Always bad wrote:
W Bush had approval ratings above 50% for much of his presidency and 90% after 9/11.
They tanked in his second term.
I don't think Trump ever reached 50%.
Correct! Trump has not cracked 50% during his term. His average is 43% per Gallup with the overall avergae for all presidents being 53%. BUT, for frame of reference OBUMMER was polling at 41% in Sep 2011--Trump was at 40% for sep 2019 (both a year out from the election for second term). For another historical comparison, Carter was at 32% in September of 1979...and, of course, he went on to get thumped by Ronnie Raygun in Nov 1980.
My interpretetation of the above is that 1) Trump is definitely still the favorite for 2020 (OBUMMER won with similar poll numbers a year out) 2) IF Trump drops into the mid to low 30s--that will be the point at which the smart money will be on his Dem challenger.