London Marathon won 7 times in 12 years (24 races - men and women) by athletes with suspicious blood values

Not sure I got exactly right what the claim was, but I took it that it was a) 7 London winners from 2001-2012 had high #'s, and b) these 7 winners won a total of 34 majors. Currently, the math is off 2 majors>maybe I missed some.

Majors start 2006:

Some of these runners won before 2001, like Catherine Ndereba and Khalid Khannouchi (3x Chicago in 1997, 1998, 2000, prior to the sample).

We take the winners of London 2001-2012 (12 years, 24 winners), and try to get 34 major wins from 7 London winners. That’s an average of almost 5! To get that you absolutely need Radcliffe, because there are very few with even 5 major wins, and you need Martin Lel and Khalid Khannouchi with 5 each, and you need Wilson Kipsang, Margaret Okayo, and Irina Mikitenko with 4 each, but that’s six athletes and only 29 majors, so you can’t get to 34 with 7 athletes—you can add one of Rutto, Limo, El Mouaziz (the most likely, Moroccan), Wanjiru, Kebede, and Keitany to get 32, as they have three each. Either I’m missing some major winners or got some numbers off, or they mixed up Priscah and Rita Jeptoo, or maybe they added in World or Olympic titles.

Radcliffe, 7 majors

Lel, Khannouchi 5 majors

Kipsang, Okayo, Mikitenko, 4 majors

Rutto, Limo, El Mouaziz, Wanjiru, Kebede, Keitany, 3 majors

Kipchoge, Kastor, Priscah Jeptoo, Edna Kiplagat, 2 majors

Abera, Emmanuel Mutai, Mergia, Chunxiu, Tufa, 1 major

London

2001 Abdelkader El Mouaziz (3 majors: London 2001, NYC 2000, London 1999) Morocco 2:07:09 Second victory

2002 Khalid Khannouchi (5 majors: London 2002, Chicago 2002, plus Chicago 1997,1999,2000) United States 2:05:38 World marathon record

2003 Gezahegne Abera (1 total) Ethiopia 2:07:56

2004 Evans Rutto (3 majors) Kenya 2:06:18

2005 Martin Lel (5 majors) Kenya 2:07:35

2006 Felix Limo (3 majors) Kenya 2:06:39

2007 Martin Lel Kenya 2:07:41 Second victory

2008 Martin Lel Kenya 2:05:15 Course record; third victory

2009 Samuel Wanjiru (3 majors) Kenya 2:05:10 Course record

2010 Tsegaye Kebede (3 majors) Ethiopia 2:05:19 Provisional Result

2011 Emmanuel Mutai (1 major) Kenya 2:04:40 Course record

2012 Wilson Kipsang (4 majors) Kenya 2:04:44

2013 Tsegaye Kebede Ethiopia 2:06:04 Second victory

2014 Wilson Kipsang Kenya 2:04:29 Course record; second victory

2015 Eliud Kipchoge (2 majors) Kenya 2:04:42

2001 Derartu Tulu Ethiopia (2 majors in this time frame, maybe total) 2:23:57

2002 Paula Radcliffe (7 majors) United Kingdom 2:18:56 Course record

2003 Paula Radcliffe United Kingdom 2:15:25 World marathon record; second victory

2004 Margaret Okayo (4 majors) Kenya 2:22:35

2005 Paula Radcliffe United Kingdom 2:17:42 Third victory

2006 Deena Kastor (2 majors) United States 2:19:35

2007 Zhou Chunxiu (1 major) China 2:20:38

2008 Irina Mikitenko (4 majors) Germany 2:24:14

2009 Irina Mikitenko Germany 2:22:11 Second victory

2010 Aselefech Mergia (1 major) Ethiopia 2:22:38 Initially third but Liliya Shobukhova and Inga Abitova both disqualified retrospectively.

