If you train a sedentary man with elite potential, 3 months later what 5k can he run?

recognizer of the untalented wrote:

realistic wrote:

He wouldn't break 20 minutes. It takes thousands of miles to get the conditioning you need to run a decent time. Most people think it's about cardiovascular conditioning. That is a minor issue, but then again most people have no clue about what makes you a decent runner.

LOL. Have you broken 20 min yet?

Race ya.

based on this info and my own experience (~19, high 17s, low 15s)

off the couch, but maybe some activity such as hiking or casual soccer or basketball: 16-17 min

3 months training @25 mpw: low 15 min, maybe sub 15

3-8 years focused training with world class coaching, facilities, diet, trainers yadda yadda: 13

Your numbers aren't realistic. How fast would the top pro cyclists run a 5k with no running training? They wouldn't break 20 minutes, they would be in agony after just two miles a 7 minute mile pace.

andwhatsay you Aden wrote:

That's an extreme outlier and thus not something you could expect to happen again. Have you taken a college level statistics course? It helps.

Even among elites there is a normal distribution of achievement and it's not...off the couch and running WR 10Ks.

It would happen if more tried it.

James Koskei was over 30 and saw his neighbour getting rich. He started running and the next year was likely the top road racer in North America.

realistic wrote:

Your numbers aren't realistic. How fast would the top pro cyclists run a 5k with no running training? They wouldn't break 20 minutes, they would be in agony after just two miles a 7 minute mile pace.

Some would some wouldn't. Some would kill it and probably run 15, some would struggle to break 20 or 22.

I posted my own data as an example but will explain a little.

I didn't run competitively in high school, and barely ran at all, but I was active. Rode my bike in the summer but just casually and commuting, and not much during the school year; played pick up/gym rat basketball 2-4X a week; and participated in gym class 4X a week. Was about 5'8" and 125-130 lb. I ran a little here and there but not consistently and never more than 3 miles. I jumped onto the indoor track one January evening and ran 3 miles in a progression in about 18:30 (roughly 6:20, 6:10, 6:00) and it felt pretty moderate, about like a tempo run.

I am not talented, and at best was at the people here laugh at daily. PRd at low 15 some 10 years later after training for many years.

Take a talented Somali or Ethiopian or Hispanic or skinny white farm kid from the midwest at ag 17 - 20 and they'd blow away 20 minutes off the bat and a lot would be in the 17s if not faster. And a few months later at 25 miles a week, can easily see them doing 15s.

This old thread says that Abdi ran 15:05 or 15:10 in his first 5K untrained, and Said Aouita supposedly ran in the 14s in soccer cleats in his first:

http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=3574462

zzzz wrote:

This old thread says that Abdi ran 15:05 or 15:10 in his first 5K untrained, and Said Aouita supposedly ran in the 14s in soccer cleats in his first:

http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=3574462

untrained for 15 flat, unimaginable!!!!

he must be soccer player before

If it's any help:

I got back into running after substantial time off and went from a ~23:17 5k to a 16:35 5k in five months; mileage was not considerable (~20m a week after a month of minimal running and other supplemental cardio) and workouts weren't too strenuous in that time. I don't consider myself elite by any means, but if you have the physiology and history with the sport, big gains can be made with not a lot of effort.

Dont know my potential, but i will give my anecdotal evidence.

I ran well enough in high school to get offered a scholarship to run in college. I only ran about 20 miles per week in high school and no off season training. I was a contender for my state title soph-senior year.

After freshman year i was tired of running, so i quit. I ended up doing nothing but work, school, and video games for the next five or so years. I wasn't active in the least bit.

A friend knew i used to run and asked me to join them for a local 5k one weekend. I decided sure, why not. Wondered whati could do off of nothing. Wondered if i could even run the whole thing.

Turns out that not only did i beat my friend, who ran a little under 18, but i ran 17:18. I remember the time because it's sequential.

I decided to start running, but never could get myself to run through July (too hot) nor December & January (too cold). Over the next three years, I didn't race much either as i didn't want to compare myself to my old times and didnt want to spend the money on halfs.

By the third year, i was running 17-20 milers around 5:30 pace comfortably. I was tempoing 6-10milers under 5min pace, and could do 8x 400m with 2 min rest at 58-60.

I wasn't doing anything too crazy. I was doing about 30s 40s and then 50s. I was pushing some weeks toward the end of those 3 years at 70. Those were when i was doing the 17-20mile runs.

But i haven't run much in the past few years. Just got busy with work and life. And just started a family. Think its going to be a while before i can train on a regular basis again.

Just my story.

I know after 3 months i could probably run around 1630, so i would say probably around 16 for someone with sub 13 potential.

So you ran these kinds of elite workouts on your own (yes, 6 to 10 tempos miles at sub 5 is elite level). Off of moderate mileage. Did you ever race, or did you just do the workouts for posterity and later internet forum posting?

Ojjjjj wrote:

15:05

i say 15:04

Most of you guys are really picturing this wrong. All of this anecdotal evidence isn't worth much because nobody here was ever a sub 13 talent. Think of it this way: pick your favorite East African great-Geb, Bekele, Kipchoge, whomever. Now, imagine that this guy is still skinny (bmi 20) but he has never done running-specific training. But, it's still Geb or Bekele! Do you really think that a guy like that couldn't break 15 after 3 months of training? These guys were BORN able to do that crap.

realistic wrote:

Your numbers aren't realistic. How fast would the top pro cyclists run a 5k with no running training? They wouldn't break 20 minutes, they would be in agony after just two miles a 7 minute mile pace.

No. Lance Armstrong broke 20 dumb dumb

LOL because they came out of their mothers womb running a 15 min 5k

Fellas, come on wrote:

Most of you guys are really picturing this wrong. All of this anecdotal evidence isn't worth much because nobody here was ever a sub 13 talent. Think of it this way: pick your favorite East African great-Geb, Bekele, Kipchoge, whomever. Now, imagine that this guy is still skinny (bmi 20) but he has never done running-specific training. But, it's still Geb or Bekele! Do you really think that a guy like that couldn't break 15 after 3 months of training? These guys were BORN able to do that crap.

OL because they came out of their mothers womb running a 15 min 5k

What if bekele had bmi 30. Woulf he still break 15 for 5k after 3 months

Not everyone wants to be a professional athlete. I know i had the ability to be, but i prefer doing something that allows me to do other things than run.

I did enjoy training, but other things in life come up that are more important.

I never asked u to believe me. I dont care about accolades. I don't boast about this. If someone asks me randomly about it, i will tell them. It was relevant to this discussion so i posted anonymously.

I ran my first 5k in 18:08 on a hilly course on no training other than occasional weekend pickup football games. I was 18 and pretty slender at the time though. I remember being pissed that some 40 year old type passed me at the end :). I also had decent innate footspeed which could compensate for less endurance. I never broke 16 minutes but some of that could be because I ended up focusing on the middle distances when I got more serious.

Most innately elite people who are lean (as the OP stipulated), should be able to run under 17 off the couch. Although I've read there are some elite people who are elite because they are "super responders" to training. They may not initially run as fast but should improve dramatically.

Both groups should be under 15 after 3 months.

19:58 1st race after 2 weeks of jogging and sedentary previously

16:50 3 months later (running 30 mpw)

15:00 15 months after my 19:58 (running 45-55 mpw)

13:40 6 years after my 19:58 (running 70-90 mpw)