Is it official? Is Colorado no longer the favourites?

rojo wrote:

Let me get this straight. CU beat the #3 team in the country (BYU) 67 to 98 whereas the one team most people think might beat them #4 Stanford lost to #17 Washington and people are saying Colorado had a bad day and are vulnerable? That's laughable logic.

CU isn't going to win 5 in a row. They 100% shouldn't risk blowing a national title to red shirt him. A bird in hand is better than two in the bush.

Smart move by Wetmore.

Jim Rosa's improvement today was important and Stanford certainly is in the hunt but reading into the regional results is absurd.

Stanford's 5th man was 42nd. Pull that off and replace with Fisher who would have been closer to Stanford's top 3 of McGorty and the Rosas and they would have beaten Washington.

I don't understand your defense of the red shirt? If he is the 6th place scorer at Nationals for CU then it is a wasted Redshirt whether they win or not. I do agree that Ben is a great insurance policy to protect the 5th position since it is a Frosh(Dressel) but if they don't win the title or he doesn't score for them it feels like a wasted shirt since he could have raced earlier and tried to knock off the rust.

Colorado men did the same as the Lobo Ladies. Lobo ladies seemed to work as little as possible yesterday, spreading only 2 seconds between 1-5 (where today's 5th runner is usually their 6th or 7th runner). It was even very obvious to the Colorado ladies that UNMs top 3-4 runners did not push it today... as I don't think they expect to beat them next week. You can never read too much into the regionals.

I just wonder why Allie O bothered to win by such a large margin? Or maybe she was just cruising the last K and still won by that margin?

An interesting discussion and then you show up...

You can see a brief video of Allie finishing at https://twitter.com/broncosportsxc It was posted yesterday - you have to scroll down a little to find it. Anyway, she doesn't appear too tired after finishing though it is hard to tell. Course looked wet and not fast. Can't even see 2nd place finisher (Neer?) anywhere in sight, so she had no reason to grind out a quick time.

Don't forget that Syrachoke always finishes lower than hyped. All the way since 2010.

Calling 4th place, with the team still claiming it was a step forward to get a trophy, (ignoring that their season was one big step forward and one backwards at NCAAs)

jsquire wrote:

Ruffttffyffft wrote:Can a team which is presently ranked out of the top 4 in the ranking take the win at NCAA?

Im not saying it can't happen, but it never has in the history of the USTFCCCA poll.

FSU 2010. I believe they came in ranked 12th before winding up 2nd (in the field and dominating the inagural "Stasies at Nashies" competition).

Wow. Don't skim-read things before caffeine. I completely missed the "take the win" part and just went with "any team ranked outside the top 4 [make the podium] at NCAA."

Real dumb on my part. Still, they DID win something, so I'm not, like, totally wrong (okay, I am).

logicalogic wrote:

what are you guys talking about? it's always made the most sense for him to redshirt next year anyways when they have all the seniors "coming off the books" as they say in other sports, and have no shot of winning, letting the kids develop

Not saying that I would have done the same, I'm just saying that he probably did that because he's thinking that he needs the security of Ben to improve his chances of winning this year. Yes, it does look like he has given up on winning next year.

People have been saying all season that Colorado has been jogging at the meets (didn't they same the same about Wisconsin)? If they were, he would not have run Ben.

It's not a move which inspires confidence.

Colorado isn't the overwhelming juggernaut we thought they might be, but they are still very much the favorites and to suggest otherwise is laughable.

It's regionals...The goal is to qualify, no bonus points for winning by 60 points this weekend. They have to race another 10k in a little over a week.

Fools!!!! Ben will not be 5th or 6th man. Dude is money and you can bet on it at Nationals. You can\\\'t 4-Peat if you don\\\'t 3 peat! if you think there is anyone from Air Force or Colorado State that can beat Pierce Murphy when he\\\'s trying, then you are crazy.

The Regional results were all over the place. Nobody but the teams on the bubble raced hard, especially in the mountain. Some of the CU guys were wearing flats. BYU rested their number two and number four men from their conference meet AND their number 4 from Wisconsin, so they potentially ran only 2!!! of their top five. Isaic Yorks was 14th in the west... After being in the top 10 at Wisco?!

Anybody who thinks these results matter is nuts. All year CU has been the favorite, with Cuse and Stanford close behind. I think BYU and Michigan could also compete with those teams next weekend, though probably not win the whole thing.

"Wetmore" and "panic" in the same sentence? I don't think so.It's not panic, it's just a good roster move, making the most out of the season with the pieces he has available. He knows what he's doing, and he wouldnt waste a redshirt unless he thinks it will help the team.Ben is getting back into racing shape and will be top 20 at nationals. Wetmore consistently gets the best out of his team when it counts and the buffs are still the overwhelming favorites..

MD Phan wrote:

I figured Wetmore putting a uniform on Ben and trying to quickly knock some rust off was a sign of panic. He had a scorer that has been sick for weeks and he was worried about the title and thought Ben may be needed.