2011 Mary Keitany (3 majors) Kenya 2:19:19

2012 Mary Keitany Kenya 2:18:37 Second victory

2013 Priscah Jeptoo (2 majors) Kenya 2:20:15

2014 Edna Kiplagat (2 majors) Kenya 2:20:21

2015 Tigist Tufa (1 major) Ethiopia 2:23:21

Boston

2001 Lee Bong-Ju South Korea 2:09:43

2002 Rodgers Rop Kenya 2:09:02

2003 Robert Kipkoech Cheruiyot Kenya 2:10:11

2004 Timothy Cherigat Kenya 2:10:37

2005 Hailu Negussie Ethiopia 2:11:44

2006 Robert Kipkoech Cheruiyot Kenya 2:07:14 2nd victory, course record

2007 Robert Kipkoech Cheruiyot Kenya 2:14:13 3rd victory

2008 Robert Kipkoech Cheruiyot Kenya 2:07:45 4th victory

2009 Deriba Merga Ethiopia 2:08:42

2010 Robert Kiprono Cheruiyot Kenya 2:05:52 course record

2011 Geoffrey Mutai Kenya 2:03:02 course record, fastest marathon ever up to that point

2012 Wesley Korir Kenya 2:12:40

2013 Lelisa Desisa Benti Ethiopia 2:10:22

2014 Meb Keflezighi United States (CA) 2:08:37 First American win since 1983

2015 Lelisa Desisa Benti Ethiopia 2:09:17

2001 Catherine Ndereba Kenya 2:23:53 2nd victory

2002 Margaret Okayo Kenya 2:20:43 course record

2003 Svetlana Zakharova Russia 2:25:19

2004 Catherine Ndereba Kenya 2:24:27 3rd victory

2005 Catherine Ndereba Kenya 2:25:12 4th victory

2006 Rita Jeptoo (4 majors+1)Kenya 2:23:38

2007 Lidiya Grigoryeva Russia 2:29:18

2008 Dire Tune Ethiopia 2:25:25

2009 Salina Kosgei Kenya 2:32:16

2010 Teyba Erkesso Ethiopia 2:26:11

2011 Caroline Kilel Kenya 2:22:36

2012 Sharon Cherop Kenya 2:31:50

2013 Rita Jeptoo Kenya 2:26:25 2nd victory

2014 Rita Jeptoo Kenya 2:18:57 3rd victory, course record

2015 Caroline Rotich Kenya 2:24:55

New York

2001 Tesfaye Jifar Ethiopia Ethiopia 2:07:43 Course record

2002 Rodgers Rop Kenya Kenya 2:08:07

2003 Martin Lel Kenya Kenya 2:10:30

2004 Hendrick Ramaala South Africa South Africa 2:09:28

2005 Paul Tergat Kenya Kenya 2:09:30

2006 Marílson Gomes dos Santos Brazil Brazil 2:09:58

2007 Martin Lel Kenya Kenya 2:09:04 2nd victory

2008 Marílson Gomes dos Santos Brazil Brazil 2:08:43 2nd victory

2009 Meb Keflezighi United States USA 2:09:15

2010 Gebregziabher Gebremariam Ethiopia Ethiopia 2:08:14

2011 Geoffrey Mutai Kenya Kenya 2:05:06 Course record

2012 Cancelled due to Hurricane Sandy

2013 Geoffrey Mutai Kenya Kenya 2:08:24 2nd victory

2014 Wilson Kipsang Kenya Kenya 2:10:59

2001 Margaret Okayo Kenya Kenya 2:24:21 Course record

2002 Joyce Chepchumba Kenya Kenya 2:25:56

2003 Margaret Okayo Kenya Kenya 2:22:31 Course record, 2nd victory

2004 Paula Radcliffe United Kingdom United Kingdom 2:23:10

2005 Jeļena Prokopčuka Latvia Latvia 2:24:41

2006 Jeļena Prokopčuka Latvia Latvia 2:25:05 2nd victory

2007 Paula Radcliffe United Kingdom United Kingdom 2:23:09 2nd victory

2008 Paula Radcliffe United Kingdom United Kingdom 2:23:56 3rd victory

2009 Derartu Tulu Ethiopia Ethiopia 2:28:52

2010 Edna Kiplagat Kenya Kenya 2:28:20

