Official LRC President Donald J Trump Thread

Non-Running Politics

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3 years ago 11/03/2020 8:49am EST

re: Fat hurts

Fat hurts wrote:
Monkeys typing wrote:
Blue wave! This race is over!!!
https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/02/politics/dixville-notch-2020-results/index.html
Yesterday I had a group text with my two siblings. My brother wanted to make sure that our votes lined up to cancel out our Trumpy parents. He has never voted Democrat in his life. But this year my brother has cast his vote for Biden (he was a McMullin man last time). My sister was going for Biden, but she sometimes votes Republican. So the children outnumbered the parents 3 to 2.
But then I pointed out that we all have spouses and some have voting age children. We all confirmed, everyone was going blue. In total, that's 9 votes for Biden and 2 votes for Trump.
9 to 2
Blue wave indeed!!!!

I have four siblings & they all voted for Trump. That's 5 (including myself) plus 3 spouses= 8 for Trump

So, 2 from your family + 8 from mine = 10 for Trump

Trump wins 10-9

KAG2020

3 years ago 11/03/2020 8:49am EST

re: agip

agip wrote:
It's not economics fueling trumpism. women would be on board if it were. It's something else. Although it's a stew, of course.
And of course, some groups of people have had a rough go of the last 20 years. Sure. But why have only white men with no college been the ones to go full trump? Why not black men? Why not hispanic men? Why not...

This pre-dates Trumpism, but you might find it provides some insight into what drives the movement:

http://www.culturalcognition.net/blog/2013/6/10/what-are-fearless-white-hierarchical-individualist-males-afr.html

Some background on the framework here:

http://www.culturalcognition.net/blog/2012/6/21/politically-nonpartisan-folks-are-culturally-polarized-on-cl.html

I, of course, stumbled on Kahan's research via the climate change debates, but at some point had the epiphany that by and large individual positions across various cultural divides are mostly a function of worldview and largely impervious to contrary facts. People can and have rationalized just about anything through human history.

3 years ago 11/03/2020 8:59am EST

re: welp

welp wrote:
I'm a teacher at an exclusive private school in south florida and one of my responsibilities is parking lot duty. One of our "connected" parents drove in and said he " knows people and that over 500,000 more republicans have voted early, so it's over."
I decided to take a look at it myself.
https://countyballotfiles.floridados.gov/VoteByMailEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats
IN PERSON early voting favors republicans by over 500,000 votes. Correct. But mail-in voting favors democrats by almost 700,000.
Incredible to me that people still don't get that mail-in votes count just the same.

Also, that guy is assuming all of those Republicans voted for Trump...faulty assumption.

3 years ago 11/03/2020 9:00am EST

re: agip

agip wrote:
I added 538 (and Fat Hurts, who asked to mimic 538)
Electoral College
LL: Biden 413-125
Flagpole: Biden 334
Agip: Biden 334-204
Runningart2004: Biden 418
Highhoppingworm: Biden 306
Breitleit Biden 279
Rigged: Trump 313
Sally Vix: Trump 283
15-50 Trump 279-259 B+7.1%
Welp: Biden 331
Trollminator: Biden 309
Johnny99 Biden 290
Zephito 291-46 52%-46%
Kibbitzer D 290
538/ Fat Hurts D348
Texas EC
Sally Vix: R
Trollminator: R
Johnny99 R
Zephito: R
Agip:R
Kibbitzer: R
538/Fats: R
Florida EC
Sally Vix: R
Trollminator: R
Johnny 99 R
Zephito: R
Agip D
538/Fats: D
Senate Control:
Flagpole: D
Count Chocula: D
Highhoppingworm: D
Rigged: R, 51-49
Agip: D: 51/49
Trollminator: D 52 seats with VP
Johnny99: D
Zephito: 50/50
538/Fats: D 52-48
House
Flagpole: Ds increase seats
Rigged: D, but lose 10 seats
Agip: Ds add 8 seats to 240
Trolliminator: Ds add to their seats for a new gap of 41
Johnny99 Ds gain 7
Zephito: D 243 seats
Kibbitzer D 35 seat advantage
538/Fats: D 239-196
SC Senator:
LL: D
Agip: R
Flagpole: R
Johnny 99: R
Zephito: R
Count Chocula: D
Highhoppingworm: R
Trollminator: D
538/Fats: R
KY Senator:
Flagpole: R
Agip: R
Trollminator: R
Johnny99: R
538/Fats: R
AZ Senator
Count Chocula: D
Agip: D
Trollminator: D
Johnny99: D
Zephito: D
Kibbitzer: D
538/Fats: D
CO Senator
Count Chocula: D
Agip: D
Trollminator: D
Johnny99: D
Zephito: D
538/Fats: D
ME Senator:
Count Chocula: D
Agip: D
Trollminator: D
Johnny99: D
Zephito: D
538/Fats: D
NC Senator:
Count Chocula: D
Agip: D
Trollminator: D
Johnny99: D
Zephito: D
Kibitzer: D
538/Fats: D
GA Senator Regular (Perdue/Ossoff):
Count Chocula: D
Agip: R
Trollminator: R
Johnny99: R
Kibbitzer: R
538/Fats: R
GA Senator Special
Fat Hurts: R
Agip: D
Trollminator: D
Johnny99: D
Zephito: R
Fat Hurts: R
Kibbitzer: R
538/Fats: D
IA Senator:
Count Chocula: D
Agip: R
Trollminator: D
Zephito: R
Kibbitzer: R
538/Fats: R
AL Senator:
Count Chocula; R
Agip: R
Trollminator: R
Johnny99:R
Kibitzer: R
538/Fats: R