I think one thing is official- Wetmore thought the title was in jeopardy and thus pulled Ben off the sidelines. One hell of a pinch hitter though- it'll probably get the job done.

Stanford, BYU and maybe 'Cuse would scare me if I'm Wetmore running without Ben. He'd need everyone to show up to win a title. One guy having an off day and he gets beat.

Both races went off during a rain storm. Course was very slick and super muddy. Women went first, so the conditions were a little better, but still messy.Ostrander ran alone at the front for the 2nd half of the race, not a terrible tactic that day just to get out away from others. (There were a ton of athletes covered in mud, I'm assuming there were a lot of falls, but I didn't see any from where I stood.)I'm not sure if this helps, but Ostrander had a good 20 meter lead most of the way, but nobody seemed terribly interested in chasing her down.In the men's race, two guys from WSU ran from the front most of the way. Cheserek ran then down after 6k or so, but they got their team into the national meet finishing 2-3. UW also ran hard at the front, as did Boise. UO and Stanford seemed to be cruising and the SoCal schools just seemed to be defeated by the mud, cold, and rain.

AllieO wrote:

You can see a brief video of Allie finishing at

https://twitter.com/broncosportsxc

It was posted yesterday - you have to scroll down a little to find it. Anyway, she doesn't appear too tired after finishing though it is hard to tell. Course looked wet and not fast. Can't even see 2nd place finisher (Neer?) anywhere in sight, so she had no reason to grind out a quick time.

Wow people. Many of you are looking way too much into the regional results.

This is the situation with CU: They absolutely were not going all-out yesterday. Why would they? Mark has it all planned out. It works. They trust it. Saarel literally opened up his season yesterday and the rust showed. He will definitely be better at NCAA's. That said, I do think CU could be had on the right day. The move by Wetmore to run Saarel is not necessarily panic, but speaks to a vulnerability at the back end. Murphy, Pierson, Moussa (not going to be 5th again), and Winter are rocks and will perform when it matters. Dressel has proven himself as worthy as well. BUT: Relying on freshman and/or inexperienced athletes to come through when it matters most is always a bit sketchy and Wetmore knows this. Dressel, Perrin, and Perrin are all solid runners but he doesn't want to take the chance they blow up. He will not risk losing a national title and Saarel is the ultimate insurance policy.

CU is and should be the favorite, but Stanford is absolutely a threat. To think otherwise is foolish. If things fall right and Stanford has the right day they are every bit as good as the Buffs. That said, I think people are underestimating Syracuse. Yes they have been a tease in the past, but their time has come I believe. Their top 3 is phenomenal. Obviously #'s 4,5 are the question, but the talent is there. In my opinion, they are another team that if things break right for them they could sneak in and steal the whole thing.

Lastly, you have to look at the course that the event will be held on. Last time NCAA's were at this course the race went out screaming fast. I think this course works against CU's strengths, which could be a big factor. CU at times likes to lay back and move up over the difficult LV course as everyone else falls apart. This is a bit different. Just something to think about.

Debdseesdsedddrrrr wrote:

Yes, Wetmore no longer thinks that he's a shoe in...

Ruffttffyffft wrote:

They may still win, but they are not really a shoe in for the victory.

It's "shoo-in", folks.

As Rojo said, a bird in the hand is better than two in the bush. It would indeed be a waste if he doesn't finish in their top 5 next week, but losing his 5th year when he wasn't needed this year would be far worse than losing the title this year with him on the bench.

Even without him they would still be the favorites, but Stanford's showing at Pac-12s shows that on the right day they can take down a Saarel-less CU.

MikeD wrote:

! if you think there is anyone from Air Force or Colorado State that can beat Pierce Murphy when he\'s trying, then you are crazy.

For sure, Eller (although not a bad runner) was only 22nd at Pre Nationals, so Murphy (CU's number 1 runner) will beat him at NCAA for sure. He just can't beat him when he is not running at max. Murphy is not that good.

Murphy may not finish top 10 at NCAA however. The list of good runners is just too long.

Ches

Curtin

Scott

Tiernan

Knight

Rotish

Koech

McGorty

Bennie

Hehir...

Now, if CU's number 1 runner is not top 10, where does their number 5 end up?

If you think of it however. What would have changed if Ben ran all the races this year instead of only Regionals and NCAA? Nothing. CU were undefeated during the season (could they have done better than undefeated?). They only need him for NCAA. And they really need him if they want to win...

Ask Jerry if he regrets not getting his National Champs contract bonus after finishing 2nd while redshirting Matt Withrow who made the senior national XC squad 3 months later and ran 13:35.

Regionals are a joke. A step to be taken to reach Nationals. CU qualified easily with a tempo run. They will be ready for Nationals. Anything can happen on the day, but they will line up ready to compete at their highest level at Nationals.