Official LRC President Donald J Trump Thread

China are amateurs at disinformation.

To really screw up your virus response, you need about 60 million blindly loyal, extremely stupid trumpanzees.

this sort of thing is why I'm not paying too much attention to testing.

this is going to klll a lot of people - waiting a week for results.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/01/politics/testing-backlog-coronavirus-quest-invs/index.html

Trump Maths wrote:

P wrote:

Another way to keep your case/death numbers low - just make them up.

Only total 1084 cases in the U.S. now. With +-4,025 deaths (+ - ???). And -7749 active cases (Yes, MINUS).

Where do you get those numbers?

I am looking at same source and the numbers are 214K cases, 4082 deaths

agip wrote:

this sort of thing is why I'm not paying too much attention to testing.

this is going to klll a lot of people - waiting a week for results.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/01/politics/testing-backlog-coronavirus-quest-invs/index.html

One of the reasons I’ve said all along that P is trying to model bad data.

Trump lies.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/ap-fact-check-trumps-misfires-184918987.html

Criminal behavior.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/disclosure-reveals-sen-kelly-loeffler-165432001.html

agip wrote:

agip wrote:

FFS those are direct quotes that are cited by many, many outlets.

he made a video - take a look at the first 10 minutes if you want a direct source.

and anyway, viruses *are* hard to catch if you take precautions.

How many people would get viruses if they washed their hands religiously, were careful of what they touched and didn't get close enough to people to get coughed on? Some fraction of the number who do get viruses.

This isn't magic here. It's physics of objects moving in space.

So you've graduated from bring a bean counter to a medical expert? The medical experts are emphasizing social distancing as the best means of combatting transmission. Washing hands is important, they say, but not nearly so effective without social distancing. If that were not so there would be no legitimate argument for a lockdown, which most countries are employing.

Lol at Dems on this site coming UNGLUED. Wait until PRESIDENT TRUMP is reelected. Going to be a lot of RRRRREEEEEEEE!

USA - Good News! (Really)

///

Yes, I know the headlines today will be that this is the greatest number of deaths in the US in one day by a long shot. But as usual, the headlines miss the real news. For those who understand that imperfect data is not the same thing as useless data, today continues a very positive trend for the US.

///

First, the numbers

All case/death numbers below represent daily percentage growth in overall cases/deaths.

USA Daily percentage growth in cases

Mar 8: 33.9%

Mar 9: 24.5%

Mar 10: 27.4%

Mar 11: 20.6%

Mar 12: 24.8%

Mar 13. 28.7%

Mar 14: 27.7%

Mar 15: 27.0%

Mar 16: 26.8%

Mar 17: 36.0%

Mar 18: 46.2%

Mar 19: 48.8%

Mar 20: 39.1%

Mar 21: 24.6%

Mar 22: 35.3%

Mar 23: 34.3%

Mar 24: 22.6%

Mar 25: 23.6%

Mar 26: 29.2%

Mar 27: 19.6%

Mar 28: 19.6%

Mar 29: 16.3%

Mar 30: 15.5%

Mar 31: 14.6%

Apr 01: 14.5%

USA Daily percentage growth in deaths

Mar 8: 12.0%

Mar 9: 14.3%

Mar 10: 12.5%

Mar 11: 19.4%

Mar 12: 2.3%

Mar 13: 15.9%

Mar 14: 13.7%

Mar 15: 17.2%

Mar 16: 26.5%

Mar 17: 23.3%

Mar 18: 42.5%

Mar 19: 37.1%

Mar 20: 20.3%

Mar 21: 20.9%

Mar 22: 37.5%

Mar 23: 31.6%

Mar 24: 26.4%

Mar 25: 35.7%

Mar 26: 38.0%

Mar 27: 23.1%

Mar 28: 28.3%

Mar 29: 21.2%

Mar 30: 27.5%

Mar 31: 22.3%

Apr 01: 32.3%

USA Fatality Rate (Cumulative deaths/cases)

Mar 7: 4.5%

Mar 8: 3.8%

Mar 9: 3.5%

Mar 10: 3.1%

Mar 11: 3.0%

Mar 12: 2.5%

Mar 13: 2.2%

Mar 14: 2.0%

Mar 15: 1.8%

Mar 16: 1.8%

Mar 17: 1.7%

Mar 18: 1.6%

Mar 19: 1.5%

Mar 20: 1.3%

Mar 21: 1.3%

Mar 22: 1.3%

Mar 23: 1.3%

Mar 24: 1.3%

Mar 25: 1.4%

Mar 26: 1.5%

Mar 27: 1.6%

Mar 28: 1.7%

Mar 29: 1.7%

Mar 30: 1.9%

Mar 31: 2.1%

Apr: 01: 2.4%

///

Note 1: Fatality rate is rising rather dramatically from a low of 1.3% to 2.4% now. This is seriously bad news, right? No, it is actually good news. The fatality rate was being kept artificially low by the extremely rapid increase in the number of reported cases. The fact that it is rising so rapidly at this time primarily reflects the good news that the growth rate in the number of cases has fallen significantly.

