Dark Horses for 2016 Olympic Marathon Trials

A long-shot would be 2:15 runner Malcolm Richards - 1:03.26 at Houston in January, up to 120-30 miles per week since then, healthy all year, almost got Phil Reid at the PA XC champs.

Johnny Crain

I realize this is just an interview and he is spitting out numbers, but WHO (other than Meb or Ritz) is going to run 2:08?????

http://www.flotrack.org/coverage/252589-Track-Season-on-FloTrack-2016/video/807067-Matt-Llano-on-new-marathon-PB-in-Berlin-and-training-for-LA-2016#.VmDpVHarSM9

I get that you need to shoot high, but come on man. You've said sub 2:10 for 2/3 marathons now and haven't been CLOSE.

I dont think anyone is a shoe in.

Ritz is he is healthy and has a good day obviously can be up there.

Same thing for Meb, but again he has to have a good day.

Hall is a big ?, I know everyone is counting him out, but if there is anyone that can come back and run a 2:09 it is Hall.

Puskedra had a great day in Chicago and may be able to duplicate that effort.

Kibet has a big up side and seems capable of a sub 2:10.

Llano seems to capable of something around 2;10 as well.

Estrada on paper seems like he should be able to run 2:10 or faster. However as we know there are a number of runners on the world scene that have run a fast half and it never translated to a fast marathon.

I think the pace will be fast from the gun as there are just too many guys who have nothing to loose and will not let it be turned into a 20 mile tempo with a 10k race.

Chelanga is another that has the potential to run very fast, although he is untested at this distance.

It is going to be one heck of a race, hopefully it will be streamed live and be good coverage.

I ran Bo Waggoner's calculator and determined that Bo Waggoner will make it.

whatever man wrote:

A long-shot would be 2:15 runner Malcolm Richards - 1:03.26 at Houston in January, up to 120-30 miles per week since then, healthy all year, almost got Phil Reid at the PA XC champs.

Guys like Richards are the reason they have the trials (along with the obvious event elements of the race). A guy who qualifies with a 2:15 could conceivably run an even better race at the trials with increased training. That's why I originally listed Ashe and Harvey, who have been maintaining insane training/racing schedules for a few months now, presumably with the ultimate goal of peaking at the trials.

How many American men have already hit the Olympic standard? Sub-2:17, top 10 in a gold label race or top 20 at WC in 2015. How about women? Sub-2:42 or the other ways.

My dark horse is Tim Young from Fredericksburg VA. He has been running well in all the local races, he could be the one that surprises everyone.

I think people are underestimating just how good the top few guys are. Realistically, there are just a very small handful of guys with any shot at making the team. Just cause someone is running well locally doesn't mean they can go take down Meb/Ritz/etc. A guy who has run 2:15 and is maybe capable of 2:12-2:14 is going to look like an absolute stud on any local/regional level. That said, even 2:12 is worlds away from 2:09. I'm all for surprises and upsets, but I think people are digging a bit too deep for this one. The OT Marathon might not require sub 2:10 to make the team, but it sure as heck will require sub 2:10 fitness on that day.

1. Ritz

2. Meb

3. One of the following athletes: Puskedra, Estrada, Chelanga, Eggleston.

Here are the guys I'd consider "dark horses" to make the team (in the sense that they actually could make the team if everything goes right on the day):

Vail, Richie, Ward, Pennel, Kibet.

That's it. 10 guys, with 6 having a real shot at it. 11 if you want to put Hall down as the ultimate wildcard, but I really don't see that happening (unfortunately, because I am a big Hall fan).

I'd agree with your post just about exactly, except I think Meb will win. He ran 2:08:xx not so long ago, and is by far and away the best marathon racer we have, and he is as consistent as it goes.

Excellent analysis. it will require sub 2:10 fitness to make the team. However if the pace is not fast for the first half or so, there are guys who can run in the 2:12 range that may gamble and take off. But with that said I can't see Meb or Ritz or any of the other experienced guys let anyone get away early on so I think the pace will be fast from the gun. Meb said the course is very fast so we could see 2:08-2:09 efforts to make the team.

I am also a Hall fan and would like to see some of the old magic again however he has not produced anything near what he was capable of in 2012 since 2012 and four years is a long time.

It will be interesting to see how Kibet approaches this race.

Vail is just getting over another stress fracture and will only have about 12 weeks of training going into the trials. Realistically, not sure how much of a chance he'll have.

I was also surprised at the OP - how could you mention guys like Ashe/Harvey without putting Tim Ritchie in there?? Guy ran 61:23 SOLO in Philly. The only thing that concerns me about him is that his mileage has always been low. I remember reading an article that said he peaked at 75mpw for his last marathon. Not sure if that will be enough to translate his great half to the full.

One for each ring wrote:

Cabada

I second this one - Cabada ran a 2:15 in Chicago (3rd Amercian), but it wouldn't surprise me to see him run at least a 2:12 in a faster race. I know 3 minutes is a big jump but everyone who saw the results of that race knew it was slower than usual without the pacers.

Wietecha is one I would love to do well - as far as I know, he'll be running at the trials. He ran a 2:17 in Chicago, though following his training, he did look like he was in sub 15 shape going into it. Since then, however, he hasn't been running as much, so who knows what his plans are.

Kara

Maegan Krifchin

Matt Llano

Eggleston seems like a great pick to me. His progression over the years has been very steady, in interviews he seems to think his workouts have pointed to sub 2:10 fitness, and his race results are getting closer and closer to that being a reality. Just a feeling I guess, but I really think we'll be running for us in Rio.

Jason Rahm

Jon Grey. Former Team Minnesota guy that went 27:59 on the track this year and then moved to Boulder in August and is being coached by Lee Troop.

I agree with the above poster that only around 10 guys have a realistic shot at this team. There is a real difference in talent between most of the guys who have a realistic shot at the team and the also-rans--that's just reality. This isn't 2004 where a Trent Briney can almost make the team. When you look at the top tier, it's mostly guys have have been the best of the best at the high school, collegiate, and professional levels--look at the 2012 team and their achievements at all levels. Does anyone know if Bobby Curtis is still training? He ran 2:11 last year in Chicago but has been quiet since. That's a guy who was one of the best in the nation in HS, NCAA Champ, 27:24 10k, 61 min half marathoner, training with arguably the most accomplished marathon coaches in the country. Puskedra is in the same category--8:46 2 miler in HS, many time NCAA All-American, 61 min half while still in college, 2:10 at Chicago. There are just too many "talented" guys like that for the darkhorse guys to have to jump over to make this team in my opinion. But that's why they run the race.

Max. King. Surprise 3rd place finish.