538 wrote:
XY wrote:
RCP has Trump approval rating up to 44.2% !!!
He's looking Presidential
538
Approve 41.8%
Disapprove 52.7%
Trump is losing by 10.9%
All of the 538 big picture numbers are moving sharply in favor of Trump and the GOP. I'm a Democrat but I'm also a political gambler and it's laughable to ignore the trends. If it continues in this direction there will be no blue wave. The political pundits have not picked up on this trend at all but right now it is impacting the landscape by the changing hour.
Trump was 39.9% on 538 as recently as September 13, less than 3 weeks ago. Today he is up to 41.9%. If it continues in this direction Trump could easily hit the midterm with his high water mark of 2018, which was 42.4% on 538 on May 29.
538 was as high as 83.7% on Democratic likelihood of taking over the House a few weeks ago. Now that has plunged to 74.9% and drops lower every time I check. It was above 80% two days ago.
538 has Democratic senate chances at 26.8%, down from their opening number of 34.3% about a month ago. Like the House number, that senate percentage is dropping virtually by the hour. Frankly, the 34.3% was a bad number and never should have been posted. Nothing aligned with 34.3% chance and it led to some false optimism among Democrats. The other mathematical models were in the 12-18% range all year before rising to 18-26% when Trump was at his low point a few week ago. I have been playing the Democratic "No" on senate control at Predicit whenever the blocks of 65 cents or lower show up. I have a bundle on this market. I think I will begin playing at 66 cents. This price is simply too low.
IMO, the Kavanaugh hearings are unintentionally working heavily in favor of Trump and the GOP toward the midterms. Trump is essentially staying out of the way and allowing this to unfold. The negative news and old allegations are attaching to another white male, and not Trump himself.
If the confirmation were not going on, you know darn well Trump would be ranting about one topic or another, defining himself and limiting his upside. This lull basically confirms that Trump is his own worst enemy. If he merely shut up the public would be happy with how things are going in their daily lives and Trump would steadily inherit a higher approval rating.
Anyone who thinks Trump has no chance in 2020 is a monumental fool. That situational aspect of an incumbent with his party in power only one term holds immense benefit of a doubt and overwhelms any other related variable.