Note 2: The real news (what everybody should be focusing on) is in the steady decline in the growth rate for reported cases. Everything is a lagging indicator in this but the case numbers are a less lagging indicator than the death numbers. The pattern for the US looks a great deal like that seen elsewhere. Look for the percentage growth in deaths to start to drop within a week and possibly within the next few days.

Note 3: Growth rate of reported cases, growth rate of deaths, fatality rate - these are the only three numbers to watch if you want to understand what is going on. Right now, reported cases is telling the story (which the "news" will pick up on eventually). And the story is good news right now.

Trump ally Boris Johnson admits, after several healthcare workers in UK have died of covid-19, that only 2000 have been tested!

Out of 550,000.

Same problem in USA of course, only we aren’t even tracking it or it’s secret.

Ciro wrote:

Criminal behavior.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/disclosure-reveals-sen-kelly-loeffler-165432001.html

Lock her up!

Drain the Swamp!

jesseriley wrote:

Hi Yosinglerc,

You sure change the spelling of your name a lot! When you had a “t” on the end you called me a Russian agent.

Perhaps transliterating from Cyrillic alphabet leads to some problems?

So far I have counted several spellings of your unusual handle.

I don’t know. Perhaps it has something to do with you registering my username over and over again. Lol

That’s okay. It’d be great if you were more civil on this board and would stop stalking me. Kinda creepy. To each his own though. Cheers!

I’ll start with the broadest numbers: Five day change in worldwide deaths. You can see the growth trend is clearly slowing. That is great news. Top number is oldest, bottom number is 4/1

96%

104%

153%

93%

127%

117%

167%

95%

59%

100%

92%

120%

76%

72%

100%

88%

31%

55%

56%

39%

That trend is going in the right direction. But growth in the US will probably keep it from going much lower. World ex-USA stats will become more important as we go.

April 1 was better than average. Global deaths increased 8% over 3/31 vs a longer term average of 15%. That kept global 3-day averages inline with the longer term average of 15% per day.

The good news continues to be the Italy/France/Spain grouping. Deaths in Italy fell 13% day over day, leading the group to a fairly low 5% 3 day average growth.

The USA continues to be the biggest problem in a pure numbers basis – with over 1,000 deaths per day and growing 44% per day on a 3 day average basis.

To give a sense of how large a problem the US is:

3 day averages, to smooth out one day blips:

USA daily growth: +44%

World ex-USA daily growth: 11%

The US is both the deadliest major nation and the one growing fastest. A bad combination.

The US is already 21% of world daily deaths and I suspect that will rise. The US was 11% of world daily deaths just three days ago.

Case counts don’t mean a whole lot, but Italy and Spain made it another day in their bands…15 days for Italy and 10 for Spain. France data are v. messy – not as consistent as Italy and Spain. Since we don’t know the status of testing programs in Italy and Spain we can’t make too much out of this, but it’s not bad news on the surface.

So, another day of the same trends. Global growth is slowing, growth in Italy and Spain are slowing, but the US is very bad and getting worse very day.

My biggest question is if Spain and Italy are our future. If they are, we can envisage a topping out phase of a few weeks. And when will Spain, Italy and France go down the backside of the curve.

Yes, it is good news. But the better news is that more big red states like Florida and Georgia have finally issued stay at home orders. Everywhere around the world, the one thing that has proven to work is for everyone to stay home.

New Deaths lags New Cases

Decline in New Case Growth lags Stay at Home Orders

I haven't done the state-by-state analysis, but I expect that states like California who shut down early will fare much better than states who waited. I expect the data will eventually show that during a pandemic you are much better off having a Democrat as governor.

A Democrat is going to react sooner and take more decisive action to protect the people while a Republican is going to protect businesses as long as possible.

Democrats care about people. Republicans care about profits.

Hi Yosinglerc,

If you suspect me of stealing your handle, the mods will definitely settle the matter. Equally, if you make a false complaint you’re history. Your choice. An empty threat.

If you don’t know who is stealing your handle, why aren’t you concerned? Some of your homonyms (your “homies”, so to speak) have already been banned.

Trust me, I have had my own name referenced at least a dozen times in handles, not counting outright impersonators. It’s my real name, so I find it unlikely that you are being impersonated and don’t know or don’t care, based on repeated personal experience.

JesseIsGarbage is my favorite, for example.

6.6 million additional unemployed last week.

Wow, almost 8 times the record before last week?

P when we see stories of 7-10 day backups in testing programs, and 160,000 test backlogs...isn't there a large chance the conclusions you are drawing are just a mirage? Based on test results that don't reflect what is going on out there?