2011 Firehiwot Dado Ethiopia Ethiopia 2:23:15

2012 Cancelled due to Hurricane Sandy

2013 Priscah Jeptoo Kenya Kenya 2:25:07

2014 Mary Keitany Kenya Kenya 2:25:07

Chicago

October 7, 2001 Ben Kimondiu Kenya 2:08:52

Catherine Ndereba Kenya 2:18:47^

October 13, 2002 Khalid Khannouchi United States 2:05:56

Paula Radcliffe United Kingdom 2:17:18^

October 12, 2003 Evans Rutto Kenya 2:05:50

Svetlana Zakharova Russia 2:23:07

October 10, 2004 Evans Rutto Kenya 2:06:16

Constantina Diţă-Tomescu Romania 2:23:45

October 9, 2005 Felix Limo Kenya 2:07:02

Deena Kastor United States 2:21:25

October 22, 2006 Robert Kipkoech Cheruiyot Kenya 2:07:35

Berhane Adere Ethiopia 2:20:42

October 7, 2007 Patrick Ivuti Kenya 2:11:11

Berhane Adere Ethiopia 2:33:49

October 12, 2008 Evans Cheruiyot Kenya 2:06:25

Lidiya Grigoryeva Russia 2:27:17

October 11, 2009 Samuel Wanjiru Kenya 2:05:41

Irina Mikitenko Germany 2:26:31

October 10, 2010 Samuel Wanjiru Kenya 2:06:23

Atsede Baysa Ethiopia 2:23:40

October 9, 2011 Moses Mosop Kenya 2:05:37

Ejegayehu Dibaba Ethiopia 2:22:09

October 7, 2012 Tsegaye Kebede Ethiopia 2:04:38

Atsede Baysa Ethiopia 2:22:03

October 13, 2013 Dennis Kimetto Kenya 2:03:45

Rita Jeptoo Kenya 2:19:57

October 12, 2014 Eliud Kipchoge Kenya 2:04:11

Mare Dibaba Ethiopia 2:25:37

Berlin

2014 Dennis Kimetto Kenya 2:02:57 WR Tirfi Tsegaye Ethiopia 2:20:18

2013 Wilson Kipsang Kiprotich Kenya 2:03:23 WR Florence Kiplagat Kenya 2:21:13

2012 Geoffrey Mutai Kenya 2:04:15 Aberu Kebede Ethiopia 2:20:30

2011 Patrick Makau Musyoki Kenya 2:03:38 WR Florence Kiplagat Kenya 2:19:44

2010 Patrick Makau Musyoki Kenya 2:05:08 Aberu Kebede Ethiopia 2:23:58

2009 Haile Gebrselassie Ethiopia 2:06:08 Atsede Habtamu Besuye Ethiopia 2:24:46

2008 Haile Gebrselassie Ethiopia 2:03:59 WR Irina Mikitenko Germany 2:19:19

2007 Haile Gebrselassie Ethiopia 2:04:26 WR Gete Wami Ethiopia 2:23:17

2006 Haile Gebrselassie Ethiopia 2:05:56 Gete Wami Ethiopia 2:21:34

2005 Philip Manyim Kenya 2:07:41 Mizuki Noguchi Japan 2:19:12

2004 Felix Limo Kenya 2:06:44 Yoko Shibui Japan 2:19:41

2003 Paul Tergat Kenya 2:04:55 WR Yasuko Hashimoto Japan 2:26:32

2002 Raymond Kipkoech Kenya 2:06:47 Naoko Takahashi Japan 2:21:49

2001 Joseph Ngolepus Kenya 2:08:47 Naoko Takahashi Japan 2:19:46 WR

Tokyo 2013-

2015 Endeshaw Negesse Ethiopia 2:06:00 Birhane Dibaba Ethiopia 2:23:15

2014 Dickson Chumba Kenya 2:05:42 Tirfi Tsegaye Ethiopia 2:22:23

2013 Dennis Kimetto (3 majors) Kenya 2:06:50 Aberu Kebede Ethiopia 2:25:34

rekrunner wrote:

This sounds to me like, using the current ARD/Sunday Times "expert terms", he would have been flagged as "suspicious" (need more testing), but not flagged as "likely doping"

I don't agree with your "sounds to me". Prof Lundby would not have been as alarmed as he was if Daly's results would have been flagged.

