Are we giving Ches too much benefit of the doubt?
I have no doubt that he will win (again), but also have a nagging feeling that someone (Knight?) will put up a great fight.
Last time we assumed someone would win easily, Ches and Kithuka THUMPED Lalang. (But then we have assumed Ches will win everything since then).
So, will it be close?? Will Ches have to work, or will he just crank from ~400 out with a fast last 2k?
King Ches vs. The Field
College Running
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Over / under 5 seconds margin of victory for Ed.
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Cheserek is not invincible, but there's no one this year who's even remotely capable of beating him. Who would do it? Anthony Rotich isn't that good at xc, Patrick Tiernan is fast, but has never shown any ability to beat Cheserek, Sean McGorty has faced Cheserek several times and lost to him every single time (why does he wait for the kick every time? His kick is nothing special), and Knight has barely been ahead of McGorty in races, and has proven himself to be quite mortal.
The only two runners who have shown they're a cut above everyone in the NCAA other than Cheserek are Marc Scott, and Tommy Curtin. Two people who no one but the most ardent fans knew about 2 months ago. And you think they're going to beat Edward "how many NCAA titles now?" Cheserek? Seriously? They're both great runners, but they're not going to beat Cheserek when he's on his game, like he certainly will be.
I think Curtin isn't going to commit to the tactics that let him beat Cheserek once, as he knows it's suicidal in a field like this. The pace is relatively fast, but not too quick--there'll be a big pack at 8k, when Cheserek will detonate and win easily. Tiernan, Knight, or McGorty for 2nd. Colorado wins. -
Tiernan FTW. He will wear Ches out and break him. Once there's a separation it'll be over.
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The advantage that Tiernan has is that his team did not qualify (doesn't have to worry about team points and can just go for the win). It seems that he tested himself at regionals to see how he would do alone at a fast pace. If conditions are not too windy, who knows...
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I see Ches winning this but he can be challenged by:
Curtin: has beaten him once and has the ability to do it again for sure and will definitely challenge the king but my guess is he will place 2nd or 3rd after being outckicked by Ches and possibly Rotich
Rotich and/or Koech (maybe working together one of them going out lightning fast forcing ches to go with or risk having what happened at pre nats again and the other holding back waiting for them to die. Although the race will be going out faster than it would in previous years because of the course being much more narrow and harder to pass in the middle to late race)
Tiernan (hasnt been challenged too much this year but also has nothing to lose)
I dont see anyone from cuse stanford or CU going after Ches in order to preserve there chances for a team title and not want to risk blowing up 8k in
Marc Scott also has the ability to challenge Ches but I dont like his chances as much as Curtin or Rotich.
my bet is that it will be close and Ches wont win by more than 5 seconds. There are plenty of people who have the ability to challenge him but it all comes down to who is feeling ballsy enough to do it on race day and follow through -
Koech FTW
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There's only a lightning strike's chance that someone beats Cheserek. The reason is consistency.
Why has "no one but the most ardent fan" heard of Curtain or Scott before? Because they do not have the same consistency or championship pedigree.
Even when Ches has been beaten in a championship, it's been by a few strides and after a double or triple.
If Ches is healthy he wins. Emerging talents will still be emerging. -
I think that Curtin will end up performing like Soratos did at outdoor nats last year. He'll change his tactics to just stay with the leaders and he won't have a chance at beating ches again. His only chance will be to try and jump the field like he did at Pre nats. But he'll place top 10 for certain. And Scott will probably kick to top 5.
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Also, remember that Rotich's best nationals performance was on this course 3 years ago. It's flat, tight and fast which favors him. Last year amounted to a long 2k kick for the whole field which benefitted Colorado who are built for the difference between 8k and 10k. Last time nationals was at Louisville, Kithuka stretched the field like taffy and the top 10 was populated by Kenyans. I'm not gonna look up the results but i think it was Kithuka, Sambu, Lalang, Lelei, Rotich, Mecheso.
So i think Koech and Rotich will definitely be top 10. Rotich could be as high as 2nd or as low as 15th. It's kind of hard to predict with him. Curtin's best chance would be to pull a kithuka and pare down the field early. -
In fact, 8 of the top 10 at 2012 Nats were Africans. Mo Ahmed technically counts. So that should say something about the tactics and course.