agip, you're going to lose the FL prediction because you failed to recognize the YUUUUGE GOP surge in Miami-Dade county which I kept talking about for over a week. FL is Trump country. I'm calling it now.

Biden has lost FL- one third of Trump's firewall is now built. AZ & NC are next...

https://twitter.com/CottoGottfried/status/1323638422788018177

KAG2020

3 years ago 11/03/2020 9:03am EST

re: Ghost of Igloi

Ghost of Igloi wrote:
A recent statement by former Vice President Joe Biden suggests the election is closer than polls are showing, according to billionaire bond fund manager Jeffrey Gundlach.
“There was a story on Bloomberg which I found fascinating: It was Joe Biden's warning Trump not to declare victory too early,” Gundlach, CEO and chief investment officer of Los Angeles-based DoubleLine Capital, which has $148 billion in assets under management, said on a conference call on Monday.
“That doesn't sound like a statement made by a confident politician with a comfortable lead in the polls,” he added. “What's he so worried about if he believes those polls? So it's a very strange statement for him to make. I think it's a tell that their internal polling isn't quite close to the mainstream polls, which are used to influence rather than to gauge the possibilities."

That just shows he isn't being complacent and doesn't want Democrats to be.

3 years ago 11/03/2020 9:06am EST

re: Flagpole

3 years ago 11/03/2020 9:12am EST

re: agip

agip wrote:
Just Wundrin wrote:
i think you are missing the most important piece of this in your analysis.
Your point that "It's about culture and a definition of masculinity that is close to fascism." does not in any way indicate that "this election is NOT about how Bubba is being screwed economically."
Bubba has gotten screwed economically. As a result, Bubba is not able to take care of his family, is not able to show off his economic success, does not command respect . . . in short, he has been emasculated. So, what does he turn to but "a definition of masculinity that is close to fascism" and a strange, warped individual who play-acts the part.
Is it mere coincidence that the rise of this faux masculinity "that is close to fascism" coincides with Bubba getting screwed economically while the rise of actual fascism and turning to another strange, warped individual who play acted the part coincided with the Germans getting screwed economically?
I hear you on comparing the economic problems of weimar to trumpandia.
BUT
you are assuming that's true that bubba got screwed. I challenge that. Living standards have been rising for decades for all economic classes in America. We have very little inflation. We had a very low unemployment rate when trump was elected. Incomes were rising, etc. The people in Trump car parades have $50,000 trucks, not $3000 beaters.
It's not economics fueling trumpism. women would be on board if it were. It's something else. Although it's a stew, of course.
And of course, some groups of people have had a rough go of the last 20 years. Sure. But why have only white men with no college been the ones to go full trump? Why not black men? Why not hispanic men? Why not...

Well, I am not sure that we disagree if we really dig down into it. But I will say a few last things here.

1) I know about your pet peeve and mantra but it is not really relevant. Bubba has been losing economic standing, clout and self-respect for decades. This whole thing has been stewing for that long. It is not about the unemployment rate when Trump was elected. it is about Bubba being really, really angry for quite a long time.

2) Black men and brown men have not gone full trump because Trump openly hates them. And Trump can't afford to NOT openly hate them because then he would lose Bubba. As I've said before on this thread, give a man someone to look down upon and you win his loyalty. It was one of the foundation pieces for slavery. It remains true now.

Economics and Bubba being emasculated is a HUGE part of the picture. Just read the posts by Jamin, Rigged, Sally et al. If these are not emasculated men, I don't know who is.

