S. Canaday wrote:
You're looking at the numbers times in too linear of a fashion. 5km track times and road marathon times don't add up a lot. The hills and mountains and longer distances beyond 26.2 are way harder to "predict." Think of the influence of variable running economy. That is the key. MUT Running is more exponential, and the best track/road runner doesn't always win.
If it was a road ultra or something flatter, yeah the track/road guys are more consistent. But the mountains and big hills and lots of elevation change throw people for a loop. Even 2:14 marathoner Max King has struggled to get top 10 in this very race and the guy is a 12km World Mountain Running Champ and placed top 10 at Comrades. But those are all every different events.
I agree with you though, the sport is not clean. There are for sure guys doping (and some have been caught with EPO already).
But the fact os the matter is that Zach was very good when he started ultras...he has improved slowly and steadily, but not by huge margins.
He beat me and Rob Krar head to head at the Lake Sonoma 50 two years ago in his second 50-miler ever.
He lead UTMB for 75 or so miles this year but he wasn't even close to CR pace and he blew up trying (a valiant effort that was gutsy though and I really respect him for still finishing so hard as that would probably totally break me).
His run at TNF50 yesterday was very impressive and he beat a lot of guys (including me by a ton as I totally bonked trying to stick with his pace), but in my opinion, that would not been indicative of doping at all knowing his background and the history of this race. The course this year was 49 miles with around 10,400' of climbing (in other years it's been 49.5 miles and 51.5 miles with mud). We ran on more fire roads this year compared to single track. This year weather conditions were ripe for fast times and the footing was solid. Hayden was the perfect comp for Zach to push the pace with and they battled all day. It was super impressive to watch as they pulled away and it was a great race for both of them. I think Hayden has the potential to beat Zach...but it might be pretty close a lot of the time and it comes down to the details of the MUT Running event.
For example, Hayden made the US mountain running team at 12km (a team Zach probably couldn't make the year), and was 4th in the world at that event. But that's a lot different than a 50-miler in the mountains/hills.
Zach is a good honest, hard working kid. There is for sure doping going on in MUT Running, but Zach is the very last person that I'd ever suspect.
HopingI'mWrong wrote:Responses to comments:
A long history of fast guys under performing in ultras exists. The learning curve is steep – painfully steep at times – ask Walmsley about his Western States 100 this year. However for those individuals who make it through the curve, raw speed coupled with specific training (i.e. big vert and trails) wins out the majority of the time therefore.
Doping makes it way to very under developed countries with far inferior postal services than Pike Peak. This neither proves nor disproves anything.
I feel it right to give the medals, the titles, and the money to those who play by the rules. Let me clarify that I have presented data and questions, not specific claims about Zach doping. Of which no one has come close to answering any of these questions.
I follow high school & NCAA cross country and track, pro track, road running, mountain running, ultra running, and have participated in all of these categories except pro track. I have never seen anyone improve as much as Zach has improved after spending 4 year running in college. Olympic marathoner Brian Sell stands out as someone who used hard work to make huge improvements. However he has a back story that many people can vouch for – he was extremely under developed in high school. His progression of times from senior year in college (sub 29 10k which is equivalent to 2:14 marathon) to a 2:10 marathoner is much less than Zach's progression.
I have very little to gain by learning the facts of Zach’s background – certainly not an ego boosting activity for me. We have a completely inadequate doping control system in pro track and a non-existent doping control system in ultra running. I feel it our obligation to patrol our own ranks.
Again, if there is a great back story on why Zach was so under developed in college – let’s hear about it. No one has offered the least bit here.
Sage, always enjoyed watching you race (occasionally lapping me at Bucknell), but your honest and thoughtful defense of Zach on here earned you a lifelong fan and supporter. Cheers.