I recall that South African journalist confirming caster is running the 4 and 8 and he said she will win both due to her advantage. She is doubling.
I recall that South African journalist confirming caster is running the 4 and 8 and he said she will win both due to her advantage. She is doubling.
formerD1 wrote:
When I was in 1:55 shape I could run a 51.x with minimal 400m specific training. Had I focused more on the 400m I am sure I could have done at least 1 second faster.
Hmm yeah I have an 800 PR of 1:55.42, and I ran 50.21 for 400 but could only manage 4:03.60 for 1500 (and 27:36 for 8k in XC) with mostly 800 specific training. It's weird though cause everyone has slightly different ranges...I knew a guy who went 3:56 for 1500, 9:16 3k steeply, 14:54 for 5000 and 25:10ish for 8k but never could break 2 in the 800, while I know another kid who ran 49.x, 1:51 low and 3:59 but somehow couldn't even break 30 min for 8k. Not sure what Caster is gonna do but either way she's got nasty range running 50.7, 1:55 and 4:01...still a 1/2 second slower than me over 400 though :P
rojo wrote:
What are Semenya's odds in the 800?
8 to 1 is pretty good.
Any HS coaches on here? What can the average HS 1:55 boy run? It might not be faster than felix though.
The mistake you're making is that Caster is not a 1:55 runner. That is what she has run. But, we all know her ability and fitness right now are at minimum 1:53.
Almost any 1:53 or 1:52 kid will run sub 50.
If we assume she can run 1:52-3 and 3:58, then that puts her in line with 48.5-49.0
It's not just about range and PRs. You also have to include the fact that she has to run 6 races in 7 days or something like that.
&YGU>?IBU5uyu9832 wrote:
It's not just about range and PRs. You also have to include the fact that she has to run 6 races in 7 days or something like that.
Well it kind of is actually because the range will give her the ability to have the strength run those races well and stay in one piece, while sustaining her speed.
coach d wrote:
I took a look and see Felix as 10/11 and Semenya at 17/10.
I think if I was Shaunae Miller (6/1 at .01 behind Felix) I would take that as an insult. And McPherson at 20:1. They're just voting for names they've heard of, and they haven't heard of Miller and McPherson.
Ha! Bookmakers never set odds based on names. They know more than you do . . . always, perhaps realizing Miller might not have timed her season correctly.
And Felix ran a world leader on a messed up ankle, and almost got on the 200 team as well where that ankle put her at exponentially more of a disadvantage than in the 400.
How about that girl from Texas, Oukio.
Her PR is 50.74. Breaking 50 is not a stretch. When was the last time you saw Caster look like she was going all out in anything but the last 50 meters of a race?
Now imagine if she really put 100% into the entire race.
1:52.xx and 47.xx is her's for the taking.
This is her 50.74 race video.
1. Totally relaxed most of the race.
2. Big margin of victory.
3. Not breathless after the race (you know the kind where you gave it 100% and are keeled over on the track gasping for air?)
I was good for a 50.x at 1:56, my 1:54 teammate was 49 high.
I would NOT take Caster over Felix. When in doubt I go for the 200-400m runner over the 400-800m
Keet wrote:
I was good for a 50.x at 1:56, my 1:54 teammate was 49 high.
I would NOT take Caster over Felix. When in doubt I go for the 200-400m runner over the 400-800m
+1. Spot on.
+2
Distance runners are always exaggerating their sprint speed to try to make believe they're fast (they're not). 800 times for most people are in the 2.2-2.35 times 400 times (with sprinters at the highest multiple). Since this creature (I will not refer to someone lacking uterus and ovaries at a young age as a woman) has run a 1500 time that identifies it as distance trained, I find it highly unlikely that it will run 50 flat or faster, and that is likely required to be in medal contention.
Bookmakers set odds based on how they believe the general public will bet. They want to get roughly equal amounts on both sides. That way the house can't lose. The expected outcome of the event is secondary.Unless they know the fix is in. . .
Mike in LA wrote:
Ha! Bookmakers never set odds based on names. They know more than you do . . . always, perhaps realizing Miller might not have timed her season correctly.
And Felix ran a world leader on a messed up ankle, and almost got on the 200 team as well where that ankle put her at exponentially more of a disadvantage than in the 400.
[quote]rojo wrote:
What are Semenya's odds in the 800?
-500 to win 800. Grabbed a futures sheet on way out of town. Felix is -220 , Miller is 7/2, then Caster at 8/1 in 400. They still have odds on many people who didn't even make team USA which I thought was strange. Guess its an auto win for the book if some guy off street bets on someone watching on tv like Dutch is 3/1. Tinsley is 13/2 by the way. I have the William Hill sheet from CalNeva if anyone is curious about other events.
I ran 49 high/1:57 in HS off injuries and little training, my endurance was shit at the time because I couldn't break 4:40 but I had friends with 1:57/4:2x 1600 who couldn't break 51.
Looks like she's only running the 800.