymuth on buying a new Tesla: I will not buy any more, now that I know the time bomb I am sitting on.
https://tirol.orf.at/stories/3021270/https://twitter.com/davidein/status/1197946980095397888Stock guy wrote:
I've been reading their financials and they look seriously suspicious.
Will Elon Musk go the way of Bernie Madoff and Allen Stanford?
I’m a D2 female runner. Our coach explicitly told us not to visit LetsRun forums.
Great interview with Steve Cram - says Jakob has no chance of WRs this year
RENATO can you talk about the preparation of Emile Cairess 2:06
adizero Road to Records with Yomif Kejelcha, Agnes Ngetich, Hobbs Kessler & many more is Saturday
2024 College Track & Field Open Coaching Positions Discussion
Hats off to my dad. He just ran a 1:42 Half Marathon and turns 75 in 2 months!