Is it official? Is Colorado no longer the favourites?

From what I read Saarel is very focused on his major and who knows, maybe his plan is to just graduate in 4 years and then to go grad school and focus on academics? So no reason in redshirting.

You may want to check last years 10k results at NCAAs Murphy will beat half your list for sure,if not all of them.

Everyone on the thread is using; 'maybe', 'could be', or 'unless something happens' to describe CU.

No definitive anything.

Well Magnolia Road has not gone well this year....

Tell you what, Syracuse is a different team this year, as a group ready for the last 1500m in a Cheserek-centered sit and kick race.

In the know... wrote:

Lastly, you have to look at the course that the event will be held on. Last time NCAA's were at this course the race went out screaming fast. I think this course works against CU's strengths, which could be a big factor. CU at times likes to lay back and move up over the difficult LV course as everyone else falls apart. This is a bit different. Just something to think about.

These aren't quite your "typical" CU Buffs either. IIRC, Moussa and Winter were leading quite early at NCAA's last year, and Pearson has typically been an aggressive runner

HOTFROMTHEGUN

Stanford didn't run Grant Fisher, who might have finished with McGorty and the Rosas (6-7-8) to give them about 51 pts with Sweatt at 20 in the race.

But Colorado does not run all out at Regionals. And Saarel's nationals performance can't be predicted from regionals. If Wetmore ran him, he thought he would be very good at nationals and just needed a rustbuster. Besides, Saarel can redshirt next year as a senior if they need it, can't he?

MikeD wrote:

Debdseesdsedddrrrr wrote:

[quote]MikeD wrote:

! if you think there is anyone from Air Force or Colorado State that can beat Pierce Murphy when he's trying, then you are crazy.

Ches

Curtin

Scott

Tiernan

Knight

Rotish

Koech

McGorty

Bennie

Hehir...

You may want to check last years 10k results at NCAAs Murphy will beat half your list for sure,if not all of them.

Murphy beating this whole list. Mmmm... Care to put your money where your mouth is?

COLORADO WILL WIN CONVINCINGLY.WAKE UP.

Ruffttffyffft wrote:

Looking at today's regional results, it was a very poor showing for Colorado. They may still win, but they are not really a shoe in for the victory.

Debdseesdsedddrrrr wrote:

MikeD wrote:

Ches

Curtin

Scott

Tiernan

Knight

Rotish

Koech

McGorty

Bennie

Hehir...

You may want to check last years 10k results at NCAAs Murphy will beat half your list for sure,if not all of them.

Murphy beating this whole list. Mmmm... Care to put your money where your mouth is?

Not meaning robot Ches. Anyone else is a great possibility. He will be top 10 or I'll admit I'm wrong but don't hold your breath

Colorado loses seniors Moussa, Murphy, Pearson, and Winter this year, so a national title is by no means a given next year. They will need a bunch of guys to step up in quality next year. I don't know the best candidates, based on college performances because most of the other guys haven't been competing in xc, but they do have multiple guys with faster high school stats than a number of their current studs. I count at least six non-seniors on the roster with 9 flat or better in high school:

Saarel (4:02 mile/8:45 3200m), Dressel (4:10/8:57/27th at World Junior xc), Perrin (4:09/8:55), Peterman (4:17/8:57), Klecker (4:04 mile/8:50 3200m), Gonzalez (4:16/9:00), and then among the others on the roster that could step up, there are Sheesley (4:17 mile/9:08 3200), and Forsyth (4:18/9:09/14:39 in hs//7th at US junior xc this year as well), plus any incoming transfers or freshmen next year.

For 2016 xc, then, you would probably slot in Saarel, if not redshirting, Dressel, Perrin, and Peterman, and then plenty of talent plus recruits to step in after that to maybe give them a podium finish but much more is up in the air.

http://www.cubuffs.com/SportSelect.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=600&SPID=260&SPSID=3960

logicalogic wrote:

In the know... wrote:

Lastly, you have to look at the course that the event will be held on. Last time NCAA's were at this course the race went out screaming fast. I think this course works against CU's strengths, which could be a big factor. CU at times likes to lay back and move up over the difficult LV course as everyone else falls apart. This is a bit different. Just something to think about.