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runnerbro wrote:
Curtin: has beaten him once and has the ability to do it again for sure and will definitely challenge the king but my guess is he will place 2nd or 3rd after being outckicked by Ches and possibly Rotich
He didn't beat Ches. Ches lost. Ches didn't take him seriously and let him get a large lead. There's a difference. Ches only loses this against Curtin if he doesn't take Curtin seriously so Curtin really isn't THAT good.
Regarding Lalang, Lalang was injured wasn't he? -
Esp!ane wrote:
He didn't beat Ches. Ches lost. Ches didn't take him seriously and let him get a large lead. There's a difference. Ches only loses this against Curtin if he doesn't take Curtin seriously so Curtin really isn't THAT good.
Mr. Esplane, what you've just written is one of the most insanely idiotic things I've ever read. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response was there anything that could even be considered a rational thought. Everyone on this board is now dumber for having read it. May God have mercy on your soul. -
Ches is a great runner, but he did lose at Pre-Nats to Curtin. They both learned something, but Ches may be in a better position to use that in his favor. But Curtin now sees Ches as a mortal. As others have said, there are a handful who could challenge him given the right conditions and tactics.
To say Curtin has no chance is very ignorant. He has shown that he can run a fast pace solo (Pre-Nats), he has shown that he can run a fast pace in a pack and have a devastating kick (ACC), he has shown that he can run an extended acceleration at the end of a fast race (Regional). He has a 5K PR of 13:38(i), won that race with a kick and is clearly in better shape than he was then (Feb?). He won the ACC 5k outdoors with a 54 final 400m. If he hangs with the leaders and can kick as he did at ACC Cross or that ACC 5k, I wouldn't bet big money on Ches. Curtin may not win, but he is a serious threat and there are a handful of others. -
Esp!ane wrote:
runnerbro wrote:
Curtin: has beaten him once and has the ability to do it again for sure and will definitely challenge the king but my guess is he will place 2nd or 3rd after being outckicked by Ches and possibly Rotich
He didn't beat Ches. Ches lost. Ches didn't take him seriously and let him get a large lead. There's a difference. Ches only loses this against Curtin if he doesn't take Curtin seriously so Curtin really isn't THAT good.
Regarding Lalang, Lalang was injured wasn't he?
did you really say that Curtin isnt that good? Dude ran 29:07 at Panorama which is a pretty hard course when it comes to hills. The kids got talent and he did in fact beat Ches. Numbers dont lie. Ches will still probably win but dont try and discredit him. Ches is cocky for a reason. He has only lost to good runners and only a handful of them at that. Curtin is a good runner and will prove it Saturday with a top 5 performance. -
Actually everybody in the field has an equal chance of beating him!
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runnerbro wrote:
did you really say that Curtin isnt that good? Dude ran 29:07 at Panorama which is a pretty hard course when it comes to hills. The kids got talent and he did in fact beat Ches. Numbers dont lie. Ches will still probably win but dont try and discredit him. Ches is cocky for a reason. He has only lost to good runners and only a handful of them at that. Curtin is a good runner and will prove it Saturday with a top 5 performance.
Yes I really said he isn't "THAT" good. If you are really looking at the numbers then you would agree with me (which you just did by saying "Ches will still probably win it"). That has nothing to do with "discrediting" him.
Curtin is a good runner but Ches is a level above Curtin. Like you said, numbers don't lie. Ches is a ~13:10 guy. Curtin is not. So like I said before, Cheserek should win this unless he makes some bad tactical decisions (which is how he lost to Curtin before. Curtin did not "beat" him). -
Marc Scott is only guys who can out kick Ches. Nasty kick everywhere and undefeated.
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Curtin wins. He will use his same tactics as pre-nats and win again. Bank on it
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KING CHES. Period.
Seriously though. If he could beat Kithuka in XC 2 years ago then why would these chumps even come close to giving him a run for his money? The only person in the NCAA who has out kicked him can't keep up in a 10k (Jordy Williamsz).
Don't get me wrong. I would LOVE to see someone give Ches a run for his money and beat him - Curtin, Knight, Scott Etc., but that just isn't realistic.
