Can a recruiting class of 5 9:10 high school WIN NCAA

Russell Sandvold ran for Wisco. (Maybe you missed him because its Russell in TFRRS, not Russ.) Best championship XC result was 32:30 at GL Regionals finishing 73rd.

Even with that correction, the results are pretty amazing. Only 2 of 8 guys even ran at D1 Regionals. None ran at Nats.

I think this debunks the idea that you can win XC Nats with five 9:10 guys. Looking at these results, I doubt you could do it with five classes of five 9:10 guys per year.

Sure, in an ideal world it's possible. However, in reality, 2 of those guys will probably transfer/quit before their junior year, 2 will have injury ridden careers without much success, and if you're lucky, you'll have one guy stick around and have a decent career. Take it from me, had 5 guys in my class between 9:01 and 9:09. Never sniffed nats.

That doesn't say much for your coach. That is the problem with the NCAA system, coaches get hired by who they know, not by how well they coach.

How do you finish around 65th?

rojo wrote:

When I was coaching at Cornell, I had Sage Canaday finish in the 80s at NCAAs. He ran like 8:45 3k guy in HS so like 9:20. One of the Syracuse coaches came up to me and said something along the lines of ," You did a great job with him. We have the starts. There isn't a single American ahead

of him in the entire NCAA that was slower than him in HS."

A bold but false statement that I decided to investigate. 2007 Results, where Sage finished 83rd. Very respectable -

How about SIXTEENTH! Trent Hoerr from Illiinois, a 4:20/9:22 guy in high school -

In Sixty Sixth we have Odea standout and UP Pilot gem Michael Kilburg, with 4:20/9:20 in HS -

How many D1 runners participate in XC each year, who in HS ran 9:10 or faster? Must be a couple of hundred, right? As far as winning XC nationals, only the first 40 to 50 places "matter" in the hunt for the team title. So you could say that in any given year, a 9:10 or better guy has statistically maybe a one in 5 chance of being part of a national championship team (i.e., 40 or 50 out of a pool of a couple of hundred).

The point being, even if the entire first 50 places are composed of guys who ran 9:10 or faster, that doesn't imply that just because you ran 9:10 or faster, you will probably finish in the top 50, because the pool of 9:10 or faster guys is quite large.

Then consider that most of those 50 spots will be taken by guys who ran faster than "just" 9:10. Sure, good coaching will get some 9:10 guys to improve a good bit, but most 8:50 guys will also receive good coaching and are just as likely to improve.

There are seemingly many anecdotal stories of 9:10 or slower guys who over-achieved in college and were part of championship teams, but what are the odds that you will have 5 9:10 guys get, for example, places 11, 18, 22, 28, and 34, for a team score of 113, to win NCAAs in a year without a super-dominant team? Any one of those 5 places would be a huge achievement for a 9:10 runner. To have 5 guys on the same team do it in the same year is highly improbable.

Then add in the OP's stipulation (if I understood correctly) that these 5 basically WERE the entire XC team (i.e. it wasn't a team with 20 solid runners, of which these 5 rose to the top), the odds are extreme.

Stomper Bully wrote:

How many D1 runners participate in XC each year, who in HS ran 9:10 or faster? Must be a couple of hundred, right? .

After this I stopped reading. No sense in reading the meandering rant of an idiot, is it?

I had 3 teammates in my class run under 9:20 for 3200M in high school when I showed up to college (this is like 12 years ago now). I only ran 1:55 and 4:25 but had terrible training, by my sophomore year I could beat 2 of them in 8K cross but I got a lot better (like 25 8k mid).

Runner A went to a very good big public high school and did well in Florida. He ran like 70 - 80 miles a week in high school, and my first day I couldn't keep up with him for 7 mile easy run as a freshmen. But by spring of my freshman year I could torch him over 1500M and everything bad that could happen to a runner happened to him: got mono, then got hurt, then got kind of fat then just got burned out. I don't think he ever went under 15:00 for 5k.

Runner B had a historically good coach too and was from Illinois and went to a big school. He ran a lot in high school and did intervals / tempos / long runs etc but he stayed healthy. His PRs were like 3:56, 14:18 and like a 24:40 8k on cross. He had a pretty good career but his 5k progression was like Frosh 14:55, Soph 14:39, Junior 14:25 and Senior 14:18. It is hard to say he had a bad career (he was all conference but we were a smaller DI conference) and he always stayed healthy he just never really broke out. Remember 14:18 pace is actually was a good bit faster than his 3200 PR in high school. He stayed healthy every year and PRed and won some big races.

Runner C was a natural. He didn't even run cross country in the fall, he was a soccer player but still ran 9:14 at a tiny private high school in New England. Literally from the first tempo with this guy you could tell he was a freak. He got top 20 in our region and ran 23:40 8K and 13:50 in the 5k when it was all said and done.

