also, Oregon won't send any good runners to Regionals because it's a long trip and not worth it if they're gonna go to Nationals too.
That sounds right; it's funny that NIRCA is basically allowing Oregon to have a team time trial in the "UO Running Club Race" (http://clubrunning.org/races/race_roster.php?race=414) to qualify their whole roster for nationals (no other teams have entered). They'll have to send at least someone to regionals so they can qualify as a team though. Their Ryan Jones is actually the top returner from XC nats last year (3rd), Kwan had a bad race at the 2015 champs. I think that race alone proves that Kwan isn't a lock for the win in a high-pressure scenario -- maybe his best bet is to gap the field early so it doesn't come down to a kick.
Ryan is a freak. Funny to finally read this thread as my club was planning on running their meet but they discouraged us from running it because it could jeopardize their nationals eligibility.