And racism is also a huge part of it. As you note, it's a stew.

At any rate, have a good election day. All the best.

3 years ago 11/03/2020 9:14am EST

re: Rigged for Hillary

The Dem lead in FL vanished just like Cankles' emails.

https://twitter.com/LarrySchweikart/status/1323643718881062912

3 years ago 11/03/2020 9:26am EST

re: NameStolenAgain

Pro-Life Trump is blessed by God and Biden is not.

3 years ago 11/03/2020 9:28am EST

re: Just Wundrin

Just Wundrin wrote:
agip wrote:
I hear you on comparing the economic problems of weimar to trumpandia.
BUT
you are assuming that's true that bubba got screwed. I challenge that. Living standards have been rising for decades for all economic classes in America. We have very little inflation. We had a very low unemployment rate when trump was elected. Incomes were rising, etc. The people in Trump car parades have $50,000 trucks, not $3000 beaters.
It's not economics fueling trumpism. women would be on board if it were. It's something else. Although it's a stew, of course.
And of course, some groups of people have had a rough go of the last 20 years. Sure. But why have only white men with no college been the ones to go full trump? Why not black men? Why not hispanic men? Why not...
Well, I am not sure that we disagree if we really dig down into it. But I will say a few last things here.
1) I know about your pet peeve and mantra but it is not really relevant. Bubba has been losing economic standing, clout and self-respect for decades. This whole thing has been stewing for that long. It is not about the unemployment rate when Trump was elected. it is about Bubba being really, really angry for quite a long time.
2) Black men and brown men have not gone full trump because Trump openly hates them. And Trump can't afford to NOT openly hate them because then he would lose Bubba. As I've said before on this thread, give a man someone to look down upon and you win his loyalty. It was one of the foundation pieces for slavery. It remains true now.
Economics and Bubba being emasculated is a HUGE part of the picture. Just read the posts by Jamin, Rigged, Sally et al. If these are not emasculated men, I don't know who is.
And racism is also a huge part of it. As you note, it's a stew.
At any rate, have a good election day. All the best.

cheers amico

3 years ago 11/03/2020 9:31am EST

re: Rigged for Hillary

Rigged for Hillary wrote:
agip, you're going to lose the FL prediction because you failed to recognize the YUUUUGE GOP surge in Miami-Dade county which I kept talking about for over a week. FL is Trump country. I'm calling it now.
Biden has lost FL- one third of Trump's firewall is now built. AZ & NC are next...

Really?

https://countyballotfiles.floridados.gov/VoteByMailEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

Miami Dade County, as of 8:35am - about 100,000 more mail-in-votes for registered dems than registered republicans. It's a virtual tie for in-person early voting.

So overall early voting favors registered democrats about 400,000 to 300,000......

AND again his doesn't even take into account the number of republicans and independents.

3 years ago 11/03/2020 9:35am EST

re: epic gamer_

epic gamer_ wrote:
When results will be known since few people are talking about this.
Arizona- Unknown when we'll get the unofficial results, but we should have a good idea by tomorrow.
Florida- Wednesday or Thursday most likely
Georgia- Unofficial results may come later in the week, but we should have a good idea tomorrow
Iowa- results will be "In a timely fashion like we do for every election"
Maine- Results should be known tonight
Michigan- Unofficial results before Friday
Minnesota- All votes cast on or before election day will be counted by noon on Wednesday, but mail in votes can arrive late
Nevada- Unknown when results will be known
New Hampshire- Unknown
North Carolina- officials believe 97% of votes will be counted tonight or very early tomorrow morning
Ohio- Gonna be a while, possibly a few weeks]
Pennsylvania- By Friday
Texas- results by tonight
Wisconsin- We'll likely know tonight, no later than tomorrow.
Source: New York Times
If I missed anything or got anything wrong please correct me

The official votes will take a while.

I think numbers for the in-hand votes as of the end of the day today will be available by the end of the day tomorrow.

And that will represent the vast majority of votes cast with so many already in hand before today.

So I think we will see numbers in all 50 states plus DC that will be the equivalent of a final more accurate poll with a near immaterial amount of mail-in votes left to count.

I think there will be enough projected winners for someone to have 270 tomorrow.

I am guessing the remaining mail-ins will be less than the margin of the lead in each state for enough states to call 270.

And Biden has so many paths to victory that if anyone gets to 270 early it would be him.

Trump needs almost everything to go his way.

