chances for a BQ? good? bad? Indifferent?

From my point of view, it looks you're running your workouts too fast for your fitness level, so after awhile you have to walk to catch your breath. I'm training for 3:20 right now, so a couple minutes slower than your goal. Ran a half marathon a couple weeks ago in 1:37 with some fuel left in the tank because it was a workout not my goal race. In all my training so far I've only run a handful of sub 7 miles during all my training. Easy runs 8-9.5 minutes, tempos 7-8 minutes, long runs ~8.5 minutes with a fast finish in the 7s for the last few miles, don't count walking my dog as training.

Don't count time spent walking towards your weekly mileage. Better to run 9 miles at 8.5 pace than half mile run/walks at 7.5.

yes to this. much more running.

frankly if you are talking about walking at all, then you aren't going to qualify for boston. especially if you are walking for training.

i have stopped to walk at points in a marathon i BQ'ed but usually if i stop to walk, i ain't getting a BQ today (and i have run 7 BQs, 3 under 3:00). somedays i have it, others i don't. but walking is never part of the plan.

Actually, it has little to do with "catching my breath" as to why I walk. I use "timing points" as goals and as I plan to run to those timing points, I get the time in those points. While I understand the running more aspect, my interest is piqued about those of you who run and put down the walking. If you are in a city with a lot of traffic lights, and say, you stop for 1.5 to 2 minutes, is it fair to credit yourself with a certain time as well? would you not feel de facto "fresher" because of these stops? With walking, in many ways, I view it the same way. How do you see that as different?

AlsoinMI wrote:

From my point of view, it looks you're running your workouts too fast for your fitness level, so after awhile you have to walk to catch your breath. I'm training for 3:20 right now, so a couple minutes slower than your goal. Ran a half marathon a couple weeks ago in 1:37 with some fuel left in the tank because it was a workout not my goal race. In all my training so far I've only run a handful of sub 7 miles during all my training. Easy runs 8-9.5 minutes, tempos 7-8 minutes, long runs ~8.5 minutes with a fast finish in the 7s for the last few miles, don't count walking my dog as training.

Don't count time spent walking towards your weekly mileage. Better to run 9 miles at 8.5 pace than half mile run/walks at 7.5.

I use timing points too. I try to run 8 miles in 56 minutes. I don't generally stop my watch unless something really stops me. I would never wait 1.5-2 minutes at a light. Maybe 30 sec tops and again I would just let my watch run.

That's why I wouldn't differentiate between running and walking. You covered however many miles in however many minutes and seconds.

You can view the training however you want, but running consistently is most important to becoming a better runner. Walking is a different thing. It has its role but its playing way too much of a role for you.

This makes sense, but about a little more than a month ago, I posted about my 8.16 miles in 60 minutes on a flat treadmill with no walking, and the feedback I got was simply, get off the mill and run outside. Now, wouldn't the fact that I was capable -of- this at that time show that, when I desire a stream of conscious running, I can do so?I understand where a lot of you are coming from, but sometimes it gets confusing.

Marco Brolo wrote:

I use timing points too. I try to run 8 miles in 56 minutes. I don't generally stop my watch unless something really stops me. I would never wait 1.5-2 minutes at a light. Maybe 30 sec tops and again I would just let my watch run.

That's why I wouldn't differentiate between running and walking. You covered however many miles in however many minutes and seconds.

You can view the training however you want, but running consistently is most important to becoming a better runner. Walking is a different thing. It has its role but its playing way too much of a role for you.

Well yes you should get outside but keep doing that 8 miles in 60 minutes. If you want to throw in 1 minute walk in the middle go for it. But the goal should be to get to a point where you are running consistently and not being tired.

It's great the run walk method helped you get things started but to get a BQ you need to mostly run.

