Mary Cain 9:23 3k season opener. Is this a good or bad sign??

I was there - after the race she didn't seem rattled or anything - just walked around after, talking to her coach (not alsal). Judging by her demeanor the race was not a disappointment. So maybe it wasn't an all out event.

In XC, if I'm not mistaken, her first race was very mellow, just a rustbuster, and then her second race was much stronger. Maybe she is following that pattern here too and at say the NB GP in Boston she'll get closer to a 10/10ths effort.

just making stuff up here, but maybe alsal suggested she run the fist 1000 at race speed and then just tempo the rest. To get a little used to runnign on tired legs but not do any damage or die.

I imagine if she wanted to race, then she would have been in Boston tonight.

Pangolin wrote:

Starting to look like a Georgie Clarke career arc.

Your post inspired me to do some research on Clarke (DOB June 3, 1984).

1997 4:24.96 - age age 12!!!

1998 4:17.53 - age 13.

1999 4:12.51 - age 15 (Came after bday)

2000 4:06.77 - age 15

2001 4:08.91 - age 16

2002 4:09.70 - age 17

2003 4:13.57 - age 19

2004 4:08.60 - age 20

2005 4:06.50 - age 21

So Clarke improved steadily until age 15 when she ran 4:06.77. She then PRd again at age 21 but barely.

Here is Cain's progression (DOB is May 3, 1996)

2011 4:23.59 - Age 15.

2012 4:11.01 - Age 16

2013 4:04.62 - Age 17

2014 4:06.34 - Age 18

2015 4:09.08 - Age 19

how far ahead of the competition was she?

Her Dad works across the street maybe she was killing time before doing to dinner with him at Peter Walsh's place around the corner?

I actually talked to Mary after her race and she said that she just decided to do the 3k on Tuesday, so I think she jumped in at the last minute to see where her fitness was at and get a good workout in. Obviously she wanted something closer to 9min, but was running totally by herself without anyone to pull or push her. This is just a starting point on which to build. I did notice that she was running as "Unattached."

I'm in agreement with ROJO here.

Seems crazy to think that this girl just 2-3 years ago was the next star and next 'hope' for the US women. Now who knows if she'll even still be running at a competitive level in 2020.

This is why I think these young girls should always go to college and go through the college system. I know the fears of over-racing and three seasons per year, etc. But there are good enough coaches out there that are developing some of these young stars for their careers after college.

Jenny went through the college system and came out fine. As did Coburn. As did Rowbury. As did many others that make up our US World and Olympic teams.

Seb Coen wrote:

Why hasn't anybody suggested Cain switching coaches to Aden? Obviously doing all of her workouts with a 3:56 girl wasn't enough. I think being on the heals of a 3:50 runner would result in impressive performance in no time.

Perhaps Drew Hunter should start training with Asbel Kiprop...that would be the best way for him to improve.

Groot wrote:

Those splits are not encouraging. If she had gone a steady 3:05/km, then ok, a good effort workout. But she died significantly at the end - her fitness obviously is not where it needs to be, and even if she's running as a workout, she's not in shape.

The elephant in the room: she has a lovely figure for a normal women, but for an elite runner she's very pear shaped - soft in the middle and large hips. She's perfectly fine for a regular college student, but for an athlete she seems to still be adjusting to a changed body and time is running out this year.

Someone earlier posted that the splits were something like 3:02, 3:09, 3:12. There's a difference between not going faster because you can't (inoptimal fitness) and not going faster because you chose not to. Isn't it possible that she saw that no one would be challenging for the lead, and just said to herself, "Why am I working this hard right now?" and slowed down on purpose?

I really don't see how "time is running out this year." It's still January. Sure, time might be running out for World Indoors, but you said "this year," implying Olympic discussion. She has plenty of months to get ready for that.

kmaclam wrote:

Middle distance guy wrote:

Run all by herself lapping the rest of the field.

Not sure if she was tempoing or running all-out. Splits were approximately 3:02 - 3:09 - 3:12.

I must be getting old. Back in the day, I don't EVER remember questioning whether a track athlete was tempoing OR running all out. It would have been ludicrous to even suggest...

bingo.

also, heard she was NOT wearing a NOP kit.

optional wrote:

This is why I think these young girls should always go to college and go through the college system. I know the fears of over-racing and three seasons per year, etc. But there are good enough coaches out there that are developing some of these young stars for their careers after college.

I agree...the "damage" our collegiate system does is way overblown. There are plenty of coaches who could have handled working with Mary Cain.

She was wearing a NOP kit. See link in OP. https://twitter.com/ArmoryNYC/status/692885218223484929

But that suggests she entered this race seeking a victory, which makes no sense. She would have known going into the race that there wouldn't likely be anyone challenging here and for a runner of her accomplishment this wouldn't be a cherished win. Wouldn't the only explanation for her running be to see how fast she could run?That said, who knows, right? Maybe it's been a while and she felt like lacing up some spikes. Maybe she did a hard workout before or afterwards? It seems to me though that the reason to run this was to get a sense of what time she could run for 3000m, and she got it. Whether it was what time she could run for 3000m as part of a workout; as a full effort; before a workout; going hard for 1k then relaxing...we can't know.

another possibility wrote:

Someone earlier posted that the splits were something like 3:02, 3:09, 3:12. There's a difference between not going faster because you can't (inoptimal fitness) and not going faster because you chose not to. Isn't it possible that she saw that no one would be challenging for the lead, and just said to herself, "Why am I working this hard right now?" and slowed down on purpose?

Interesting. My gut was right that the arc is similar so far, with Georgie peaking 2 years earlier but Mary two seconds faster. Mary was also much better at 3000/2-mile, but I'm not sure how much Clarke even tried those.

It will be an interesting year.

Alexa debuts tomorrow at Dempsey's ILLEGAL track...lol.

Pangolin wrote:

Starting to look like a Georgie Clarke career arc.

Wow!

That's what I was thinking,

Georgie ran he best as teenager.

I see your point, but if she knew going in that no one would be challenging her (and, therefore, that she'd be solo-ing), why not just find out how fast you can run by just running a fast 3000m in practice?

She'll be retired, chubby, and and popping out babies within 5 years.

If this year's goal is to make the Olympic Team, then yes time truly is running out with Rowbury, Simpson and Martinez in their prime and many other contenders on their heels. The US women are the strongest 1500 group in the world so yeah, for Mary to make the team would require a quantum leap in a few months. If that doesn't happen then Mary's looking at a year like last year -- running substandard times at minor meets -- very publicly backsliding. Don't think that would make her, her camp or NIke very happy.

kmaclam wrote:

Middle distance guy wrote:

Run all by herself lapping the rest of the field.

Not sure if she was tempoing or running all-out. Splits were approximately 3:02 - 3:09 - 3:12.

I must be getting old. Back in the day, I don't EVER remember questioning whether a track athlete was tempoing OR running all out. It would have been ludicrous to even suggest...

I looked up many of Pre's results. Plenty of his low key meets were run in very slow times. So was he going all out in these races?