3 years ago 11/03/2020 9:35am EST

re: Rigged for Hillary

Rigged for Hillary wrote:
I have four siblings & they all voted for Trump. That's 5 (including myself) plus 3 spouses= 8 for Trump
So, 2 from your family + 8 from mine = 10 for Trump
Trump wins 10-9
KAG2020

Let’s keep the good times rolling

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/https://www.usdebtclock.org/

3 years ago 11/03/2020 9:37am EST

re: agip

agip, you forgot to include the trumpers' predictions ;)

3 years ago 11/03/2020 9:38am EST

re: L L

By the way, I drove by two polling places today and the lines were very small.

I saw long lines over the last week for early voting.

And I know most people voted by drop box.

It seems like most people were like me, afraid of long election day lines so they voted early.

3 years ago 11/03/2020 9:40am EST

re: L L

L L wrote:
epic gamer_ wrote:
When results will be known since few people are talking about this.
Arizona- Unknown when we'll get the unofficial results, but we should have a good idea by tomorrow.
Florida- Wednesday or Thursday most likely
Georgia- Unofficial results may come later in the week, but we should have a good idea tomorrow
Iowa- results will be "In a timely fashion like we do for every election"
Maine- Results should be known tonight
Michigan- Unofficial results before Friday
Minnesota- All votes cast on or before election day will be counted by noon on Wednesday, but mail in votes can arrive late
Nevada- Unknown when results will be known
New Hampshire- Unknown
North Carolina- officials believe 97% of votes will be counted tonight or very early tomorrow morning
Ohio- Gonna be a while, possibly a few weeks]
Pennsylvania- By Friday
Texas- results by tonight
Wisconsin- We'll likely know tonight, no later than tomorrow.
Source: New York Times
If I missed anything or got anything wrong please correct me
The official votes will take a while.
I think numbers for the in-hand votes as of the end of the day today will be available by the end of the day tomorrow.
And that will represent the vast majority of votes cast with so many already in hand before today.
So I think we will see numbers in all 50 states plus DC that will be the equivalent of a final more accurate poll with a near immaterial amount of mail-in votes left to count.
I think there will be enough projected winners for someone to have 270 tomorrow.
I am guessing the remaining mail-ins will be less than the margin of the lead in each state for enough states to call 270.
And Biden has so many paths to victory that if anyone gets to 270 early it would be him.
Trump needs almost everything to go his way.

my going thesis is that if Joe wins any one of FL GA AZ NC, it's 90% over for Spanks. And each of those is reporting tonight or tomorrow. So I'd say we'll know a lot by 2 am tonight, or thereabouts.

Esp if early returns from Wisco look good for Joe.

3 years ago 11/03/2020 9:44am EST

re: Rigged for Hillary

Rigged for Hillary wrote:
Philly is corrupt.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1323615834455994373

The people at the door asked him to call the police out of precaution, that's fair. The cops should be able to straighten that out quickly. Nothing to see here biff, BLM did not confront him and the Proud Boys did not drive their trumper trucks onto the curb.

3 years ago 11/03/2020 9:44am EST

re: Rigged for Hillary

Rigged for Hillary wrote:
Here is the final electoral map from Barnes Law:
Trump 326
Biden 212
https://www.270towin.com/maps/9JdRk

LOLz

3 years ago 11/03/2020 9:45am EST

re: Jeff Wigand

https://twitter.com/athein1/status/1323649026680528896

You can track the FL results here (updates every 20 mins):

https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/

Biden has lost FL.

KAG2020

3 years ago 11/03/2020 9:47am EST

re: epic gamer_

epic gamer_ wrote:
When results will be known since few people are talking about this.
Arizona- Unknown when we'll get the unofficial results, but we should have a good idea by tomorrow.
Florida- Wednesday or Thursday most likely
Georgia- Unofficial results may come later in the week, but we should have a good idea tomorrow
Iowa- results will be "In a timely fashion like we do for every election"
Maine- Results should be known tonight
Michigan- Unofficial results before Friday
Minnesota- All votes cast on or before election day will be counted by noon on Wednesday, but mail in votes can arrive late
Nevada- Unknown when results will be known
New Hampshire- Unknown
North Carolina- officials believe 97% of votes will be counted tonight or very early tomorrow morning
Ohio- Gonna be a while, possibly a few weeks]
Pennsylvania- By Friday
Texas- results by tonight
Wisconsin- We'll likely know tonight, no later than tomorrow.
Source: New York Times
If I missed anything or got anything wrong please correct me

Actually the more important thing to watch for is whether the count hits a point that the losing candidate would not be able to make up enough of the gap. PA and FL could actually easily call it early if Biden is destroying trump with 85-90% of the vote.

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