I don't run anywhere that has 1.5-2 minutes stops. I don't "credit" myself much of anything I just do my workouts. If i'm doing a structured intervals which it looks like the pattern of your run/walking is, then it's written out as an interval workout and I acknowledge to myself that the pace is probably quicker than i would run straight through. Example: 6x800 at Pace X does not mean that I say I can run Pace X for 3 miles. It means I can run Pace X for 800m six times with time to catch my breath in between. Not to mention the fact that the "catch my breath" portions are even done at a jog, not a walk.Sorry figured your run/walk was arbitrary because your timing points seemed arbitrary. Why did you pick a 3:22/0.47 interval? To get back to your original question, I ran 8 miles in sub-56min outside, around curves, with no breaks a few weeks back, and I would not say I'm in 3:15 marathon shape right now. So, right now, you are probably not in 3:15 marathon shape. Maybe you can get there, but your training seems weird and depends too much on walking to reliably BQ IMO.If you're capable of 'stream of concious running' which you've demonstrated, then why are you doing anything else? You're making it to confusing on your own: Just run. Follow one of the well known plans (higdon, hanson, pfitz, etc), if you can't hit the paces or distances it prescribes your speed goal is too lofty and you should slow down to hit the distances with all running first, and the pace will come.

While this may all be true, I have also done other things that lead me to believe that there *is* a possibility. I have not once made a guarantee, but for me to believe that it is not a possibility would be unreasonable to myself.

Last year, as I stated, I did a 19:35 at the Carlsbad 5000. This was only part of the equation.

This would be more like interval 5Ks, if you will as it was part of an event called the "All Day 20K"

As a result, my 5Ks were:

1 (7:00am) 19:35

2 (8:05am) 20:42

3 (8:42am) 21:40

4 (9:23am) 23:11

The collective time here, at 1:25:09 reflected an average pace of 6:51 split over 4 5Ks in a 2:30 time period.

As for why I picked the 3:22/.47, the answer to this is simple. I was entering an area with a lot of traffic lights. I live in a Southern California suburb (San Marcos, CA--pop. 90,000 (appr.) where there is now a light almost every 1/4 mile. Therefore, why was it that I stopped it at .47? I crossed the street. I do not cross against traffic and take my life in my hands. I can hedge time for this--my life is more important. Sometimes, I throw walking in because if I am going to be on a stretch of road with six lights or more, gauging accurate time would be worthless.

I tried once. On a 7.2 mile stretch, I was somewhere in the 50-56 or less or more, but it was hard to tell because there were more than 6 minutes of lights.

I hope this helps

Again, never said impossible. Said you weren't there now and it will take a lot of work. The times you listed below indicate a significant slow down with each 5k. You're saying you ran "6:51" pace, but miles 9.3-12.4 were run at 7:30 pace, even with rest breaks. This big a difference is not good. Either your ability to evenly pace yourself is bad, or your aerobic base is bad (because you are not running enough).Your last 5k during miles 9.3-12.4 was below BQ pace, and a marathon still has 14 miles left at that point. Was your recent half marathon also with a slowdown over the second half? I think to run a 3:15 marathon you need to figure out to run even splits over a large distance. Another data point: if you look at the McMillan calculator and see that your first 5k time should be good enough to run 3:10 with proper training, but if you fade hard in runs over 10 miles, and can't run the 1:30 half marathon they have projected it indicates lack of aerobic base. Speed is not your problem. Conclusion still = run more.https://www.mcmillanrunning.com/results?hours=&minutes=19&seconds=35&distance=5000m&goalDistance=Marathon&ghours=&gminutes=&gseconds=

Ike Unker wrote:

As a result, my 5Ks were:

1 (7:00am) 19:35

2 (8:05am) 20:42

3 (8:42am) 21:40

4 (9:23am) 23:11

The collective time here, at 1:25:09 reflected an average pace of 6:51 split over 4 5Ks in a 2:30 time period.

Dude why did you make this thread? You won't accept honest estimates of your chances and you seem unwilling to accept constructive advice on how to reach your goal.

You obviously just want affirmation that you can BQ with out changing your training. So, sure, your chance of BQ is 100%. Now you can end this thread. Hope youre satisfied.

P.S. - I looked up San Marcos. It is not densely populated. You can probably find a better place to run.

P.P.S - 8/10, I bit.