The rest I'll leave to the discerning reader and follower of the sport.

What was a suspicious World Record of sub 2:06 16 years ago is now commonplace for a 3rd or worse place finish in the big marathons. Is anyone really surprised that doping is involved?

jewbacca wrote:

Let's play along with your assumption that all the other London winners doped. If they have no abnormal values we assume they microdosed, yes? But if their microdosing is so subtle that it produced no change in blood values, then why dope at all?

For dramatically improved recovery at least.

If the athlete gets unlucky and has a blood test within 24 hours of a micro-dose epo cycle, the worst that would happen is a non-positive change in scores. Meanwhile they are able to train much more and much harder than a clean athlete.

rekrunner wrote:

Can you be more specific?

Paula's quote comes from an article dated August 2002.

ADAMS first went online in mid-2005 (as a trial).

The IAAF told us that blood test results from 2009-on were put into ADAMS, and that such test results were visible to WADA.

Which result was in ADAMS before Aug 2002?

Who are you calling the liar?

[/quote]

I'm calling Paula a liar. But, you make a valid point.

Paula could prove the doubters like me wrong and give Seppelt/ARD/BBC permission to identify her and publish her results. She's got nothing to hide, right? Apparently she does.....

Let me be clear about something "visible to WADA" means nothing. WADA has no authority to open a case. What good does looking at a bunch of scores do if they can do nothing with positives or suspicious profiles?

jjjjjjj wrote:

Not sure I got exactly right what the claim was, but I took it that it was a) 7 London winners from 2001-2012 had high #'s, and b) these 7 winners won a total of 34 majors. Currently, the math is off 2 majors>maybe I missed some.

That's not how I read it. I believe there were 7 first, 6 second and 7 3rd places achieved by athletes with suspicious values in London over 12 years (still not sure which 12, but I believe it's 2001-2012), and 34 wins in the 6 major marathons over the same period, but not necessarily by the same athletes. It's also not clear to me when they started including Tokyo, and whether they include Shobukova, Goumri and Abitova, who are known to have had biological passport violations (I believe they are included).

Once these points are clarified, it is relatively easy to compute the probability of each athlete to be among the set of athletes with suspicious profiles. I have made a first attempt, but especially the last point makes a huge difference, and to a lesser degree whether the period is 2001-2012 or 2004-2015.

It's 2001-2012: Sunday Times only has the data from that period.

The strange thing is that I read in the BBC article that blood tests only started in 2002? London organisers were hounding the IAAF and once they were ready after 2001 it started immediately.

for our eyes wrote:

long sox wrote:

But I don't know why more people haven't been calling out Mikitenko.

Four out of four posters before you who made a list called out Mikitenko. Excepting the poster who went all Radcliffe.

Obligatory quote:

"One of [Radcliffe's] blood tests was conducted at the London Marathon, and Radcliffe, who is involved in setting up a new website for the IAAF educating young competitors about the dangers of drug abuse, has put in a request to UK Sport to publicise the details. 'I have absolutely no objection to my test being released,' she said. 'I would like to know it myself.'"

http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/general/athletics-hard-work-not-drugs-the-secret-of-radcliffes-success-172526.html

Yes I saw some of the other posts, but I wasn't really meaning this thread, but in the past people tended to focus on the East European and African runners and ignored Mikitenko who ran faster than most of then.

While we're at it, can anyone explain why the Japanese women can't run sub 2:20 or even sub 2:22 anymore?

Nice link. Here's another good one:

Paula Radcliffe: Jail Time Would Be Fair For Dopers

Strange.. at the same time their young sprinters are coming on heaps and bounds!

I always thought that London was just naive letting Shobukova win their race etc. but applying Occam's Razor - simplest answer is probably correct. They trusted the IAAF thinking they would tell them if anyone was suspect. But despite the impression that they were on top of things, they only spend 2m per year on it, and a lot falls through the net.

The move to drop first time offences from 4 to 2 years before moving it back makes me think they were more naive in this area than we gave them credit for..

What I read from the bbc recap is vague:

'The winners of 34 major city marathons - one in four - "should have faced censure or at least been investigated over evidence of potential blood doping within their test results."

