2016 NIRCA XC Thread (+ TrackBot NIRCA speed ratings)

NIRCA speed rating for athlete Max Petrosky:

Best Match: Maxwell Petrosky

Lock Haven Invitational 2016-09-24 8000 25:31.60 180.75

NIRCA speed ratings for team UC Davis:

Team: UC Davis

Runners: Nathan Kwan (M)

Speed Rating: 184.987

Runners: Adam Cobert (M)

Speed Rating: 181.771

Runners: Jon Horvath (M)

Speed Rating: 181.257

Runners: Clancy McConnell (M)

Speed Rating: 178.936

Runners: Blake Zufall (M)

Speed Rating: 174.214

Runners: Owen Lee (M)

Speed Rating: 165.999

Runners: Chris Meyers (M)

Speed Rating: 165.855

Runners: Christian Montenegro (M)

Speed Rating: 162.213

Runners: Eric Jones (M)

Speed Rating: 160.331

Runners: Ben Arbaugh (M)

Speed Rating: 154.562

Runners: Joseph Grovers (M)

Speed Rating: 148.667

Runners: Avery Kruger (M)

Speed Rating: 144.813

Runners: Noah Diamant (M)

Speed Rating: 143.968

Runners: Kyle Johnson (M)

Speed Rating: 138.613

Runners: Carlos Ortiz (M)

Speed Rating: 133.506

Runners: Venus Shabgahi (W)

Speed Rating: 128.344

Runners: Sid Bagga (M)

Speed Rating: 125.213

Runners: Samir Rahman (M)

Speed Rating: 123.427

Runners: Sally Keating (W)

Speed Rating: 118.167

Runners: Savannah Love (W)

Speed Rating: 108.549

Runners: Julia Cunniffe (W)

Speed Rating: 107.717

Runners: Andrew Lewis (M)

Speed Rating: 107.213

Runners: Kathie Paniagua-Urrutia (W)

Speed Rating: 102.272

Runners: Kiara Breadmore (W)

Speed Rating: 88.474

Runners: Jonathan Lau (M)

Speed Rating: 87.951

Runners: Angela Aguirre (W)

Speed Rating: 78.117

Runners: Hailey Falk (W)

Speed Rating: 35.184

Runners: Katie Hunsucker (W)

Speed Rating: 32.261

Runners: Regan Fry (W)

Speed Rating: 29.051

Runners: Miroslava Munguia (W)

Speed Rating: 24.558

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Thank your lucky stars Cal doesn't have a NIRCA team. They'd mess everyone up.

trackbot! NIRCAteam Binghamton University

TrackBot! NIRCA Mitchell Abrams

NIRCA speed ratings for team Binghamton University:

Team: Binghamton University

Runners: Jigar Gosalia (M)

Speed Rating: 176.552

Runners: Mitchell Abrams (M)

Speed Rating: 171.853

Runners: Zachary Malik (M)

Speed Rating: 167.12

Runners: Kyle Loftus (M)

Speed Rating: 159.557

Runners: Blane Bossung (M)

Speed Rating: 157.092

Runners: Christian Angelo (M)

Speed Rating: 153.93

Runners: Daniel Adrion (M)

Speed Rating: 149.892

Runners: Mark Richter (M)

Speed Rating: 141.356

Runners: Andrew Goldmann (M)

Speed Rating: 137.64

Runners: Derek Schuster (M)

Speed Rating: 135.44

Runners: Robert Mandracchia (M)

Speed Rating: 133.244

Runners: Juan Guzman (M)

Speed Rating: 132.709

Runners: Daniel Bostrom (M)

Speed Rating: 130.18

Runners: Peter Tomlinson (M)

Speed Rating: 127.357

Runners: Brent Kavaler (M)

Speed Rating: 125.4

Runners: David Williams (M)

Speed Rating: 120.3

Runners: Stephen Sandoli (M)

Speed Rating: 120.115

Runners: Luis Ferreira (M)

Speed Rating: 119.22

Runners: Danny Iadanza (M)

Speed Rating: 116.659

Runners: Collin McGloin (M)

Speed Rating: 108.685

Runners: Camille Bouvet-Boisclair (W)

Speed Rating: 104.25

Runners: Jacob Rigos (M)

Speed Rating: 104.04

Runners: Sebastian Morales (M)

Speed Rating: 101.82

Runners: Koonfai Xie (M)

Speed Rating: 100.569

Runners: Allison Corbo (W)

Speed Rating: 98.485

Runners: Thomas Avery (M)

Speed Rating: 90.9

Runners: Elise Dunshee (W)

Speed Rating: 89.295

Runners: Mike Richards (M)

Speed Rating: 84.58

Runners: Bethany Brown (W)

Speed Rating: 81.721

Runners: Julia Raab (W)

Speed Rating: 78.446

Runners: Brenden Faherty (M)

Speed Rating: 70.9

Runners: Erika Frees (W)

Speed Rating: 67.583

Runners: Michele Abatangelo (W)

Speed Rating: 67.25

Runners: Katerine Edwards (W)

Speed Rating: 64.425

Runners: Tyler Popp (M)

Speed Rating: 62.7

Runners: Olivia Janssen (W)

Speed Rating: 59.885

Runners: Jennifer Donohue (W)

Speed Rating: 59.457

Runners: Amanda Cook (W)

Speed Rating: 48.583

Runners: Annie Geiger (W)

Speed Rating: 37.458

Runners: Alexandra DeSantis (W)

Speed Rating: 35.922

Runners: Nora Croutier (W)