This is not the case. What I did was asked people to look at my training and to certainly evaluate it, but also to look more into my training and working with it within the matrix where my training has been similar over the course of the last several years.There have been a lot of people who have offered a lot of support. However, it is natural for people to balk at suggestions that simply suggest a switch rather than trying to work with my established methods of training at all.Those whose suggestions I have taken and appreciated (which I have expressed this) are those who have taken some of the attributes that work and tried to work with those. I have not said I am unwilling to accept anything nor have I even implied it. You are presumptuously gauging what I will and will not accept by maybe 40 posts, which in a thread leading toward a goal, is not a whole lot.Now, my problem is with you trying to devalue this by considering this trolling. This is, and always a serious inquiry about my chances and what I would have to do. And, you would also be happy to know in yesterday's workout, I kept some of the "superfluous" mileage off the log. This would suggest listening to people, would it not?Do NOT patronize me, dude. You offer no suggestions except snark. I do listen to people, but I do not have to listen to this.Your snarky post is not welcome in this discussion.Say what you will. Unless it's constructive, I will not accept it. Don't preach about constructivity when your very tone is negative.Mike

Actually, yes, in the most recent half, there was a slowdown....my first 6 miles were split at 45:05 (7:32 pace)this leaves the last 7.1 miles at 56:05 (7:54 pace)I agree with the more running part, which is something I will continue to work on. But, since you seem to know a lot timewise, what I would like to know then is what should my even pace be and sustainable for how long to reflect a chance to BQ, so that I would know at what point to do attempt the BQ.Also, let me send you this link to the course map at La Jolla and let you decide how this compares to, say flatter ones, so that maybe I can accurately know where I am.Somehow, unless I am wrong, I do not think a 1:41 at la Jolla would be the same as at other places. http://www.lajollahalfmarathon.com/Event_Information/Course_Map.htmI hope this is helpful in some way.Mike

Instead of just eyeballing La Jolla to compare it to "flatter ones", just run a flatter one in a few weeks. Or months. Or whenever you're ready.

That is a tough half marathon but it is maybe a couple minutes added. So maybe it was more like a 1:38?

I would say if you can get down to a 1:30 half marathon, you should feel confident going for the BQ.

I'll echo Marco Brolo...forget the name of the site, but there's a website that shows estimated differences in finishing time based on the difficulty of a marathon. I was playing around with it awhile back and even for a 3.5 hour marathoner the differences between a pancake flat, no turn course like Bayshore Marathon in Michigan is ~3-4minutes different than a big hill course like Big Sur. Figure it's half the time cut for half the race (even though it's probably even less because it gets harder than twice as hard for twice as far) and you've got a couple minutes for being on a harder half marathon course. You may also have a small improvement by going out a little slower and maintaining pace more evenly, but either way I don't think you can get anywhere near 1:30 based solely on course difficulty. 11 minutes is 50s per mile for a half.

Ike Unker wrote:

...

I agree with the more running part, which is something I will continue to work on. But, since you seem to know a lot timewise, what I would like to know then is what should my even pace be and sustainable for how long to reflect a chance to BQ, so that I would know at what point to do attempt the BQ.

...

You're not asking me, but I think you need to reach the point where you can do a good, solid block of miles at your desired marathon pace, without drop-off to be confident that you can go for the time.

In your situation, if you are targeting a 3:15 marathon, your average mile pace needs to be 7:26. Thus, I would target being able to do an 18 mile run with 2 miles build up, then 14 miles at your goal pace, or a little faster (WITH NO DROP OFF) and then 2 miles to gradually cool down. If you can do that 18 mile run and hold the pace the whole middle 14 miles, you should be pretty confident you are in the frame.

In that situation, I would actually target a little faster than MP... say 7:15 to 7:20...

Interesting...

I ran 1:39:00 in 2018 on 30 mpw (peak of 38) and 3:24 in 2019 on 37 mpw (peak of 61), but average over 22 weeks was only 37. Last 12 weeks I averaged 43 mpw. My 5k times are not even close to yours but we run about the same for the full/half.

I lack speed but have decent endurance!

I think he could have run 1:36/3:22 with consistent training. He has good 5k speed (19:35, it's even faster than me right now--I'd guess I'm 20 high in good weather. Ran 21:34 TT solo in heat a few weeks ago) but would probably need to get up to 55 mpw with Pfitz 18/55, and drop walking completely unless it is for a complete shakeout AFTER the cooldown run (like when doing stretching).