I did my first double today. Man, have I been missing out.

grenio wrote:

scorpion_runner wrote:

How so? My 5k PB I did on the track at 18:52, on the road 20mins.. I've been running since I was 19( just free running, hitting the streets and just running for 30 mins to an hour with no training or understanding of running at the time), and I started competing 4 years ago. My first race I did 24 mins, and I have dropped down in time each year....and will continue to drop as I train. And here is the thing I haven't even gotten into some serious, serious mileage yet. So for me, especially with this year, is to hit 19 mins consistently for all 5ks, and to hit 39mins to 40 mins consistently with my 10ks. ...and if I can do 1:30s with my first half that will let me know that I'm headed in the right direction...

My race season begins tomorrow, with the first 5k of the year...

There are a lot of runners who get faster as they get older, especially the ones who have never experienced any wear and tear from competing harder or racing in their younger years....a lot of untapped energy or ability.

You are clearly headed in the right direction. 18:52 5K is a good indicator, and you've no doubt checked the calculators that equate that time to a marathon in the low 3's. But I think low 3's is still ambitious because of your lack of distance training. Those calculators are totally inaccurate for predicting times for longer distances that you haven't run before. Those calculators are built by using actual times of runners that have hit certain times at longer distances. For example, an 18:52 5K doesn't mean that you should be able to run a 3:03 marathon. Rather, the calculator is telling you that if you can run a 3:03 marathon, then you'd probably run about 18:52 for the 5K. Totally different if you haven't been training for distance.

I suggested a 16 mile run because at that distance (15-19 for most people) you will be totally glycogen depleted, even if you are eating/drinking during the run. You will only maintain pace if your body is well-adapted to metabolizing body fat in the liver into usable glucose at a really high rate. And that only comes with a LOT of training while depleted. If your long run is 10 miles, then you have literally never been there.

I was compelled to reply to you because I too am 44 and I too am trying to break 3 hours (Boston in April). I can run 20 miles at 6:52 on an empty stomach with no food/drink during training, but I still have only managed a 3:09. There's no shortage of first time marathoners who were fit at 5K/10K who ran well to 16 miles and then limped in with 9:00s. Another way to look at a marathon is that it's a 20 mile warm up followed by the hardest 10K effort of your life. So the question becomes, how do I get to 20 miles completely fresh? Ouch. Good luck in that half! Don't go out fast, even if it feels easy. My guess is that you could do a 1:30 but only if you pace it right.