Having seen the trials and tribulations of some of my teammates it would be extraordinarily difficult to win nationals with 5 9:10 runners. Runner B is a good example of how a lot end up: they PR and have good careers but just don't get really really elite. I don't think 5 14:20 5K guys even get you to nationals let alone win.

If your team gets the 5th, 10th, 20th, 30th and 50th team scorers that is 115 which maybe gets you on the podium. That is having multiple D1 All Americans on a roster.

mathamagic facts wrote:

Stomper Bully wrote:

How many D1 runners participate in XC each year, who in HS ran 9:10 or faster? Must be a couple of hundred, right? .

After this I stopped reading. No sense in reading the meandering rant of an idiot, is it?

Well, how many is it then, genius? If there are 50 or so 9:10 guys in HS each year, most of whom presumably run multiple years in D1, plus a fair-sized contingent of foreign runners who have run the equivalent, how many 9:10 guys compete in NCAA D1 XC each year?

Rojo was too generous with my hs PRs....I only ran 8:46 for 3km in hs and 4:09 for the 1500m (I'd say that's like 9:25/4:28)...correct me if i'm wrong on conversations though....

Also to Rojo's credit, I did run a 2:21 marathon that year as well and got the B standard of the Olympic Trials (when it was the slowest).

So you're telling me there's a chance...

And that was still an amazing progression from Trent Hoerr (note he was very close to making Footlocker finals in hs...like missed it by 2 spots). Again though, I believe what Rojo (and the other coach) said still holds true:Guys like Hoeer and Kilburg were faster than me in hs (I was a 9:25/4:27 guy).I'm actually pretty darn sure Kilburg was faster than 9:20 in hs as well... (note he had an amazing progression to running 28:20s on the track at UP though).

chubby checker - the twist wrote:

rojo wrote:

When I was coaching at Cornell, I had Sage Canaday finish in the 80s at NCAAs. He ran like 8:45 3k guy in HS so like 9:20. One of the Syracuse coaches came up to me and said something along the lines of ," You did a great job with him. We have the starts. There isn't a single American ahead

of him in the entire NCAA that was slower than him in HS."

A bold but false statement that I decided to investigate. 2007 Results, where Sage finished 83rd. Very respectable -

https://www.trackandfieldnews.com/index.php/category-archive/318-ncaa-xc-2007-men

How about SIXTEENTH! Trent Hoerr from Illiinois, a 4:20/9:22 guy in high school -

http://il.milesplit.com/teams/mtnhs/records

In Sixty Sixth we have Odea standout and UP Pilot gem Michael Kilburg, with 4:20/9:20 in HS -

http://parser.dyestat.com/search.jsp?athID=247804

TrackBot! VDOT 9:10 3200m

VDOT for 9:10 3.2km: 70.3

Equivalent race times based on VDOT:

Marathon: 02:22:34

Half marathon: 01:08:04

15K: 00:47:21

10K: 00:30:52

5K: 00:14:51

3Mi: 00:14:19

2Mi: 00:09:14

3200m: 00:09:10

3K: 00:08:33

1Mi: 00:04:19

1600m: 00:04:17

1500m: 00:03:59

I am a bot. Info:

http://habs.sdf.org/trackbot

mathamagic facts wrote:

Stomper Bully wrote:

How many D1 runners participate in XC each year, who in HS ran 9:10 or faster? Must be a couple of hundred, right? .

After this I stopped reading. No sense in reading the meandering rant of an idiot, is it?

The 100th-fastest high school 3200m runner of 2016 ran 9:08.17.

Portland at Griak???? 9:10 guys?

Portland roster with hs 3200 pr's. Pretty much 9:10 guys.

Jeff Thies- 9:04

Nick Hauger- 9:07

Tim Ball- 9:06

Stephen Mulherin- 9:17

Caleb Webb- 8:47

Timo Goehler-8:25 3k, (9:05 3200 estimate)

The only way to answer this would be take results from NCAA meet and add the places of the top 5 Seniors who ran around 9:10 and come up with a team score.

They didn't all graduate in the same year, but these 5 guys could put up a fighting chance at winning in a weaker year. I wouldn't say it's too crazy to think that a bunch of 9:10 guys could win if they had a good coach and a little luck.

Wesley Gallagher

H.S. - 9:08 2 miler

Now - 13:51 5k & 29:13 10k, multiple time national qualifer

Jon Green

H.S. - 9:20 - 9:25ish type guy

Now - 13:52 5k, 29:06 10k, multiple time national qualifier - 5th last year

Colin Bennie

H.S. - 9:07 2 miler

Now - 13:38 5k, 28:52 10k, multiple time national qualifier - 8th last year/ team champion

Scott Carpenter

H.S. - 9:25 2 miler

Now - 8:40 steeple, 14:06 5k, multiple time national qualifier

Joel Hubbard

H.S. - 9:13 2 miler

Now - 3:58 miler, 14:06 5k, multiple time national qualifier - 47th last year / team champion