Athletes whose results were considered suspicious by the Sunday Times's experts collected more than £4m in prize money from those marathons.

In London, seven wins, six second places and seven third places were secured by "athletes whose blood tests were deemed suspicious by the experts".'

So, the 34 major city marathons, which I'm presuming means one of the six majors, are total, and not specifically majors won by London winners who were suspicious. And it indicates that 7 London wins (plus six seconds and seven thirds) were by athletes with suspicious blood tests, but not 7 separate winners. So, Paula, for instance, could account for 3 on her own. It would be a lot better if they just published the numbers in a chart with the athletes's names, because this game of suggestion is worse for the athletes and the public. From 12 years of winners of five majors plus Tokyo (and this was a major only from 2013, which is outside the 2001-2012 time period used for London, so this is just a very confusing data drop), you have 120 victories plus whatever # of Tokyo wins they are counting, and then we don't know if they are counting those already caught and their wins nullified. Indeed, for runners like Shobhukhova, are they counting wins not nullified, but not nullified years or both or what?

My picks are the non-Kenyans and non-Africans. There you go.

(You've got to exclude Kenyans first, then exclude Africans, as we all know blood doping doesn't work for top Kenyans and Africans are just hard workers. And you got your answers.)

34 marathon Majors wins or 34 major marathon wins?

I have just looked up the original article, and can clarify this:

"They found that from 2001 to 2012 the London marathon was won seven times by athletes who had recorded suspicious blood tests at some point in their careers. As there were 24 male and female golds in those 12 years, this is more than 29% of the total.

Worldwide, of the 142 male and female winners in the six big city marathons over the same period, the winners of 34 showed evidence of potential blood-doping within their test results. They collected more than PS3m in prize money for their victories."

The period is 2001-2012. They number of 142 corresponds to 5*24 + 1 *22, most likely meaning 12 years of Berlin, Boston, Tokyo, London and Chicago, and 11 years of NYC (which wasn't held in 2011).

The article also talks about Goumri and Shobukova, describing Shobukova's rise to the top, and how much prize money she won. They only say that these are the names they are allowed to reveal, but there is no hint that they are not included in the count (I don't want to copy & paste the whole article). To me, it looks very likely that they are included. Abitova is not mentioned.

I will compute the updated likelihood for each athlete to have submitted a positive test using all the constraints this evening.

I don't think it would end there. In my experience, the doubters aren't swayed by contradictory evidence. They will come back with claims of micro-dosing, or "Lance always tested clean" too.Professor Andrew Jones took measurements from Paula, over a 12 year period from 1993 to 2005, and published two papers with physiological data and her progression. He showed a steady progression of improved running economy, coupled with a steady VO2max measurement over the whole period. He showed that her improvements were due to reasons central to running economy, rather than aerobic changes.

pop_pop! wrote:

...

Paula could prove the doubters like me wrong and give Seppelt/ARD/BBC permission to identify her and publish her results. She's got nothing to hide, right? Apparently she does.....

...

And funnily enough, run enough and that's how the body gets better at running, improved running economy.. I guess that's the application of 100,000 hours of training in running.

rekrunner wrote:

I don't think it would end there. In my experience, the doubters aren't swayed by contradictory evidence. They will come back with claims of micro-dosing, or "Lance always tested clean" too.

The doping apologists are not really swayed by contradictory evidence either.

You always come back with some excuse why the latest doper got busted or that it doesn't even work anyway.

You could find the latest Kipcheater with an EPO syringe in his ass, and you'd still come up for an 'innocent' reason for what he was up to.

Of course the evidence shows what it shows, not more and not less.In this case, you can say Kipcheater cheated, but not more.

trollism wrote:

rekrunner wrote:

I don't think it would end there. In my experience, the doubters aren't swayed by contradictory evidence. They will come back with claims of micro-dosing, or "Lance always tested clean" too.

The doping apologists are not really swayed by contradictory evidence either.

You always come back with some excuse why the latest doper got busted or that it doesn't even work anyway.

You could find the latest Kipcheater with an EPO syringe in his ass, and you'd still come up for an 'innocent' reason for what he was up to.

...if it is 7 Africans , watch out for the racial carpstorm that will hit.