Speed Rating: 12.363

Runners: Jessica Gallery (W)

Speed Rating: 5.787

Runners: Caitlin Bomse (W)

Speed Rating: -16.083

Runners: Jaime Olsen (W)

Speed Rating: -16.083

Runners: Allison Battaglia (W)

Speed Rating: -27.081

Runners: Megan Hannahan (W)

Speed Rating: -29.089

Runners: Patricia Cuchelo (W)

Speed Rating: -54.45

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athlete Mitchell Abrams not found (or has no results this season)

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TrackBot! Kip Litton

TrackBot! PRs Kip Litton

Could not find / disambiguate Kip Litton

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If Davis fields a team at nationals this year, they will win. Their #1 Nathan Kwan just ran 23:55 for 8k at the capital cross challenge in Sacramento. They also had another 3-4 guys break 26:00 in the same race. Team average was something like 25low

reed wrote:

If Davis fields a team at nationals this year, they will win. Their #1 Nathan Kwan just ran 23:55 for 8k at the capital cross challenge in Sacramento. They also had another 3-4 guys break 26:00 in the same race. Team average was something like 25low

I just analyzed those results, and that course ran very fast. Kwan's race is still the top performance this year in NIRCA, and UC Davis is a strong favorite already. If they race Bronco, it will give a lot more information, when I can compare their times with a known course, and against Stanford's and likely Cal Poly's runners. I expect Oregon to give them a good race at Regionals, and Penn State on their "home course" at Nationals will be tough to defeat as well. Michigan still has not ran several of their supposed returning runners.

might be rojo wrote:

I just analyzed those results, and that course ran very fast. Kwan's race is still the top performance this year in NIRCA, and UC Davis is a strong favorite already. If they race Bronco, it will give a lot more information, when I can compare their times with a known course, and against Stanford's and likely Cal Poly's runners. I expect Oregon to give them a good race at Regionals, and Penn State on their "home course" at Nationals will be tough to defeat as well. Michigan still has not ran several of their supposed returning runners.

Bronco is a faster course than last week's, FYI. this was also their season opener, so Bronco could be even faster, although Kwan will not get into the A race so he likely won't run under 24min again.

also, Oregon won't send any good runners to Regionals because it's a long trip and not worth it if they're gonna go to Nationals too.

reed wrote:

also, Oregon won't send any good runners to Regionals because it's a long trip and not worth it if they're gonna go to Nationals too.

That sounds right; it's funny that NIRCA is basically allowing Oregon to have a team time trial in the "UO Running Club Race" (http://clubrunning.org/races/race_roster.php?race=414) to qualify their whole roster for nationals (no other teams have entered). They'll have to send at least someone to regionals so they can qualify as a team though. Their Ryan Jones is actually the top returner from XC nats last year (3rd), Kwan had a bad race at the 2015 champs. I think that race alone proves that Kwan isn't a lock for the win in a high-pressure scenario -- maybe his best bet is to gap the field early so it doesn't come down to a kick.

habs wrote:

That sounds right; it's funny that NIRCA is basically allowing Oregon to have a team time trial in the "UO Running Club Race" (http://clubrunning.org/races/race_roster.php?race=414) to qualify their whole roster for nationals (no other teams have entered). They'll have to send at least someone to regionals so they can qualify as a team though. Their Ryan Jones is actually the top returner from XC nats last year (3rd), Kwan had a bad race at the 2015 champs. I think that race alone proves that Kwan isn't a lock for the win in a high-pressure scenario -- maybe his best bet is to gap the field early so it doesn't come down to a kick.

that race has nothing to do with their ability to go to nationals. all you need to qualify is to send a full team to regionals.

reed wrote:

Bronco is a faster course than last week's, FYI. this was also their season opener, so Bronco could be even faster, although Kwan will not get into the A race so he likely won't run under 24min again.

also, Oregon won't send any good runners to Regionals because it's a long trip and not worth it if they're gonna go to Nationals too.

Bronco is faster, but just learning more about how fast the rest of the UC Davis runners are will inform me on how fast Kwan's performance was. Same goes for Regionals, but you are correct that Oregon will likely not field a strong team, since they have their own personal qualifier. I did think I had underrated the Pacific region, but at Nationals, the Pacific regional did not run very far off from what I would expect compred to the rest of the regions, so I'm reluctant to tinker with the raw data.

Also top returning runner is Rob Scanlon, the defending champion.

reed wrote:

that race has nothing to do with their ability to go to nationals. all you need to qualify is to send a full team to regionals.

Not according to the NIRCA site: "Each individual must have competed in at least one NIRCA-qualifying cross country meet prior to the cross country National Championship." (this applies to everyone in the race). So the top guys can just run the "UO Running Club Race" while they send a scrub team to regionals.

But yes, forgot that Rob is coming back for a 5th year which will be interesting. He ran 26:56 on the really tough Roy Griak course, Snyder assigned that the highest speed rating of the week (not including captial cross challenge). Seems like the ratings really like roy griak and MC5 though -- max petrosky's 25:31 at lock haven is only ranked 13th.

trackbot! NIRCA rob scanlon

NIRCA speed rating for athlete rob scanlon:

Best Match: Rob Scanlon

Roy Griak Invitational 2016-09-24 8000 26:56.2 190.71

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Lock Haven may be underrated, but it'll probably work itself out once more teams start running against each other. On the other hand the residuals after my rating assignment were pretty small, and it wasn't a difficult race to analyze. I always take the early season races with a grain of salt. This weekend's races will go a long way towards getting accurate rankings.

TrackBot! NIRCAteam UVA