These aren't quite your "typical" CU Buffs either. IIRC, Moussa and Winter were leading quite early at NCAA's last year, and Pearson has typically been an aggressive runner

You are correct, but it was a windy, slow, tactical race in Terre Haute last year. The entire field was within like 5 seconds of each other through 5k so they were able to much more easily establish position up front. No way that is the case this year.

If any brave souls decide to take it out and others follow I don't think CU can afford to lay back like they tend to at LV. I guess I'm saying I believe an honest race from the gun works against them to some degree. They have to establish position early or they run the risk of getting buried and not being able to move up as well with narrower paths and more turns than at LV's wide spaces and long straightaways. I'm sure it is noted with them, but just noting the course could potentially be a factor in how the race plays out given that it's flat, fast, and narrow.

The way i see it is colorado is now 6 deep, stanford has the best top 4 (keelan injured, wharton not fit, sweaty likely non all american). And syracuse has the best top 3. But their 4th man is likely just out of all american position. To have a chance at beating colorado these days, you need 5 all americans regardless. Murphy is likely top 10-12. And i think saarel is clutch enough to pull out a top 10, even starting so late. Moussa and winter don't look as fit as last year, but still top 20 for moussa and 30 for winter. Redshirting saarel next year makes sense because dressell, klecker and forsyth will be even better by then. Probably all american, and they can have a shot at the 2017 title. And saarel could go for the indy title. I'll have my annual nationals predicitons up on my blog later in the week. I had pretty good ones last year

They also have Reilly Freidman from Georgia. Monster Xc season last year but sick during track season so no fast times there. Just came back and did what he needed to win state.

jjjjjj wrote:

Gonzalez (4:16/9:00), and then among the others on the roster that could step up, there are Sheesley (4:17 mile/9:08 3200), and Forsyth (4:18/9:09/14:39 in hs//7th at US junior xc this year as well)]

4:16, 4:17 and 4:18? That's impossible

Everybody knows that you can't even walk on a top school even if you run 4:15...

Debdseesdsedddrrrr wrote:

jjjjjj wrote:

Gonzalez (4:16/9:00), and then among the others on the roster that could step up, there are Sheesley (4:17 mile/9:08 3200), and Forsyth (4:18/9:09/14:39 in hs//7th at US junior xc this year as well)]

4:16, 4:17 and 4:18? That's impossible

Everybody knows that you can't even walk on a top school even if you run 4:15...

Hate to bust your bubble but Friedmans pr in high school was only 4:21

MikeD wrote:

Debdseesdsedddrrrr wrote:

4:16, 4:17 and 4:18? That's impossible

Everybody knows that you can't even walk on a top school even if you run 4:15...

Hate to bust your bubble but Friedmans pr in high school was only 4:21

You think Reilly Friedman is on scholarship at Colorado? smh

MikeD wrote:

You may want to check last years 10k results at NCAAs Murphy will beat half your list for sure,if not all of them.

Murphy beating this whole list. Mmmm... Care to put your money where your mouth is?

Not meaning robot Ches. Anyone else is a great possibility. He will be top 10 or I'll admit I'm wrong but don't hold your breath

How does beating half the list for sure convert to simply being top 10...

Let's leave it at beating half that list "for sure".

Maybe Wetmore doesn't want Ben showing up at Stanford grad school with a year of eligibility left???

Ohh, the plot thickens . . .

LOL.

Debdseesdsedddrrrr wrote:

MikeD wrote:

Ches

Curtin

Scott

Tiernan

Knight

Rotish

Koech

McGorty

Bennie

Hehir...

You may want to check last years 10k results at NCAAs Murphy will beat half your list for sure,if not all of them.

Murphy beating this whole list. Mmmm... Care to put your money where your mouth is?

Scott, Knight, Tiernan, Bennie, Hehir, Curtin. Let's start with 6 he may also take McGorty and Koech over 10k as well.