make this letsprint.com wrote:
Let's say you take a few non-obese, non-disabled males in their 20s. They train for a year or two, don't take any steroids, and don't devote their lives to it (they don't spend much time in the weight room, don't train twice a day, don't have a coach, etc.). What would be the median sprint times of that group? Assume they have FAT timing, blocks, spikes, and < 2.0 m/s tailwind. I'm guessing:
100: 12.4-12.5
200: 25.0-25.2
400: 55.0-55.5
Does this sound right?
The times are way off.
1. The average non obese non disabled male in their 20s does not even look like an athlete. THEY DON’T EVEN RUN!
2. If there’s no coach the average person is going to get injured training for this. I’ve been around many high school and collegiate runners and the average track and field athlete has zero idea of how to structure their own training program for a season, let alone two years. The “average” letsrun poster has no idea how to properly train for sprints so the “average” 20 something male is going to have even less.
3. FAT. The handheld, self timed 100m time trials are woefully inaccurate. A self timed 100m is at least half or .75 seconds slower than FAT because of starting and stopping by the athlete in action versus a stationary and unbiased timer.
4. Blocks. To properly come out of blocks an athlete needs coaching and weight lifting. Since they have neither proper coaching or serious weightlifting, coming out of blocks will be a detriment to them. The average 20 something at the gym isn’t doing cleans, deadlifts, or any type of squats. They’ll waste at least half a second popping up and shuffling their feet to start.
5. Sprint variance. The 400 will see the highest fall off in time. There are two breeds of sprinters 100-200m guys and 400m ones. The elite 100-200 guys can run a decent 400 but they’re not running equivalents. So the actual “average” 20 something without a coach/real training program is definitely not going to run an “equivalent” 400m.
Just because some high school had a couple of guys (out of probably a thousand with “ideal
coaching”) or some untalented letsrunner went down to the track or “self measured” 100m and generously hand timed themselves at 13-14 seconds does not mean some average 20 something guy is going to run 12.5 seconds in a FAT timed race. 90 percent of these guys would get injured or quit within a year so the average would be north of 20. Of the guys who would make it through this “meat grinder” their times would be around 14 seconds.